Analysis: The upcoming US CPI data is expected to be favorable for Bitcoin, but the likelihood of a breakthrough rise is low

ChainCatcher news, according to CoinDesk, the U.S. Department of Labor will release the January CPI data today at 21:30 (Beijing time). If the inflation data is lower than expected, it may boost market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, pushing down U.S. Treasury yields and weakening the dollar, which would be beneficial for risk assets like Bitcoin.

However, data from Mott Capital Management shows that the two-year inflation swap rate has risen to 2.8%, a new high since the beginning of 2023, indicating that the market expects future inflation pressures may rise.

Analysts from BlackRock and the Royal Bank of Canada believe that persistent inflation in the service sector and wage growth above the Federal Reserve's 2% target may force the Fed to maintain high interest rates. CME data shows that the market expects a 54% probability that the Federal Reserve will only cut rates once this year or remain on hold. Bitcoin is currently consolidating in the range of $90,000 to $110,000, with little likelihood of a breakout in the short term.