Is Binance frantically selling off its reserve assets? Is a new altcoin season about to arrive?

Source: Talking About Li and Outside

Today, let's continue to casually chat about some market observations:

1. Is Binance starting to sell off company reserve assets?

Last night (February 10), someone forwarded a post to me, stating that by monitoring Binance's (hereafter referred to as BN) official website's Proof of Reserves data, it seems they are recently withdrawing a large amount of assets from the company reserves.

This morning, I found that some partners in the group were also discussing this topic, and different partners held different views. For example, some said that the Proof of Reserves is not owned by the NB company, and the data shared in the posts online does not match the historical data on the website.

Regardless, this does seem to be quite a "news" item that could keep BN in the headlines, allowing KOLs, media, and self-media to drive traffic and topics. So, what exactly is being said online?

Next, let's briefly reconstruct this event and the related issues:

For instance, according to a snapshot from December 2024, BN reported a non-customer net balance (BN wallet balance - customer net balance) of 46,896 BTC, 2,989,902,855 USDT, 216,312 ETH, 5,839,372 BNB, and 442,234 SOL.

However, by February 1 of this year, that balance changed to 2,747 BTC, 2,757,258 USDT, 0 ETH, 4,869,720 BNB, and 4,179 SOL.

If we tally up all of BN's reserves, we find that just last month, BN stripped away nearly $8 billion from a $14 billion company reserve, although the overall reserves still meet a 100% ratio.

So, why is BN withdrawing such a large amount of company reserve assets? Some speculate the following possible reasons:

1) Continuing to pay fines to the U.S. government

Previously, BN was accused by the U.S. Department of Justice of violating sanctions and remittance laws, resulting in CZ serving some time and paying a $4.3 billion fine. However, it is said that they have only paid half of the fine so far, with another $2.2 billion still owed to the U.S. government.

2) Repaying FTX creditors

In November last year (2024), the bankrupt FTX sued BN and CZ (the founder of BN), seeking to recover $1.8 billion in exorbitant stock buyback funds. I have not found the latest court ruling on whether this money will be compensated, and it seems unclear at this point, but this $1.8 billion could also be a potential expense for BN.

3) Responding to new regulatory issues, needing to spend money for peace of mind

4) Needing to invest or expand business operations

In addition to these speculations, various different claims are circulating online, and there may be reasons we are unaware of. For example, some say that Binance is making year-end profit provisions. We can't speculate further on this; perhaps in the coming days, official personnel will come out to explain or "debunk" it.

That said, recently, BN's reputation online has indeed started to decline, with various token listing controversies and internal personnel engaging in insider trading (for instance, in the case of the TST token, it was reported that dozens of internal personnel's wallets participated in the records, with profits exceeding millions of dollars), giving the impression that they are increasingly lacking principles and bottom lines for profit. Even CZ couldn't help but publicly criticize BN's token listing process, as shown in the image below.

Overall, BN's asset reserves still maintain a healthy 100% ratio. Compared to those second- and third-tier exchanges, BN's asset security is relatively sound, including some of my own assets being held there.

In summary, I hope BN does not become the next FTX; otherwise, it would cause a significant short-term black swan impact on this field.

2. Is a new altcoin season coming?

Now, anyone who dares to bring up the topic of an altcoin season will be met with disdain from some, as people's sentiments have generally fallen into pessimism, especially those who are heavily invested in altcoins and are stuck.

To avoid being harshly criticized, I suggest first searching for the keyword "altcoin season" in our public account to understand the series of articles we previously published on the topic. Based on the comprehensive viewpoints in those articles, you can then look at the upcoming content, which might help me avoid severe backlash.

In an article a few days ago (February 9), we mentioned that many projects are accelerating towards their TGE, which feels somewhat similar to the sentiments around September and October of last year. I wonder if history will repeat itself…

If (note, this is just a hypothetical) history does repeat itself, we might soon see the revival of certain popular sectors, such as the AI sector possibly leading the rebound, or the MemeCoin sector experiencing a resurgence… but which sector will lead the rebound, we cannot predict.

As for whether there will be a genuine effective rebound, leading to another brief altcoin season, or if it will just be a flash in the pan before continuing to stagnate, we also cannot predict. However, for the first and second quarters of this year, I personally maintain my previous viewpoint that there is still a probability of a brief new opportunity arising in the market.

For example, looking at the overall trend of TOTAL2 on a weekly chart, we seem to be at a relatively critical position at this stage, as shown in the image below (note the comparison of the two intersecting parts).

In addition to some technical indicators, there are also those catalysts we have previously outlined in our articles, such as the U.S. government's friendly policies towards cryptocurrencies, Ethereum upgrades, more altcoin ETFs being approved, and the Federal Reserve's expected interest rate cuts in June… etc.

In short, at this stage, whether from a technical, news, or sentiment perspective, it seems we are in a state of indecision, and this state often indicates that we may soon welcome greater volatility in the market. Do you remember our previous saying? Market trends often arise in despair, explode in divergence, and end in madness.

However, it is also a kind reminder that if another altcoin rebound opportunity arises (which also means the market may enter a phase of greater volatility), it is advisable to exit in an orderly manner in batches, avoid being overly attached, and do not chase highs. Strictly manage your positions according to your risk preferences; this may be one of the few best exit opportunities left this year.

As for whether there will be a larger market trend before the end of the year, or whether the market will enter a bear market next year (2026), or if the market will break existing cyclical patterns and enter a slow bull market… we cannot accurately answer or predict these questions; we can only take it one step at a time.

Continue to remain optimistic and patient while maintaining a sense of crisis, and ordinary people should try to stay away from leverage and contracts.

That's all for today.