Cryptocurrency Market Performance

Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $3.57 trillion, with BTC accounting for 57.44%, which is $2.05 trillion. The market cap of stablecoins is $215.6 billion, with a 7-day increase of 2.95%, of which USDT accounts for 64.82%.

This week, BTC's price showed a range of fluctuations, with the current price at $104,726; ETH also showed a range of fluctuations, with the current price at $3,338.

Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, a small number increased while most decreased, including: TRUMP with a 7-day increase of 426.7%, RAY with a 7-day increase of 40.1%, XCN with a 7-day increase of 368.2%, and VTHO with a 7-day increase of 107.2%.

This week, the net inflow for the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF was $1.603 billion; the net inflow for the U.S. Ethereum spot ETF was $139.4 million.

On January 24, the "Fear & Greed Index" was 75 (the same as last week), with the sentiment being: 6 days of greed and 1 day of extreme greed.

Market prediction: This week, due to the significant impact of celebrity tokens like TRUMP, most tokens are in a downward trend, while stablecoins continue to increase, with the increment larger than the previous two weeks. There has been a large net inflow into U.S. BTC and ETH spot ETFs. Currently, Trump has not issued more executive orders regarding cryptocurrencies, but based on personnel appointments in related departments, "crypto administration" is imminent. The market is still in the mid-upward phase of a bull market and can continue to hold. Popular sectors to watch include DeFi, and you can also check "Hotcoin Web3 Research" for in-depth reports.

Understanding Now

Review of Major Events of the Week

1. On January 19, the topic of "Trump issuing cryptocurrency" briefly ranked second on Douyin's social chart, gaining significant attention from outside the circle;

2. On January 20, Jito Labs co-founder Buffalu stated that due to unprecedented load levels, Jito Labs' block engine API is experiencing severe service degradation. Although the Solana network continues to operate and process blocks, transactions submitted through Jito Labs' services are affected. The engineering team has been working for several hours to fix the issue and will provide updates after full service is restored;

3. On January 21, the Trump family crypto project WLFI announced the purchase of various assets to celebrate Trump's inauguration, including $47 million in ETH, wBTC, and others;

4. On January 22, Bloomberg reported that Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire stated that stablecoin regulation is a top priority and that we can expect to see an executive order on cryptocurrencies soon. He also mentioned that Mark Uyeda's selection as SEC acting chair is an excellent choice;

5. On January 22, market news reported that SEC acting chair Mark Uyeda announced the establishment of a new crypto working group. The new cryptocurrency task force will focus on developing a comprehensive and clear regulatory framework for crypto assets. Senior advisors Gabbert and Asher will serve as the chief of staff and chief policy advisor for this working group, respectively;

6. On January 22, Trump posted on his social media platform Truth Social, stating, "I just called the mother of Silk Road founder Ross William Ulbricht to tell her that I am honored to have just signed a full and unconditional pardon for her son Ross";

7. On January 23, market news indicated that CME futures for XRP and SOL will launch on February 10 after regulatory review;

8. On January 22, Cow DAO released "CIP-61: Price Improvement Shares, Revenue Shares, and Fees on the CoW Protocol" on Snapshot. It is reported that this CIP proposes to implement a specific method and ultimately complete the revenue model experiment. The main goal is to continue using price improvement sharing as the primary revenue model while retaining the option to test new (price improvement sharing/fee) strategies. If successfully passed, the proposal will take effect on February 1, 2025;

9. On January 23, the anime project Animecoin, co-launched by Arbitrum and Azuki, has launched the ANIME airdrop check page, which will open for claims tonight at 9 PM (UTC+8);

10. On January 24, Cointelegraph stated on social media that Trump indicated he would request a rate cut;

11. On January 24, CZ commented on X platform regarding "U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis serving as chair of the Senate Banking Committee on Digital Assets," stating, "The U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve is basically confirmed. Cryptocurrency is moving forward at crypto speed again."

Macroeconomics

1. On January 21, according to CME's "Fed Watch": the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in January is 99.5%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 0.5%;

2. On January 21, the SEC released a statement regarding Gary Gensler's departure;

3. On January 22, ECB board member Knot stated that there are few obstacles to another rate cut next week. The data is encouraging, confirming that we will return to our target;

4. On January 23, Japanese listed company Remixpoint announced that it has completed a new round of cryptocurrency investment. The company spent 500 million yen on January 21 to acquire 31.27 Bitcoins, with an average purchase price of 15.99 million yen. As of now, the company's total cryptocurrency investment portfolio is valued at 8.789 billion yen, with Bitcoin holdings of 447.43, Ethereum 1,102.86, Solana 12,581.38, XRP 802,100, and Dogecoin 2,802,300, with an overall floating profit of 1.289 billion yen;

5. On January 23, the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending January 18 was 223,000, with an expectation of 220,000 and a previous value of 217,000;

6. On January 24, the official page showed that the SEC released SAB 122, officially rescinding SAB 121, which prevented banks from custodying cryptocurrencies;

7. On January 24, the Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, increasing the target rate from 0.25% to 0.50%, the largest rate hike since 2007, with rates reaching a new high since October 2008. Since restarting rate hikes in March last year, the Bank of Japan has raised rates three times in less than 12 months.

ETF

According to statistics, from January 20 to January 24, the net inflow of the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF was $1.603 billion; as of January 24, GBTC (Grayscale) had a total outflow of $21.608 billion, currently holding $21.706 billion, and IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $60.123 billion. The total market value of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs is $125.063 billion.

The net inflow of the U.S. Ethereum spot ETF was $139.4 million.

Envisioning the Future

Event Preview

1. CoinDesk will hold Consensus Hong Kong from February 18 to 20, 2025, in Hong Kong;

2. ETHDenver 2025 will be held from February 23 to March 2, 2025, in Denver, USA.

Project Progress

1. Cryptocurrency derivatives exchange Bitnomial announced plans to launch a derivatives clearing organization and stablecoin clearinghouse Bitnomial Clearinghouse regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on January 30, 2025;

2. Ethereum L2 network Fuel's second phase Genesis Drop will airdrop 150 million FUEL, with eligibility review and claims taking place from January 30 to March 2, 2025; the FS-1 event will also airdrop 150 million FUEL;

3. Soarchain will launch a group competition on January 30, where participants will be divided into different groups based on nationality, measuring a new metric each week and awarding prizes to the winning groups each week;

4. OneKey Card will gradually cease services, with OneKey Card services stopping on January 31;

5. The Trump-supported NFT series has launched the "Trump Bitcoin Digital Trading Card" using the Ordinals protocol on Bitcoin, with the first batch of 160 pieces. Users who obtain 100 NFT cards from the "Mugshot Edition" and submit their Bitcoin wallet are eligible to claim through the NFT market Magic Eden, with a deadline of January 31, 2025;

6. The ME Foundation stated that ME airdrop users must complete wallet binding and claims before February 1, and all ME tokens must be claimed through the ME mobile app.

Important Events

1. The Indian cryptocurrency trading platform Mudrex has suspended withdrawals until January 28 due to compliance updates;

2. The U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) is seeking industry opinions before March 31, planning to strengthen customer protections for crypto accounts, hoping to require service providers to compensate consumers who lose funds due to hacking or unauthorized transactions, suggesting that digital wallets be held to the same standards as bank accounts;

3. The revised UK Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 will take effect on January 31, 2025, clarifying that cryptocurrency staking (a key component of proof-of-stake blockchains like Ethereum and Solana) does not fall under the definition of "collective investment schemes";

4. South Korea's Ministry of Personnel Management has requested all government agencies to reassess the enforcement of restrictions on public officials' cryptocurrency holdings. Each agency must review its compliance and submit a report by January 31.

Token Unlocking

1. Axelar (AXL) will unlock 13.51 million tokens on January 27, valued at approximately $9.02 million, accounting for 1.14% of the circulating supply;

2. Open Campus (EDU) will unlock 19.07 million tokens on January 28, valued at approximately $9.39 million, accounting for 1.91% of the circulating supply;

3. Conflux (CFX) will unlock 87.5 million tokens on February 2, valued at approximately $13.14 million, accounting for 1.72% of the circulating supply.