Cryptocurrency Market Performance

Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $3.5 trillion, with BTC accounting for 56.43%, amounting to $1.98 trillion. The market cap of stablecoins is $208 billion, which has increased by 1.04% in the last 7 days, with USDT making up 66.22%.

This week, BTC's price has shown a fluctuating upward trend, with the current price at $102,089; ETH has also shown a fluctuating upward trend, with the current price at $3,423.

Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most have risen while a few have fallen, including: XDC with a 7-day increase of 45.78%, FARTCOIN with a 7-day increase of 56.21%, XRP with a 7-day increase of 42.37%, and MORPHO with a 7-day increase of 36.97%.

This week, the net inflow for Bitcoin spot ETFs in the U.S. was $1.484 billion; the net inflow for Ethereum spot ETFs in the U.S. was $205 million.

On January 17, the "Fear & Greed Index" was at 75 (higher than last week), indicating a sentiment of greed over the past 7 days.

Market predictions: This week, the market is influenced by U.S. CPI data, the impending inauguration of Trump, continuous growth of stablecoins, and significant inflows into U.S. spot ETFs, leading to a substantial market rise. The AI sector rebounded significantly in the first half of the week and faced a correction in the latter half. Next week, the market is expected to experience significant fluctuations due to policies following Trump's inauguration, so position management is advisable. This week, attention can be paid to "quasi-ETF" related tokens.

Understanding Now

Weekly Major Events Review

1. On January 12, according to Glassnode data, the trend of Bitcoin ownership is undergoing a significant shift. The proportion of Bitcoin held by new investors (addresses holding for less than three months) has risen sharply, currently accounting for 49.6% of the network's liquidity. New capital is increasingly participating in the market, even as experienced investors are reallocating their holdings;

2. On January 12, FTX creditor representative Sunil disclosed the "preliminary allocation timeline for FTX repayment plan" on X:

   "Creditors with claims under $50,000 are expected to receive approximately $1.2 billion in compensation; FTX requires creditors to complete pre-allocation requests (claim registration) by January 20 to ensure participation in the initial allocation, with repayments expected not to begin before this date; the first repayments are expected to start on February 25 and may continue until March 4. This timeline provides creditors with clear guidance to meet FTX's requirements in a timely manner to facilitate compensation";

3. On January 13, according to CloverPool data, Bitcoin mining difficulty was adjusted at block height 878,976, increasing by 0.61% to 110.45 T, a new historical high. The average hash rate over the past seven days across the network is 776.91 EH/s, with the next difficulty expected to increase by 0.70% to 111.22 T;

4. On January 14, according to CoinPost, Japanese listed company Remixpoint increased its holdings by 33.34 Bitcoins, valued at approximately 500 million yen, bringing its total Bitcoin holdings to 333.189 Bitcoins, worth about 4.89 billion yen;

5. On January 15, according to Yonhap News Agency, South Korean authorities arrested President Yoon Suk-yeol;

6. On January 15, the U.S. December unadjusted CPI year-on-year rose to 2.9%, marking a rebound for the third consecutive month, reaching a new high since July 2024, in line with market expectations, with the previous value at 2.7%;

7. On January 16, according to market news, Nasdaq submitted the Canary Litecoin ETF 19B-4 filing application, initiating the regulatory review process;

8. On January 17, Tether launched the cross-chain stablecoin USDT0, aimed at expanding USDT to new blockchains, providing a seamless experience for users and developers while maintaining a 1:1 peg with USDT on Ethereum. USDT0 is built using LayerZero's OFT standard for deploying and transferring assets on new chains;

9. On January 17, according to official news, crypto wallet Phantom announced the completion of a $150 million Series C financing round at a valuation of $3 billion, led by Sequoia Capital and Paradigm, with participation from a16z and Variant.

Macroeconomics

1. On January 15, according to The Block, outgoing SEC Chairman Gary Gensler stated in an interview with Yahoo Finance that the SEC "has never said" that Bitcoin and Ethereum are securities, and neither he nor former SEC Chairman Jay Clayton has ever classified Bitcoin as a security;

2. On January 16, the SEC reached a settlement with crypto lending firm Plutus Lending, which paid a civil penalty of $1.65 million. The SEC stated that Plutus operated under the name Abra, launching a retail crypto asset lending product called Abra Earn, which was not registered with the agency;

3. On January 16, according to CME's "Fed Watch" data, following the release of U.S. CPI data last night, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in March slightly increased to 28.2%, up from 23.2% the previous day. The probability of no rate cut in March remains high at 71%;

4. On January 16, according to CoinDesk, investors are focusing on Trump's inauguration on January 20, which could become a key catalyst for Bitcoin and cryptocurrency prices. However, the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates on January 24. According to charts shared by analyst Michael Kramer on X, the current market expects a 90% probability of a rate hike on January 24;

5. On January 16, according to the Financial Times, pension funds are attempting to purchase Bitcoin. Pension funds in Wisconsin and Michigan have become some of the largest holders of U.S. stock funds focused on cryptocurrencies, while some pension fund management agencies in the UK and Australia have also made small allocations to Bitcoin through funds or derivatives in recent months.

ETF

According to statistics, from January 13 to January 17, the net inflow of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs was $1.484 billion; as of January 17, GBTC (Grayscale) had a total outflow of $21.608 billion, currently holding $21.295 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $58.12 billion. The total market capitalization of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs is $121.722 billion.

The net inflow of U.S. Ethereum spot ETFs was $205 million.

Envisioning the Future

Upcoming Events

1. CoinDesk will hold Consensus Hong Kong from February 18 to 20, 2025, in Hong Kong.

Project Progress

1. GraFun launched a new token issuance mechanism called Alpha Launch, with the first use case being the BNB Chain AI agent token BAD Coin, scheduled to launch on GraFun on January 20, 2025;

2. Pump Science released a roadmap update, with mouse experiments for Rifampicin (RIF) and Urolithin A (URO) scheduled for January 25, 2025; a new compound will be launched in collaboration with VitaDAO on February 25; supplement pre-orders and market launch will open on March 25; and human trials will take place on April 25;

3. The AI-based Telegram gaming platform Catton AI token CATTON will launch on the BNB Chain on January 26, 2025. Catton AI will integrate Wise Monkey IP and launch smart AI NPCs. 50% of the total supply of CATTON will be used for ecological airdrops, with 37% allocated to MONKY holders, 10% to Catton AI players, 2% to FLOKI holders, and 1% to ApeCoin DookeyDash players.

Important Events

1. Rostin Behnam, Chairman of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), will step down on January 20. In his last public speech, Rostin Behnam stated that cryptocurrency has dominated every quarter of his term, and concerns about customer protection, increasing fraud and market abuse incidents, broader market resilience, and even financial stability have intensified in the absence of federal legislation;

2. Trump's U.S. presidential inauguration date is set for January 20, 2025;

3. SEC Chairman Gary Gensler will step down on January 20, 2025;

4. A U.S. judge has postponed the CFTC vs. Gemini case to January 21, originally scheduled for January 13. This case stems from the CFTC's 2022 allegations against Gemini, accusing it of providing false or misleading statements when applying to offer Bitcoin futures contracts in 2017;

5. Asset management firm Calamos Investments will launch a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) with 100% downside protection, CBOJ, which will go live on January 22 at the Chicago Options Exchange. The fund aims to protect against Bitcoin price volatility by combining U.S. Treasury bonds with options linked to the CBOE Bitcoin U.S. ETF Index.

Token Unlocking

1. Bittensor (TAO) will unlock 216,000 tokens on January 21, valued at approximately $10.4 million, accounting for 1.03% of the circulating supply;

2. Immutable (IMX) will unlock 24.52 million tokens on January 24, valued at approximately $34.39 million, accounting for 1.23% of the circulating supply;

3. Altlayer (ALT) will unlock 195 million tokens on January 25, valued at approximately $20.95 million, accounting for 1.95% of the circulating supply.