Cryptocurrency Market Performance

Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $3.3 trillion, with BTC accounting for 56.82%, which is $1.88 trillion. The market cap of stablecoins is $206.1 billion, down 0.14% over the past week, with USDT accounting for 66.82%.

This week, BTC's price showed a volatile downward trend, with the current price at $94,496; ETH showed a volatile upward trend, with the current price at $3,247.

Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most have declined while a few have risen, including: XDC with a 7-day increase of 13.75%, AI16Z with a 7-day decrease of 34.42%, FARTCOIN with a 7-day decrease of 45.9%, and BIO with a 7-day decrease of 45.2%.

This week, the net inflow for Bitcoin spot ETFs in the U.S. was $496.6 million; the net outflow for Ethereum spot ETFs in the U.S. was $195.3 million.

On January 11, the "Fear & Greed Index" was at 69 (lower than last week), with the sentiment being: 6 days of greed and 1 day neutral.

Market Prediction: This week, the market was affected by news of disappointing non-farm payrolls, the Federal Reserve's certainty of not lowering interest rates in January, and the U.S. Department of Justice being authorized to sell $6.5 billion worth of Bitcoin, leading to a significant market decline. Some projects in the AI sector performed well this week, ETF inflows were average, and stablecoins experienced negative growth. It is estimated that next week, the market will gradually digest some emotions, and significant improvement will depend on policy guidance after Trump's re-election. This week, continuous attention can be paid to the AI sector.

Understanding Now

Review of Major Events of the Week

1. On January 5, according to DefiLlama data, Raydium surpassed Uniswap in 24-hour trading volume, ranking first at $2.286 billion, while Uniswap's 24-hour trading volume was $2.131 billion;

2. On January 6, Bio Protocol officially announced that with the launch of the current BioDAO, BIO token holders will be able to participate in the Launchpad, including: showing support by binding BIO tokens to the new BioDAO; being whitelisted for the new BioDAO;

Managing BioDAO liquidity and milestone-based incentives. The release of BioDAO will become autonomous and community-managed, allowing more BioDAOs to flow into the Bio Protocol ecosystem;

3. On January 6, EigenLayer announced that it will co-host an AI agent hackathon with Eliza Labs (@ai16zdao).

The event will take place from February 22 to March 3, 2025, in downtown Denver, and registration is now open;

4. On January 7, Satoshi Action Fund co-founder Dennis Porter posted on X that the 14th U.S. state is now preparing to introduce "strategic Bitcoin reserve" legislation;

5. On January 8, Aave announced that Aave V3 has been deployed to the Aptos testnet, marking the first deployment of the Aave protocol on a non-EVM network. This testnet phase aims to validate the security, stability, and performance of Aave V3 on Aptos in preparation for a potential mainnet release;

6. On January 9, the U.S. Department of Justice was authorized to sell $6.5 billion worth of Bitcoin related to the Silk Road case;

7. On January 10, Cointelegraph stated on social media that the UK Treasury has revised financial laws, explicitly stating that cryptocurrencies required for POS (Proof-of-Stake) blockchains (such as Ethereum and Solana) do not fall under collective investment schemes and are therefore not subject to the usual strict regulations;

8. On January 10, according to Cryptonews, Russia has begun selling Bitcoin seized during its investigation of the Infraud hacker organization in 2023. This move indicates Moscow's intention to exchange over 1,000 Bitcoins for fiat currency;

9. On January 10, CNN reported that New York State Supreme Court Judge Juan Merchan ruled on the "hush money" case, ordering Donald Trump to be released unconditionally. The ruling found Trump guilty on 34 counts in this case, but due to his important stage in the presidential transition process, he was released unconditionally without any punishment.

Macroeconomics

1. On January 8, according to CME's "Fed Watch": the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in January is 95.2%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 4.8%;

2. On January 8, Coinbase's Chief Legal Officer stated that U.S. Judge Failla approved Coinbase's motion for an interlocutory appeal and paused the district court's litigation. This is a significant legal victory for Coinbase, meaning it can appeal the SEC's charges to the Second Circuit Court;

3. On January 9, outgoing SEC Chairman Gary Gensler stated in an interview with Bloomberg TV that he is proud of the work the agency has done and mentioned that there is still "work to do" less than two weeks before his departure. Gensler reiterated his claim that the crypto space is "full of bad actors";

4. On January 9, Bitcoin.com reported that Emotimi Agama, Director General of the Nigerian Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), warned that some applicants for virtual asset service provider (VASP) licenses would be rejected for failing to meet regulatory requirements. The SEC issued crypto licenses to Busha Digital and Quidax Technologies for the first time through the Accelerated Regulatory Incubation Program (ARIP) in August 2024;

5. On January 9, the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes indicated that the U.S. economy is experiencing steady growth in real GDP in 2024. Since the beginning of 2024, labor market conditions have eased, but the unemployment rate remains low. The inflation rate for consumer prices is lower than the same period last year, but still slightly high.

Staff noted that the strikes in October and the impact of hurricanes suppressed job growth, while the easing of these impacts in November provided a similar boost to job growth. In the third quarter, foreign economic growth accelerated, particularly in the Eurozone and Mexico. However, recent economic indicators show a significant weakening of growth momentum in foreign economies in the fourth quarter, with sluggish manufacturing activity and weak private consumption expenditure.

Inflation in foreign economies continues to ease. In most developed economies, overall inflation rates have slowed to near or below target levels, mainly reflecting the transmission effects of declining energy prices earlier this year. However, in some of these economies, inflation rates in the service sector remain high;

6. On January 10, the U.S. adjusted non-farm payrolls for December were 256,000, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 160,000, marking the highest level since March 2024. The adjusted non-farm payrolls for December were 256,000, with an expectation of 160,000, and the previous value was revised from 227,000 to 212,000.

ETF

According to statistics, from January 6 to January 10, the net inflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs in the U.S. was $496.6 million; as of January 10, GBTC (Grayscale) had a total outflow of $21.52 billion, currently holding $19.346 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $52.948 billion. The total market capitalization of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs is $110.383 billion.

The net outflow of Ethereum spot ETFs in the U.S. was $195.3 million.

Envisioning the Future

Upcoming Events

1. a16z GAMES will hold the SPEEDRUN 004 accelerator event in San Francisco from January 6 to March 23, 2025;

2. Virtuals' first offline gathering for the Chinese-speaking community, Virtuals First CN Community Meetup, will be held on January 13 from 13:30 to 17:30 in Shanghai;

3. Story will host the "Story China Tour | Shanghai Station" offline event on January 14 from 14:00 to 18:00;

4. CoinDesk will hold Consensus Hong Kong from February 18 to 20, 2025, in Hong Kong.

Project Progress

1. The airdrop claim period for Puffer Finance (PUFFER) is from 19:00 Beijing time on October 14, 2024, to 19:00 on January 14, 2025;

2. L1 blockchain Celo will migrate to Celo L2 on January 16, 2025.

Important Events

1. Google's new advertising policy will take effect on January 15, 2025, requiring crypto ads targeting the UK to register with the FCA;

2. The cryptocurrency-themed film "Crypto Man," directed by South Korean director Hyeon Hae-ri, will be released on January 15, 2025. The film is based on a real cryptocurrency collapse incident that caused losses exceeding 50 trillion won (approximately $34.9 billion), starring the late actor Song Jae-rim.

Token Unlocking

1. Sei (SEI) will unlock 224 million tokens on January 15, valued at approximately $86.68 million, accounting for 2.25% of the circulating supply;

2. ApeCoin (APE) will unlock 15.38 million tokens on January 17, valued at approximately $17.22 million, accounting for 1.54% of the circulating supply;

3. Ondo (ONDO) will unlock 2.57 billion tokens on January 19, valued at approximately $3.2 billion, accounting for 25.73% of the circulating supply.