How to stay forward-looking in cryptocurrency investment?

In last Saturday's online discussion, an audience member asked the following question:

When the Bitcoin inscription ecosystem emerged, many enthusiasts, including myself, delved deeply into the inscription ecosystem. However, there are still many OG players in the inscription ecosystem who are stubbornly sticking to it and unwilling to leave.

Why did I feel last year that the inscription ecosystem might have problems? Then I stepped out and began a new exploration in the AI agency ecosystem?

My answer at that time was:

This may be related to curiosity. I try to maintain an interest in new developments. Whenever I discover something new, I always take a look first, which may lead to new explorations and attempts.

To further specify the method of implementation, I quoted a famous saying by Mr. Hu Shi during the discussion:

"Boldly hypothesize, cautiously verify."

This phrase was originally used by Mr. Hu Shi to describe his approach to scholarship, but I believe this method is also very appropriate in the field of investment.

I remember having repeatedly written in articles:

For new things and new scenarios, I always prefer to focus on their advantages and potential.

If I use this mindset to guide myself in examining new things, I can amplify the prospects and potential that new things may harbor to a certain extent, allowing us to see the upper limit of the value that a new thing may generate.

With this upper limit, we have room for imagination when making investments and valuations.

This is bold hypothesis.

When I estimate that a new thing has a certain room for imagination and I am also interested in it, I will immediately participate.

Regarding my mindset after participating, I have also repeatedly written in previous articles:

I will pay more attention to its problems and shortcomings, mainly looking at whether there are issues in these aspects:

Does this track still have prospects? Is the project team still performing well? Is the project construction still progressing?

This is cautious verification.

If one or more of these aspects have problems, I will be alert; if there are no significant issues, I will continue to hold but focus my main energy on exploring new directions.

In this round of development in the inscription ecosystem, it initially gave me a large room for imagination. However, later on, the entire ecosystem did not achieve significant breakthroughs in technology, scenarios, or applications. I believe the main reason is likely due to the limitations of Bitcoin's own technical architecture.

So after realizing this, I no longer focused my main energy on this ecosystem but turned to other directions, which led to my later exploration of DeSci and AI agencies.

Not only did I have this shift in this round of market conditions, but I also had a similar experience in the previous cycle:

From initially focusing on the DeFi ecosystem to later turning my attention to NFTs, that was the case.

The reason for the shift was also very similar: by that time, DeFi had already lost momentum.

Around mid-2021, the entire DeFi ecosystem basically showed no significant innovation or application; the overall situation in various tracks had basically solidified, and new applications had at most minor innovations, which had low barriers to entry.

So my main energy began to shift towards exploring new directions, and then I discovered that overseas communities were starting to chase NFTs, so my main focus shifted entirely to NFTs.

Although my main experience was in NFTs afterward, I had always held onto the DeFi tokens from that time, and I only sold them all later when I sold Bitcoin and Ethereum.