BlackRock may initiate a hard fork for Bitcoin? Is the bull market about to peak soon?

Source: Talking about Li and Talking about the Outside

Last month, BlackRock released a video about Bitcoin that lasts about 3 minutes, in which a statement seemed to touch a sensitive nerve for many people, as shown in the image below. In the video, they mentioned:

"There is no guarantee that bitcoin's 21 million supply cap will not be changed"

"Cannot guarantee that Bitcoin's supply of 21 million will not change"

The reason this video has recently made some Bitcoin supporters or media feel uneasy is that people have begun to suspect: BlackRock may initiate a hard fork of Bitcoin.

So, does BlackRock really have the idea of forking Bitcoin?

Next, we will explore this question step by step through three dimensions!

1. The Changing Relationship Between BlackRock and Bitcoin

In 2017, BlackRock's co-founder said in a media interview: "Bitcoin just shows you how much money laundering demand there is in the world, that's all." As shown in the image below.

In 2018, BlackRock formed a team to begin exploring potential investments in digital currencies and blockchain.

In 2021, BlackRock publicly expressed optimism that Bitcoin would become a global market asset and officially began to engage in Bitcoin, with its global allocation fund gaining some Bitcoin exposure through Bitcoin futures issued on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME).

In 2022, BlackRock executives publicly acknowledged Bitcoin as "digital gold" and stated that Bitcoin has the potential to fundamentally change the financial industry.

In June 2023, news emerged that BlackRock had submitted an application for a Bitcoin spot ETF to the SEC. As shown in the image below.

In August 2023, BlackRock invested $384 million in four Bitcoin mining companies. In addition, they established partnerships with some major crypto participants (such as Coinbase and Circle). As shown in the image below.

In January 2024, the Bitcoin spot ETF was officially approved, and just seven weeks later, IBIT (the BTC ETF launched by BlackRock) surpassed the $10 billion mark. As of January 6, 2025, this Bitcoin ETF, which was established only 11 months ago, has accumulated over $54 billion in assets, becoming one of the most successful products in ETF history. As shown in the image below.

2. Historical Hard Forks of Bitcoin

Since the birth of Bitcoin, attempts to expand its capacity have never ceased, and thus, there have been multiple hard forks of Bitcoin.

In simple terms, a fork may occur when there is a change in the Bitcoin network protocol or when two or more blocks have the same block height, and this fork will affect the validity of network rules, so consensus must be reached for the fork; otherwise, a permanent split will occur, leading to a hard fork.

Based on the different objects and purposes of hard forks, they can mainly be divided into the following three categories:

(1) Hard Forks of Bitcoin Clients

For example, Bitcoin XT, which forked in 2015, changed the block size limit to 8 MB/block, and the TPS was also increased to 24. At its peak, this fork protocol had over 40,000 nodes running, but just a few months later, it lost user interest and was basically abandoned.

Another example is Bitcoin Classic and Bitcoin Unlimited, which forked in 2016.

(2) Hard Forks of Bitcoin (BTC)

This type has historically been the most common type of fork. Forks of Bitcoin mainly create a new blockchain network by changing network rules and sharing transaction history with Bitcoin prior to a certain time.

Notable or representative forked coins include:

On August 1, 2017, BCH (Bitcoin Cash) forked at block 478558, where each holder of 1 Bitcoin (wallet address) received 1 BCH. BCH is arguably the most successful hard fork coin to date, with a market cap still maintaining at $9.4 billion.

On October 24, 2017, BTG (Bitcoin Gold) forked.

On November 15, 2018, BSV (Bitcoin SV) forked.

On November 15, 2020, XEC forked.

And so on… As shown in the image below.

According to incomplete statistics, there are at least 70 coins that have forked from Bitcoin (BTC), as shown in the image below, but most of these forked coins are used for speculation or scams (i.e., using the name of the fork to commit fraud).

(3) Experimental Hard Forks

In addition to the two types of hard forks mentioned above (client hard forks and BTC hard forks), there is another type that is also quite common, which we can refer to as experimental hard forks of Bitcoin.

For example, LTC (Litecoin) belongs to this category, and some people refer to such forked coins as "Bitcoin's altcoins" because they have the same implementation principles as Bitcoin in terms of technology.

3. Would BlackRock Succeed in Initiating a Hard Fork of Bitcoin?

For staunch believers in Bitcoin, the fixed supply of 21 million is one of the core tenets of Bitcoin consensus and is absolutely not allowed to change. Changing the supply could directly undermine Bitcoin's core value, leading to a collapse of trust. Although there have been many fork events in history and nearly a hundred types of Bitcoin forked coins have emerged, BTC remains BTC.

Of course, some Bitcoin supporters believe in flexibility. They think Bitcoin needs to increase its supply to solve some security budget issues, as the main logic supporting their view is that with Bitcoin's halving mechanism, future block rewards will further decrease, which will reduce miners' income, and Bitcoin's transaction fees may not cover miners' operating costs, potentially affecting the security of the Bitcoin network.

As for the statement in the video released by BlackRock at the beginning of our article, whether it means they really intend to change Bitcoin or if it is merely a simple reminder to the Bitcoin community, we cannot know for sure; time will tell.

From the information currently available, it seems that BlackRock also has some new considerations. For example, in the documents submitted to the SEC for IBIT (iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF), we can find the following description on page 27:

"In the event of a hard fork of the Bitcoin network, the Sponsor will, if permitted by the terms of the Trust Agreement, use its discretion to determine which network should be considered the appropriate network for the Trust's purposes."

"In the event of a hard fork of the Bitcoin network, if permitted by the terms of the Trust Agreement, the Sponsor will use its discretion to determine which network should be considered the appropriate network for the Trust's purposes."

Although this document does not clearly indicate or show that BlackRock intends to participate in forking Bitcoin, they do have some plans to respond to Bitcoin forks.

However, in our own view, we do not believe that forking Bitcoin will succeed; at most, it will create another new BCH or LTC, just like history. Moreover, a fork would also mean that Bitcoin's valuation would decrease, which is unlikely to be accepted by the market. At the same time, the Bitcoin community is unlikely to abandon the existing Bitcoin network to support the so-called environmentally friendly fork.

Or to take a step back, even if BlackRock really forks Bitcoin in the future and creates a more environmentally friendly "Bitcoin," perhaps due to their influence, they may temporarily dominate and attract some capital inflow, leading to a short-term impact on the price of existing Bitcoin, and may even affect large holders like MicroStrategy (which, as of January 6, 2025, has accumulated 446,400 Bitcoins, with a total purchase cost of about $27.9 billion, and an average purchase price of about $62,397). However, from a longer-term perspective, a centralized "Bitcoin" can never defeat decentralized Bitcoin; BTC will always be BTC.

However, at least one thing is worth continuing to think about: how can we uphold the core value of the Bitcoin protocol?

4. In the Last Part of the Article, Let's Briefly Discuss the Market

At different stages, the topics discussed by everyone are different. For example, in the past few days, I have noticed that one of the main topics of discussion in the group is opinions on "bull market top escaping." Some partners have also expressed their insights, as shown in the image below.

Regarding this issue, various KOLs on the internet certainly have their own opinions. Some say it's already at the top and to clear out quickly; some say it peaked in March this year; some say it peaked in May; others say it won't peak until the end of the year; and some even say it won't peak until 2026…

As for whether the bull market has already peaked? Or when exactly will the bull market peak? We cannot provide precise answers to such questions.

Everyone has different goals, positions, risk preferences, etc., and almost everyone psychologically hopes to always buy at the lowest point and sell at the highest point, but this is actually unrealistic.

As the boss Heng said in the group a couple of days ago: what suits you is the best. Almost every method has people making money and losing money because the timing and intensity of execution are different. Ultimately, the path must be walked by oneself. If you don't understand, either don't touch it or truly understand it, knowing where the risks are, where the profits are, whose money you are making, when to make it, and how to make it. As shown in the image below.

Regarding "escaping the top," different people may have different understandings. Some believe that escaping the top means selling all at the highest point to maximize profits. But for us…

…This article is not finished, and we will continue to update the remaining content through Talking about Li and Talking about the Outside.