Article Author: Echo, MetaEra

Source: MetaEra

It's that time of year again for year-end summaries. The market trends of 2024 are complex and varied, with the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs, the halving event arriving as expected, prices soaring, hash rates reaching new highs, ecosystems emerging, political landscapes shifting, and continuous positive news… Numerous factors are driving BTC to ignite a global investment frenzy, with prices hitting new highs and breaking the $100,000 mark. The Google Trends index has more than doubled compared to last year, marking a shining moment! For the entire cryptocurrency industry, 2024 is a milestone year. Each significant event marks the trajectory of Bitcoin and the entire cryptocurrency market's future.

This report uses time as a thread and events as nodes, as MetaEra reviews the key moments that have influenced Bitcoin's fate. Let's delve into the major events of Bitcoin in 2024 and experience the glory and hardships of this year together.

Moment of Crypto Unleashing: Bitcoin Spot ETF Approved

On January 10, a milestone transformation occurred on the American financial stage—BTC ETF was approved. This allows publicly listed companies, pension funds, and various institutional investors to legitimately enter this mysterious realm through this financial instrument, marking the beginning of a new era of publicly purchasing and holding Bitcoin.

In April, the first batch of Hong Kong Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETF products applied by the Hong Kong subsidiaries of Huaxia, Bosera, and Harvest Fund received official approval from the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission. Subsequently, on April 30, these highly anticipated products were officially listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

The market cheered for the launch of ETFs, deepening the product offerings in the crypto market, with a large influx of institutions entering, filled with excitement. Past doubts shifted towards the pursuit of value storage, as traditional capital flowed into the crypto world, making crypto investment increasingly aligned with the Web 2.0 market.

In the short term following the announcement, the overall performance of the Bitcoin market remained stable, with no significant fluctuations. Many questioned the ETF's effectiveness, and conspiracy theories among institutions emerged, with claims of "fancy tricks, no real action" echoing. All these uncertainties acted like a magnet, attracting countless investors and industry observers, becoming the most suspenseful chapter in Bitcoin's future development. Amidst the undercurrents, Bitcoin adhered to the "time machine theory," waiting for new momentum to prove its value over time.

Image Source: SoSoValue

Bitcoin Halving: A Key Turning Point in Destiny

On April 20, Bitcoin underwent a halving at block height 840,000, reducing the block reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC.

Typically, Bitcoin's price tends to rise after a halving, as evidenced by the previous three halvings, which all resulted in new highs. Many investors held similar expectations for the halving in April 2024, believing it would undoubtedly serve as a new driving force for price increases following the ETF actions.

However, looking at the price months after the halving, Bitcoin experienced a brief pullback before not immediately reaching new historical highs. Instead, it began to soar significantly only after a series of events, including the halving, conferences, political elections, regulatory changes, and strategic reserves in the industry. From the halving mechanism and past halving history, the impact of halving is substantial, usually leading to market volatility and increased speculative activity in the crypto space; it reshapes the mining landscape, reducing miners' profit margins; and stimulates technological innovation and community development within the blockchain ecosystem. The halving event may also hedge against inflation, enhancing Bitcoin's appeal as a long-term investment asset.

This information indicates that while halving helps reinforce Bitcoin's scarcity narrative, macroeconomic factors also significantly influence Bitcoin's price. The mysterious force of Bitcoin cannot be accurately predicted based on history; it refreshes people's understanding at every stage, and we cannot halt its progress. As Binance CEO Richard Teng stated: we need to look further ahead and view market performance from the perspective of market cycles. We should not be anxious about when bull and bear markets will arrive but focus on the long-term trends and fundamentals of the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin consistently surprises you with its extraordinary price increases during moments of doubt, calmness, and anxiety. We just need to wait; Bitcoin remains great.

BTC Ecosystem Service Providers: Miners, Strong Confidence vs. Survival Crisis?

From the miners' perspective, the Bitcoin mining landscape in 2024 is ever-changing. Not only has the halving caused hash prices to drop, creating an economic rollercoaster, but the development of inscriptions and runes in the first half of the year has quietly altered the primary revenue sources for miners, akin to an ecological awakening. In the past, mining relied solely on traditional block rewards, but with these emerging phenomena sprouting like mushrooms after rain, the focus of revenue has gradually shifted to infrastructure service gas fees. For instance, during Bitcoin's fourth halving, transaction fees surged, and Rune tokens paid high fees at halving blocks, becoming a significant component of miners' income. Statistics show that since January 1, 2024, standard financial transactions accounted for 67% of overall miner fee income, Runes accounted for 19%, and BRC-20 and Ordinals transactions combined accounted for 14%, with gas fee revenue increasing daily.

Against this backdrop, the role of miners is undergoing a profound transformation. They are no longer just simple block producers but are becoming infrastructure service providers within the Bitcoin ecosystem. Leveraging the network resources and infrastructure advantages accumulated through mining, miners can provide services for various transactions and earn gas fees. This shift deeply integrates miners into all aspects of the Bitcoin ecosystem, linking their fate closely with the entire ecosystem while exploring a more sustainable development path under the new economic model.

Bitcoin Conference: The Source of Market Dynamics

By mid-year, on July 27, the Bitcoin 2024 conference took place in Nashville, where well-known politicians like Trump and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. took the stage. Their remarks and proposals regarding Bitcoin were like heavy bombs, creating ripples at the conference and throughout the entire cryptocurrency industry.

Trump delivered a nearly one-hour speech, starting an hour late, but the tens of thousands of attendees remained enthusiastic. In his speech, Trump fully acknowledged BTC's status as a scarce asset and a safe haven, asserting that BTC would surpass gold to become the world's largest asset class. He emphasized that the U.S. must maintain its status as a superpower in cryptocurrency and stated that if elected, he would fire SEC Chairman Gary Gensler, who has been hindering the development of cryptocurrency through compliance measures, on his first day in office. He also made 13 major commitments regarding cryptocurrency:

• On the first day, I will fire Gary Gensler and appoint a new SEC chairman.
• If elected, I will establish a strategic national Bitcoin reserve for the U.S. government.
• The U.S. government will retain 100% of its holdings.
• Bitcoin will soar to the moon.
• Do not sell your Bitcoin.
• Bitcoin may one day surpass gold in market value.
• I reaffirm my commitment to reducing Ross Ulbricht's sentence.
• There will never be a CBDC during my presidency if elected.
• Bitcoin and cryptocurrency will soar in unprecedented ways.
• Bitcoin does not threaten the dollar; the current U.S. government threatens the dollar.
• The U.S. will become the global capital of cryptocurrency and the world's Bitcoin superpower.
• Bitcoin represents freedom, sovereignty, and independence from government coercion and control.
• I assure the Bitcoin community that on the day I take office, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris's anti-cryptocurrency campaign will end.

Whether due to his personality or to amuse the audience, he notably improvised at the end: "Have fun, whether it's Bitcoin, cryptocurrency, or anything else." Riding the momentum of the conference, he garnered significant political support for his blueprint.

It was like a dazzling political and financial feast. The market price performance during and after the Bitcoin conference sometimes soared to new heights and sometimes briefly corrected to build momentum. The conference acted as a massive vortex of crypto information, where various insights on Bitcoin's technological innovations, policy interpretations, and market trends converged and then rippled out into the entire cryptocurrency field. The industry's reactions to politicians' remarks and actions were varied, with anticipation for time to validate them.

Bull Market Outlook: Positive Impact of the U.S. Election

On November 6 at 14:27, the U.S. presidential election concluded, with Trump emerging as the final winner, returning to the White House at the age of 78 with the support of the crypto community.

Trump's victory and subsequent series of pro-crypto measures heralded a significant positive impact on Bitcoin's price. Following the election results, the Bitcoin market reacted swiftly, with investors flooding in based on strong expectations of favorable future policies.

Upon taking office, he announced multiple measures beneficial to the crypto industry, including plans to repeal the SAB 121 Act on January 20, clearing obstacles for traditional financial institutions to enter and promoting the institutional development of crypto assets, thus providing a legitimate channel for substantial potential funds to flow into the Bitcoin market, expanding its market capacity and capital depth; following through on commitments made at the Bitcoin conference, he plans to replace the former SEC chairman with a crypto-friendly individual, Paul Atkins, on his first day in office, sending a strong signal of regulatory relaxation to the market and boosting investor confidence; promoting the establishment of a strategic Bitcoin reserve to influence the market from a supply-demand perspective, retaining Bitcoin ownership while expanding expectations, reducing selling pressure in the market, and increasing its appeal as a strategic asset; planning to halt government Bitcoin sales and use Bitcoin as an investment holding asset; and his companies are negotiating with the Intercontinental Exchange regarding the potential acquisition of the cryptocurrency exchange Bakkt, injecting new vitality and imagination into Bitcoin's trading ecosystem and attracting more investors to participate, indirectly aiding in price increases.

Bitcoin is riding the wave of favorable U.S. policies, charging forward on the trajectory of rising prices, with its future development space and potential appearing increasingly vast under this series of positive factors. Welcome to the new era of cryptocurrency propelled by Trump!

New Political Landscape: Core Political Figures Express Views, Government Reserves Enter the Scene

Driven by historic market surges, some countries are considering establishing national Bitcoin reserves, and we are pleased to witness a significant trend: an increasing number of political figures are recognizing its value.

U.S. President-elect Trump stated he would make the U.S. the world's cryptocurrency capital, proposing not to sell the Bitcoin held by the U.S. government but to hold it as a strategic reserve asset long-term.

Russian President Putin signed a law on taxing digital currencies, defining digital currencies as property applicable to foreign trade payments, exempting mining and sales from VAT, requiring mining infrastructure operators to report to tax authorities, and taxing personal income based on actual income; Putin also emphasized at a forum that no one can ban Bitcoin and other electronic payment methods, as they are new technologies that will continue to develop.

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba: restructuring the Web3 and crypto policy departments, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party disbanded the existing Web3 project group, establishing a dedicated department within the party's digital society promotion department, led by the former secretary-general of the Web3 project group, although the new department's responsibilities have yet to be clarified.

The South Korean State Council passed the enforcement decree of the "Virtual Asset User Protection Act," which took effect on July 19, requiring virtual asset service providers to secure user deposits through banks and granting them the right to suspend users' cash and virtual asset deposits and withdrawals based on reasonable grounds.

El Salvador President Nayib Bukele proposed leasing the country's volcanoes to miners for sustainable Bitcoin mining, utilizing geothermal energy to reduce mining costs; previously, the country successfully mined Bitcoin worth approximately $46 million using geothermal energy.

Argentinian President Javier Milei advocates separating cryptocurrency from state control, criticizing central bank digital currencies, promoting private management of cryptocurrencies, and warning against government overreach.

The Monetary Authority of Singapore announced support for the commercialization of asset tokenization plans, gathering financial institutions from multiple countries to conduct industry trials and encouraging the establishment of industry standards to promote the commercialization and promotion of tokenized capital market products.

Surinamese presidential candidate Maya Parbhoe promised that if elected in 2025, he would make Bitcoin legal tender, gradually replacing the Surinamese dollar, planning to dissolve the central bank, cut taxes, privatize public services, and use Bitcoin's transparency to combat corruption, stating that Bitcoin is key to rebuilding the country's financial infrastructure.

Polish presidential candidate Sławomir Mentzen promised to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve if elected.

The efforts and statements of these political figures indicate that Bitcoin is poised to occupy a more significant position in the future financial landscape, steadily stepping into the grand vision of the global economic system, shining like a new star and attracting the attention of the political arena.

Regulatory Winds Shift: Institutions Flood In

As the regulatory environment in 2024 becomes more open and transparent, the crypto industry is entering a new era. Amid this wave, the "dual repair of coins and stocks" model is gradually becoming a favorite among listed companies, with many enterprises incorporating Bitcoin into their asset strategic reserves. Among them, Tesla and MicroStrategy stand out, achieving "diamond hands victory" with their steadfast holding strategies. MSTR's stock price surged from around $194 to nearly $500 in just about a month, an increase of approximately 150%; in the Hong Kong stock market, the "twin stars" BoYa and Meitu, two Bitcoin giants, hold 2,641 and 940 BTC, respectively; the first publicly traded cryptocurrency exchange, Coinbase, reported total profits of $804 million, with a price-to-earnings ratio of about 7.88 times.

Such results have attracted more listed companies to follow suit. On November 19, Nano Labs Ltd (Nasdaq: NA) announced plans to allocate part of its remaining cash flow to Bitcoin, holding it as a long-term strategic reserve asset; on the same day, U.S. listed company Genius Group Limited (GNS) announced it had spent $10 million to buy 110 BTC at an average price of $90,932; niche e-commerce platform LQR House Inc. (LQR), focused on spirits and beverages, announced its board had approved the purchase of $1 million worth of Bitcoin as part of its capital management strategy; on November 20, the board of U.S. listed biopharmaceutical company Acurx Pharmaceuticals (ACXP) approved the purchase of $1 million in Bitcoin as a reserve asset; on the same day, another U.S. listed company, Hoth Therapeutics (HOTH), announced its board approved the purchase of up to $1 million in Bitcoin… It is evident that many listed companies have fully recognized BTC's value storage function and its role in boosting stock prices, joining this "BTC strategic reserve competition."

Image Source: HODL15Capital

BTC Ecosystem: Lying in Wait for Spring to Bloom

The Bitcoin ecosystem resembles an accelerated version of the crypto circle, from the birth of the Ordinals protocol at the end of 2022, to the small NFT boom at the beginning of 2023, followed by a brief bear market in mid-2023, where everyone was active in various spaces discussing the future, and then the BRC20 ignited the second small bull market. By the fall of 2023, the market returned to silence, followed by the third peak in early 2024, and has since been lying in wait. In just two years, the entire crypto circle has experienced the alternating bull and bear markets of three to four decades.

Over the past year, Bitcoin's market dominance has significantly increased, rising from 45.27% to 56.81%, with a substantial increase in spot ETF holdings. A new market centered around Bitcoin as the core asset, with ETFs and U.S. stocks as funding channels, and U.S. listed companies as carriers, has fully opened, highlighting the necessity of developing its ecosystem and improving capital efficiency. In terms of Layer 2, 77 projects have made moves over the past three years, and in the first half of 2024, driven by the ETF boom, some old projects saw increased trading volumes and token prices, with various solutions emerging, totaling a locked value of $3 billion, which is expected to grow significantly in the future. New execution standards have emerged in the Layer 1 execution layer, with activities steadily increasing but lacking sustained momentum. In other infrastructure areas, interoperability solutions like bridges and WBTC are mainstream, with more solutions expected to be launched; in terms of security layers, interoperability may threaten asset security, and related security solutions like Babylon's Bitcoin timestamp and staking protocols have emerged, along with new technologies like data availability layers (DA layers), such as Nubit, releasing Bitcoin's potential value.

Currently, the Bitcoin ecosystem is still in a relatively disharmonious position. However, compared to last year, there has been significant progress. The Bitcoin ecosystem will not miss the upcoming explosive bull market, and there are still many narratives waiting to be explored. The previous dormancy and accumulation have built up enough strength. A large number of innovative projects are on the way.

Witnessing History: Bitcoin Breaks $100,000 for the First Time, Where to Next?

On December 5 at around 10:30 AM, the BTC price surged past $100,000, with a 24-hour increase of nearly 5%, marking Bitcoin's first breakthrough of the $100,000 barrier as expected. Meanwhile, Ethereum surpassed 3,800 USDT, with a 24-hour increase of 5.35%; SOL broke through 230 USDT, with a 24-hour decline narrowing to 2%.

Image Source: OKX

The media effect triggered by Bitcoin's price surpassing $100,000 has successfully brought Crypto and decentralization into the mainstream public eye. It has prompted the public to look back at its past, from its humble beginnings to its current proud standing, with its price ascent resembling a grand legend. Counting from that iconic Pizza Day, it has endured sixteen years of trials.

It has gradually moved from the margins to the center. When Bitcoin first broke $1, many may not have anticipated its astonishing potential; and when it crossed significant thresholds like $100 and $1,000, the entire world took notice. Now, breaking through $100,000 has pushed Bitcoin to a whole new height.

Finally, may Bitcoin continue to create miracles, and may those of us who believe in Bitcoin create wonders.