Web3 AI Daily Review (2024/12/30)

I. Attention Value - Market Highlights

1. Market Conditions

(1) Macroeconomic Environment:
l The Federal Reserve reassesses the impact of Trump's new government on the economy and inflation, increasing uncertainty about rate cuts
Renowned journalist Nick Timiraos pointed out in The Wall Street Journal that the Federal Reserve is reevaluating the potential impact of Trump's new government on the U.S. economy and inflation. Insiders revealed that Fed Chair Powell expressed dissatisfaction with some officials' public comments, believing they too directly linked Fed policy to changes in Trump's policies. Currently, the market generally expects the Fed's future rate cuts to be slower and more cautious. Analysts note that the prospects for Fed rate cuts in 2025 are filled with uncertainty, and investors need to brace for potential economic turmoil brought by the Trump administration. According to CME data, in January next year, the probability of the Fed maintaining rates is 87.2%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 12.8%. By March next year, the probability of maintaining the current rate is 50.6%, the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 44.1%, and the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 5.4%.
(2) Web3 Sector:
l Bitcoin falls below $95,000 again, market sentiment weakens and capital outflows intensify
The crypto market continues to experience volatility, with Bitcoin starting a new round of decline last night, hitting a low of $93,000, marking a new low for the past week. According to Coinglass data, the funding rates on mainstream centralized exchanges (CEX) and decentralized exchanges (DEX) indicate a generally bearish market. Meanwhile, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $287 million on Friday, with a cumulative net outflow of $376 million last week. During the market adjustment, tokens on CEX platforms performed relatively well, while the hype around AI Agents continues, with significant capital inflows.

2. Hot Events

(1) Macroeconomic Environment:
l a16z Crypto opposes new regulations from the U.S. Treasury, claiming they threaten the future of DeFi innovation
Michele Korver, the regulatory head of a16z Crypto, expressed the company's confidence in DeFi on social media, stating that DeFi will make financial services and the digital economy more convenient, efficient, interoperable, reliable, and consumer-centric. However, Korver pointed out that the new broker report rules recently issued by the U.S. Treasury pose a direct threat to this vision and may hinder the future of DeFi innovation in the U.S. a16z Crypto supports the lawsuit filed by the Blockchain Association, DeFi Education Fund, and the Texas Blockchain Council, arguing that the IRS and Treasury have exceeded their statutory authority, violated the Administrative Procedure Act (APA), and may be unconstitutional. Korver emphasized that a16z will continue to fight for the future of DeFi in courts, Congress, and with the support of the new administration.
(2) Web3 Sector:
l Malaysia's Securities Commission takes action: Bybit ordered to cease operations for unregistered activities
The Malaysian Securities Commission has taken strict enforcement action against the cryptocurrency trading platform Bybit and its CEO for operating crypto asset trading activities locally without proper registration. The regulator stated in a press release on Friday that Bybit must immediately cease its operations on its website, mobile app, and other digital platforms in Malaysia, and is required to complete rectification within 14 working days starting from December 11. Additionally, Bybit has been ordered to terminate all advertising activities aimed at Malaysian investors and close Telegram groups that provide support to local users.
The regulator stated that this decision is based on concerns about whether the platform complies with local regulatory requirements and protects investor rights. According to Section 7(1) of the Capital Markets and Services Act 2007, operating a digital asset trading platform (DAX) without the Securities Commission's recognition as a registered market operator (RMO) is illegal. As early as July 2021, Bybit and its CEO were placed on the Malaysian Securities Commission's investor warning list for similar violations.

3. Hot Narratives

l AI agent market rises against the trend, ai16z's market cap hits an all-time high
AI agents have once again attracted widespread attention. According to SoSoValue data, despite the overall pullback in the crypto market, the AI agent sector has risen against the trend, with a 24-hour increase of 1.54%. ai16z recently released a token economics update proposal, focusing on innovations in the Eliza framework during the Launchpad phase in Q1 2025, through the acquisition of mature technologies and teams, and achieving multi-chain integration to enhance launch fees, staking, and other value capture mechanisms. The second phase focuses on ecological growth and incentive synergy, aiming to enhance the mutual value of multiple products, strengthen the connections between ai16z tokens, and incentivize developers through buybacks and ecological funds. Subsequently, ai16z's market cap soared to $1.5 billion, setting a new all-time high, reflecting the market's recognition of the potential of AI agents.

II. Attention Value - Hot Projects

1. Project Introduction
l $SLINKY | ZK | @Slinky_Sol
- Narrative: The largest airdrop in SOL's history, representing a breakthrough in Solana token technology.
- $SLINKY's market cap surpassed $10 million within half an hour of its launch yesterday, then retraced to $7 million, currently reported at $11 million.
- 10% of the total supply is allocated to wallets holding more than 0.006 SOL during the snapshot on August 30, totaling 27,775,857 wallets, utilizing ZK Compression for true large-scale distribution. Traditional airdrop methods require 55,550 SOL as transaction fees, while using Slinky's technology only requires 22.2 SOL.

III. Attention Value - Sector Rotation

1. Hot Sectors
   
   Source: Dune, Dot Labs
   

Source: Dune, Dot Labs

2. Internal Sector
   

Source: Dune, Dot Labs