Summary and Outlook - Highlights and Missteps of Web3 in 2024, Where is the Road Leading in 2025?
2024 is coming to an end, and every Web3 crypto enthusiast has their own annual keyword. For me, this year's keywords should be "highlight" and "lost." Solana made a strong recovery after the FTX collapse; Base saw a surge in user growth; the TON ecosystem matrix caught people's attention; the AI Agent track is considered the focus of 2025; unfortunately, the BTC ecosystem construction and coin prices have far from met the market expectations for 2024, while ETH remains sluggish. Nevertheless, this year's explosion in the MEME track and new assets has activated a massive carnival of on-chain liquidity, which has persisted throughout most of 2024.
2024------MEME New Assets are "Retail Investors' Self-Redemption"
Trends are undergoing profound changes: "Capital narratives are gradually losing effectiveness." With the evolution of Web3 sovereignty awareness, a series of new launch protocols such as Friend.tech, Pump.Fun, Four.meme, Moonshot, Flap, We.RICH, etc., are triggering a whole new Paradigm Shift. These protocols lower the barriers to entry, allowing everyone to become a project party, thus bringing more opportunities and choices.
This wave not only gave birth to a large number of "highlight" market cap projects (such as Wif, Bonk, Bome, Mew, etc.), but also made MEME assets the main theme throughout much of 2024, sweeping the market with exponential growth. MEME assets are gradually becoming the core carrier of decentralized value flow from emotional and cultural projections.
However, the increase in choices is accompanied by a loss of direction. Countless hundred-fold tokens and new assets with millions in market cap make it easier for us to "get lost" in information overload, not only missing potential wealth opportunities but also neglecting deep reflections on the core value assets of Web3. This "noise effect" makes the market prone to indulge in short-term speculation while ignoring the key to the ecosystem's long-term sustainable development: the strengthening of value creation and user consensus.
Behind the "Highlight" Market Cap of the MEME Track is the "Bonding Curve" as a Driving Force
The Bonding Curve is an algorithmic mechanism of AMM automated market makers. Most people encounter AMM through the traditional market-making mechanism of Uniswap (x⋅y=k), where the constant K ensures that the quantity of the two tokens and coin price always achieve value equivalence. Traditional AMMs require establishing a liquidity pool to obtain supply relationship parameters, while the Bonding Curve mechanism used by PumpFun, Friend.tech, Four.meme, Moonshot, Flap allows for low-cost asset issuance without the need to build a liquidity pool, without liquidity crises, without impermanent loss, and even without worrying about liquidity providers draining the pool and running away.
More importantly, the Bonding Curve provides greater flexibility and composability, allowing for diversified custom supply and value relationships through linear, logarithmic, exponential, inverse, mixed curves, etc. For example, Friend.tech (y = x^2 / 16000) basically determines the appreciation space for minted tokens.
In the pricing system of Pump.FUN, a pre-virtual pool named virtualSolReserves is set up. This virtual pool initially contains 30 SOL and 1,073,000,191 tokens, and its pricing formula follows the constant product rule x * y = k. After data fitting calculations, the initial k value is 32,190,005,730, and the initial price per token is approximately 0.000000028 SOL.
The pricing formula is as follows: y=1073000191−3219000573030+xy = 1073000191 - \frac{32190005730}{30 + x}y=1073000191−30+x32190005730
(The formula calculation content and image from Pump.FUN are from Binance Square's "Random Madman Chen Nezha" https://www.binance.com/zh-CN/square/post/15600492237666)
Essentially, Pump.FUN still adheres to the pricing principle of x * y = k, which is also why it can seamlessly add liquidity on Ratdium when the amount deposited for minting reaches 85 SOL, thus starting the next round of peak sprinting.
Coincidentally, Four.meme, backed by Binance, also achieves a similar process through the Bonding Curve. As long as the market cap reaches $44,444, the platform will add badge displays for it, and when the Bonding Curve reaches 100%, it will go live on PancakeSwap. However, under Binance's "resource moat," Four.meme provides more community assets with KOL matrices and promotional resources along with expected airdrops, further enhancing user stickiness.
The Dual Nature of Bonding Curve: Casino Tool or Value Engine?
Whether it's Pump.FUN or Four.meme, the process of meeting market cap standards to migrate to DEX for liquidity is utilizing the predictability of the Bonding Curve, allowing most market investors to clearly know the asset's pressure points, which indeed gives a bit of a "zero-sum game" feeling, in other words, "who runs faster."
However, I believe: the essence of finance lies in cycles. There are no assets that rise forever; the Bonding Curve is just part of the tool. It makes the market more transparent and computable while forcing project parties to think about the entire chain operation from asset issuance to ecological application to value realization.
Although many launch protocols have already created very high protocol revenues, with Pump.FUN's total revenue exceeding $300 million, the survival rate of tokens launched through it is only 1.3%. Perhaps we should think more about where these assets should ultimately go? What kind of financial value should they play?
2025 is the Best Time for Innovation in the Web3 Bull Market
I believe: every new asset issuance comes with huge wealth opportunities. The birth of BTC opened the era of digital assets, followed by a continuous stream of innovations such as altcoins, NFTs, and DeFi, creating countless wealth myths. However, the sustainable development of assets is the key to long-term success. Now, the sixth digital asset revolution------the Bonding Curve has arrived.
The future application of the Bonding Curve will no longer be limited to asset issuance and trading but will extend to new asset combinations, lending optimization, liquidity management, and capital efficiency enhancement. Just as the last DeFi bull market stimulated comprehensive prosperity in the industry, in 2025 we are expected to witness a new battlefield in DeFi led by the Bonding Curve.