Alliance DAO's Review of 2024 and Market Forecast for 2025: A Minimum of 150K and a Maximum of 420K US Bitcoin Reserves is Key

Original compilation: Wu Says Blockchain

In this episode of the Good Game Podcast, Imran and Qiao reviewed the development trends and project situations in the crypto market for 2024 through past podcast episodes, covering market cycles, emerging application areas, and the impact of global policy changes on cryptocurrencies. They revisited key events in the market during the first half of the year, such as Eigenlayer's development bottleneck, the market dynamics of NFTs and memecoins, and the groundbreaking use cases of AI in OnlyFans and social applications. Additionally, they analyzed the price trends of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana, as well as the potential impact of ETF applications on the market, discussing how market-driven decision-making patterns shape the future and making their own predictions for the cryptocurrency market in 2025.

Review of the Biggest Crypto Trends in 2024

WIF's Price Performance and Meme Coin Investment

Imran: When WIF was launched on January 24, 2024, its price was 3 to 4 cents. It has now increased tenfold, which is quite impressive. We talked about this coin on the show back then.

Qiao: We bought in at 3 cents and discussed it at 30 cents. At that time, the market was very focused on popular meme coins, but the current market is much more complex than in January, and attention is being diluted. Mainstream coins are rotating every two weeks, and the token supply is huge, making choices difficult.

Imran: I think when investing in meme coins, special attention needs to be paid to liquidity issues. The on-chain trading environment is too fast and complex, suitable for short-term entertainment investments, but if you want to invest wealth long-term, I recommend choosing coins that are listed on exchanges. Holding tokens with insufficient liquidity may completely prevent you from exiting the market.

The Intersection of AI and Cryptocurrency

Imran: In recent months, the development of AI has attracted a lot of capital. In the past, cryptocurrencies were the focus on Twitter, but now much of that attention has been taken away by AI. Especially some AI-related coins have seen significant increases. This is not just a meme; the market is gradually recognizing its practicality.

Qiao: Trump recently mentioned AI and cryptocurrency as the two most important technologies, which is a surprising shift. He seems to see them as complementary.

Imran: Yes, this statement somewhat validates the value of cryptocurrency. The crypto industry has often been overlooked by regulators and mainstream media, but the combination of AI and cryptocurrency is redefining the market's focus and clearing obstacles for industry development.

The Growth of Stablecoins and Market Validation

Imran: We discussed the potential of stablecoins in the first episode. Now, the market validation for stablecoins is very clear. The acquisition of Bridge by Stripe is a landmark event. Data shows that the percentage of crypto users using stablecoins has reached 25% to 30%.

Qiao: The total value locked (TVL) and trading volume of stablecoins can now be compared to PayPal and Visa. From on-chain data, the use of stablecoins has become very widespread globally. This is also one of the reasons we invested in this area last year.

Imran: Stablecoins have attracted a large number of entrepreneurs from Silicon Valley. In the past, this field was mainly dominated by crypto-native users and entrepreneurs from emerging markets, but now more traditional fintech companies are starting to pay attention to the functionality of stablecoins, incorporating them into their products to enhance liquidity and support more asset trading.

Tokenization of Real Assets

Qiao: The tokenization of real assets has not met expectations. Although companies like BlackRock have attempted to tokenize treasury bond funds, crypto natives have not shown sufficient interest. We originally expected these users to diversify their assets from highly volatile cryptocurrencies to more stable assets, but such a trend has not emerged this year.

Imran: Regulatory issues are the main obstacle, especially the restrictions of securities regulations. Another issue is that the product experience for end users is still not good enough; for example, the way to invest in real estate tokenization projects is still not clear enough.

Imran: Some startups are trying new models, such as Lofty, which tokenizes real estate income and allows retail investors to share rental income through tokens. These projects show market potential, but currently, larger speculative growth is still concentrated in the meme coin and AI token sectors.

Qiao: Perhaps we need to wait another two to three years; regulatory issues and changes in user behavior may gradually drive the development of this field.

The Current State of Ethereum and the Rise of Layer 2

Imran: Ethereum is still in a "transition period," and we need more time to see how it addresses scalability and profitability issues. As for Layer 2, Base is the most prominent project this year because Coinbase, as its supporter, has strong distribution capabilities.

Qiao: I agree that Base's rise is inseparable from its brand influence and distribution capabilities. Two years ago, many application developers chose to develop on Polygon, but now they have almost all turned to Ethereum's Layer 2, with Base being the most popular.

Imran: This is a noteworthy phenomenon. People like Jesse are actively promoting the development of Base, even traveling around the world to promote its ecosystem. I think this entrepreneurial spirit is a key factor in Base's success.

The Development of NFTs and SocialFi

Qiao: Pudgy Penguins is the best-performing NFT project this year, even surpassing Bored Apes, becoming the only large-scale NFT series that has seen a relative increase against ETH.

Imran: SocialFi is a topic we focused on in the first episode. Pump is expected to reach $1 billion in revenue in less than a year, showcasing the immense potential of SocialFi. This is also one of the main trends we focused on at the beginning of the year.

The Future of Application Chains and Competition with Monolithic Chains

Imran: The potential of application chains has not yet been fully realized. Currently, the threshold for creating application chains is still high, and the user base and transaction volume are insufficient to support large-scale development. However, we see some examples, such as Ronin, which has shifted to Polygon's CDK.

Qiao: The goal of application chains is more to serve global users on the chain rather than those who already have traditional financial service channels. For example, Moonshot is trying to provide more convenient financial services for on-chain users through its platform.

Predictions About ETFs

Imran: We predicted on the show that ETFs would be approved, and that has indeed become a reality. This marks an important recognition of the position of cryptocurrencies in mainstream finance.

Qiao: This reflects that traditional giants like BlackRock and Fidelity are beginning to fully embrace cryptocurrencies. If someone had told me ten years ago that these companies would promote Bitcoin on their official websites, I would have thought it impossible, but now it has become a reality.

February Summary: Five Trends Driving the Bull Market

ETFs and Market Attention

Imran: We talked about ETFs and also mentioned Gary Gensler being hacked. Although this was a side note, it highlighted the current regulatory environment issues.

Qiao: We also mentioned that Phantom briefly surpassed Coinbase in the App Store rankings. This is an interesting phenomenon, indicating that even a niche wallet application can attract user attention in a short time.

Imran: Although this phenomenon is temporary, it reflects the potential of decentralized wallets. I think Phantom needs to further enhance user stickiness to benefit from these short-term fluctuations.

The Rise of Hyperliquid

Imran: Hyperliquid is a project we mentioned on March 5. At that time, they launched their application chain based on the Tendermint consensus. In eight months, their trading volume approached $1 billion, and their TVL reached $300-400 million. This growth rate is astonishing.

Imran: I also spoke with the Hyperliquid team, and they realized that the Tendermint consensus mechanism is a bottleneck and are redesigning a faster consensus mechanism. Their goal is to provide users with the fastest and best trading experience.

Qiao: Yes, they further optimized their ecosystem by launching a fully customized Layer 1 chain. This customized approach shows that they are very attentive to the needs of niche markets.

Imran: I think there may be more and more such customized chains in the future. Layer 2s and public chains like Arbitrum, Polygon, and Solana may be diverted by smaller application chains under this trend.

Qiao: But this also indicates that the market's demand for high-performance chains is continuously growing, and Hyperliquid may become a model in this field.

Imran: I regret not participating in Hyperliquid's early farming. At the time of their launch, I wasn't a leveraged trader and didn't pay attention to derivatives, so I missed many opportunities. But now seeing their growth, I want to participate in their future products even more.

User Behavior and Ecological Development of Farcaster

Imran: We talked about Farcaster's daily active users (DAU), which dropped from a peak of 100,000 to now 40,000. This is a significant decline, possibly related to insufficient platform innovation.

Qiao: Yes, they recently launched the Snapchain framework, which is a tool that allows users to easily develop applications based on Farcaster, like a small decentralized application store. I think they are trying to attract developers and users through this framework.

Imran: I noticed that Farcaster's UI has also had some updates. Now you can click on the bottom right to enter Explorer to view applications and launch them directly. This innovation makes me feel that they are indeed trying to expand the functionality of the social graph.

Qiao: In the long run, I think Farcaster's opportunity lies in developing new features that Twitter cannot achieve. For example, innovative applications that combine financialization and social graphs may be a direction.

Imran: Yes, this approach can not only help applications spread quickly but also attract more users. This is the biggest highlight we talked about regarding Farcaster.

The Explosion of Meme Coins and the Potential of SocialFi

Imran: We discussed the explosion of meme coins on March 14, particularly mentioning TRUMP and HarryPotterObamaSonic10Inu. At that time, I tried to buy in, but the price fluctuations were too large, and cross-chain trading made me hesitate.

Qiao: HarryPotterObamaSonic10Inu saw a price surge at one point, but overall, it remains a high-risk project. The lifecycle of meme coins is often very short, relying more on the community's short-term enthusiasm.

Imran: I remember HarryPotterObamaSonic10Inu once approached zero, but later saw a surge again due to a new listing announcement. Personally, I think this type of coin can only serve as a speculative tool.

The Intersection of Culture and Cryptocurrency

Imran: We noticed that crypto culture is starting to spread through platforms like TikTok. For example, crypto-related merchandise has appeared on TikTok, one example being the "Chill Guy" sweater.

Qiao: I almost bought a "Chill Guy" sweater, but ultimately passed because I felt such merchandise might quickly go out of style. I would rather invest my money in cryptocurrencies.

Imran: I agree that while these products reflect the spread of crypto culture, their value is more symbolic. This indicates that crypto culture is trying to enter a broader consumer domain.

Performance of Bitcoin Puppets

Imran: Bitcoin Puppets is a Bitcoin ecosystem project we discussed. When we bought in, the price was around 50K, and it has now risen to 100K. This performance has indeed exceeded expectations.

Qiao: Nodes and Puppets are the two best-performing projects. They have attracted a lot of attention and funding, especially in innovative projects within the Bitcoin ecosystem.

Cryptocurrency Leading Cultural Trends

Imran: We have observed that crypto culture is gradually entering mainstream social platforms like TikTok. This phenomenon indicates that the influence of the crypto industry is expanding.

Qiao: I believe this cultural spread will attract more users into the crypto ecosystem, especially the younger generation. This provides new momentum for the continuation of the bull market.

March Summary: Meme Coins, BlackRock, and L3

The Release of Blast and Solana's Retail Positioning

Imran: On March 14, 2024, we discussed the release of Blast. We also mentioned that Solana is positioned as the "Degen Chain" for retail users. This is an accurate description.

Imran: The Layer 2 projects of Solana, such as FireDancer and CMS, as well as institutions like Split Capital, were also part of our discussion regarding market prospects. These indicate that Solana is trying to expand its user base, especially attracting retail investors.

ETFs, Meme Coins, and the Impact of BlackRock

Imran: We talked about the approval of ETFs and also reviewed the market situation from eight months ago, including the explosion of meme coins, the impact of BlackRock on the market, and the development trends of Layer 3.

Qiao: I remember we mentioned the expectations for ETF approvals. At that time, both Daniel and Zaheer were bullish on ETF approvals, especially for ETH ETFs.

Imran: Yes, this bullish sentiment drove the market. The prosperity of meme coins at that time also exacerbated this trend, but the volatility of meme coins made it difficult for many investors to hold long-term.

The Role of Layer 3 and Market Fragmentation

Imran: We discussed the role of Layer 1 and the issue of market fragmentation, particularly in the debate between Ethereum and Solana geeks regarding Degen Tokens on Farcaster. It was the first time I heard the term Layer 3, and I found this concept hard to accept.

Qiao: Yes, the development of Layer 3 is mainly focused on more refined application scenarios, but so far, there haven't been particularly convincing success stories.

Challenges in the Development of Bitcoin Layer 2

Imran: We mentioned the development of Bitcoin Layer 2, but it currently faces issues of slow speed and poor user experience (UI/UX), especially with the use of PRC 20 tokens, which hinders many users from entering.

Qiao: Yes, I hope to see some significant breakthroughs in Bitcoin Layer 2 in the second half of the year. Currently, projects with ample funding are in operation, but results may not come until next year.

Imran: Meanwhile, Base and Solana are competing for AI-related meta. Base has a slight advantage, especially with the promotion of the Virtual framework, providing a clean and user-friendly proxy launch method.

Qiao: Although Solana's Eliza framework has substantial community support, it lacks the clean product experience of Virtual. I think Base is a step ahead in the proxy framework.

AI Applications and Competition

Imran: The competition in the AI field is very fierce. We talked about how Goat recently released a new statement, regaining some attention. Additionally, ai16z has become the number one repository on GitHub, attracting a large number of developers.

Qiao: Yes, Zerebro plans to launch ZerePy, competing with Eliza. Goat's new project Backdoors 2.0 allows AI agents to converse with humans and generate more refined models based on context.

Bitcoin Halving and Bull Market Discussions

Imran: We discussed the Bitcoin halving event and the market downturn. Although the market is in a consolidation phase, from my perspective, this feels more like a normal correction.

Qiao: Even if Bitcoin's price remains at 65K from two months ago, there are many complaints on Twitter. This may be due to geopolitical issues, such as the tensions between Iran and Israel, leading to significant market sell-offs.

Telegram's TON Project

Imran: We mentioned the TON project. Since the founder's arrest, this project has basically fallen into trouble. Despite its potential for distribution, its developer experience is too poor, with limited supported languages, high transaction fees, and long block times.

Qiao: Yes, we partially invested in the TON ecosystem, but ultimately most projects pivoted. I believe that technological differentiation is no longer key; distribution is the core of success for Layer 1 and Layer 2.

Imran: This is the reason for Base's success. It relies on Coinbase's distribution channels to capture the market, rather than its technological uniqueness. Base's technology is fundamentally similar to other OP Stack Layer 2s, but its distribution capability sets it apart.

The Evolution of the Crypto Space

Imran: We see Base and Solana continuing to compete for market share in AI and memes. Although Bitcoin Layer 2 has potential, user experience still needs significant improvement.

Qiao: Our discussion indicates that distribution capability is becoming the core competitive advantage in the crypto space, especially in the competition between Layer 1 and Layer 2. This trend may shape the market landscape in the coming years.

April Summary: Eigenlayer, SocialFi Summer, and Capital Outflows

The Current State and Challenges of Eigenlayer

Imran: We discussed Eigenlayer, and currently, no teams are willing to use it to secure economic safety. For startups, economic security is not a priority; they are more focused on quickly launching products and acquiring users.

Qiao: I completely agree. Ultimately, startups care about product implementation and user growth, not whether the underlying infrastructure is optimal.

Market Cycles and Bull Market Phases

Imran: In May, we believed the market was about 50% through its cycle. Now, it is probably around 80%-90%, with about 3 to 6 months left in the cycle.

Qiao: Yes, but in the final 10%-20% of the time, price fluctuations may be more severe. This phase requires extra caution.

Imran: My current strategy is to keep my portfolio steady. I have held my assets for three months, especially after capturing the AI meta, I chose not to trade frequently. Otherwise, I might get cut during market fluctuations.

High FDV Projects and New Releases

Imran: We talked about high FDV (Fully Diluted Valuation) projects like Hyperliquid and Movement. Hyperliquid's FDV reached $12 billion to $13 billion, while Movement's FDV once reached $10 billion.

Qiao: Hyperliquid's community shows strong user attraction, similar to the early state of Ethereum OG investors. This "organic user effect" allows Hyperliquid to occupy a special position in the Layer 1 market.

Imran: Movement, on the other hand, seems to attract users through a "farm" strategy, with many investors heavily promoting it on Twitter, but lacking the kind of natural growth driven by traders that Hyperliquid has.

Qiao: I think Hyperliquid's positioning is clearer; it quickly adapts to the market by providing quality products for Degens (high-risk traders). Movement and Aptos rely more on BD (business development) collaborations, such as AI strategies in partnership with OpenAI's product officer.

The Summer of SocialFi and Consumer Behavior

Imran: The SocialFi space is beginning to show signs of activity, but it is still early. The explosion of celebrity tokens may require 1-2 market cycles, as consumer behavior is not yet fully prepared.

Qiao: Yes, celebrity tokens may go through a journey similar to meme coins. At the end of last year, meme coins were widely mocked, but now they have been accepted by the mainstream. Consumer behavior and market consensus need time to change.

Imran: We are currently incubating a startup called Cloud, aimed at providing tools for celebrities to launch their own tokens. This model may see more adoption in the next cycle.

Observations on the Bitcoin Market

Imran: We also discussed the consolidation of the Bitcoin market. Although the price remains at 65K, the market is undergoing a consolidation phase. I believe this is more of a correction phase rather than the end of a bull market.

Qiao: Yes, the negative sentiment in the market may be more influenced by geopolitical issues, such as the situation between Iran and Israel, leading to short-term market sell-offs.

The Dilemma of the TON Project

Imran: The TON project has been in trouble since the founder's arrest. Its developer experience is poor, supporting only a limited number of programming languages, while transaction fees are high and settlement times are long, all of which hinder its development.

Qiao: Distribution capability remains the potential of TON, but it needs to improve developer experience and optimize technical implementation to regain market attention.

Timing and Opportunities in the Market

Imran: Many current market phenomena, such as SocialFi and celebrity tokens, are a matter of timing. Although the market is not yet fully prepared, we can see consumer behavior gradually changing.

Qiao: We need to continue monitoring market rhythms, especially regarding celebrity tokens and high FDV projects. These may be key growth points in the next market cycle.

Mid-Year Review and Predictions for the Second Half of the Year

Market Review and Progress of the Bull Market

Imran: By June, we are in the mid-term of the market. Although there are many positive signals, such as Andrew King's analysis of ETFs and some positive macro signals, the market has not seen a significant rise. There is also a divergence regarding the possibility of interest rate cuts, with some believing the short-term outlook is bearish.

Qiao: In the short term, interest rate cuts may be bullish, but the mid-term effects may differ. We previously referred to certain speculations as "armchair economists," and it has proven that they did not accurately predict the market's rhythm and reactions.

AI Applications and the OnlyFans Model

Imran: In June, we explored the trend of creators using AI chatbots on OnlyFans. These bots can handle a large volume of message interactions on behalf of real people, becoming a major source of income for creators.

Qiao: Yes, the main source of income for OnlyFans is not subscriptions but one-on-one message interactions. Each message may charge 10 cents or more, and users will also pay to unlock photos or content. AI is playing an increasingly important role, allowing creators to focus on other aspects of their work.

Imran: We discussed the global trend of loneliness and its relationship with the demand for AI companions. AI is becoming a tool for mental health and social interaction, especially among younger demographics.

Market Dynamics of NFTs and Meme Coins

Imran: CBB decided to stop providing liquidity to the market, which has had a certain impact on the NFT market. Meanwhile, meme coins still occupy a significant amount of market attention.

Qiao: Whether NFTs will return to the mainstream market remains uncertain. However, based on past trends, meme coins have already proven their ability to become a major focus during certain cycles.

Limitations of Eigenlayer

Imran: Eigenlayer has not sparked widespread interest among startup teams, mainly because economic security is not their primary concern. Developers are more focused on product launches and user growth.

Qiao: This is also why we have repeatedly emphasized that startups should focus on users and products rather than optimizing underlying infrastructure.

Changes in Polymarket and Prediction Markets

Imran: We discussed the changes in trading volume on Polymarket, especially its appeal in the sports market. Although Polymarket's overall trading volume has decreased, the potential of prediction markets remains enormous.

Qiao: The model of prediction markets is expanding, such as using market-driven methods to detect misinformation on the internet. This approach can incentivize users to submit evidence, expose inaccuracies, and earn rewards.

Imran: This market-based Community Notes method may be more effective than existing fact-checking mechanisms because it can attract broader user participation.

ICLs (Initial Community Offerings) vs. Venture Capital

Imran: ICLs are rising as a mainstream way for community members to participate in startup financing. We believe that ICLs are not competing with meme coins but with traditional venture capital.

Qiao: The venture capital model may be more focused, but ICLs offer a fairer and more decentralized option. Platforms like Pump have become the main battleground for project launches.

The Combination of AI and Cryptocurrency

Imran: We talked about how AI can combine with cryptocurrency to create new consumer behaviors and application scenarios. Startups like Swife are exploring the combination of AI and social interaction to provide users with more personalized experiences.

Qiao: This trend is driving the entire industry forward, especially with the push from the younger generation of developers.

The Impact of Gen-Z on the Crypto Industry

Imran: We have observed that many of the most successful crypto applications are developed by Gen-Z. This group is filled with optimism and a spirit of adventure, and compared to previous developers, they are more willing to try new directions.

Qiao: The success of Ethereum is a typical example. At that time, 18-year-old Vitalik launched Ethereum with a simple idea, while many seasoned computer scientists were skeptical of it.

Predictions for the Second Half of 2024

Imran: Our prediction for the second half of 2024 is that the market will continue to be dominated by AI and community-driven models. The return of ICLs, NFTs, and the rise of decentralized science may become new highlights.

Qiao: 2024 will be a year where distribution capability and community power determine the market landscape. We will closely monitor these trends and continue to drive innovation in the industry.

2025 Trend Predictions

Bitcoin Price Predictions

Imran: I believe Bitcoin will reach 250K in 2025, which is the consensus of the market. But I'm not sure if this will be the peak, because when everyone predicts 250K, it may go even higher. I predict it could reach 350K.

Qiao: I give a broader range, with a minimum of 150K and a maximum of 420K. It mainly depends on two factors: first, the passage of strategic Bitcoin reserves; second, the macro environment of the market.

Imran: If Trump takes office in early 2025 and incorporates Bitcoin into strategic reserves, that would be an extremely bullish signal. He might issue an executive order to retain confiscated Bitcoin and even push the government to purchase new Bitcoin.

Qiao: Yes, this possibility exists. He may issue relevant orders on the very first day, January 20, 2025.

Trends in Bitcoin Strategic Reserves

Imran: I have noticed that more and more small organizations, such as community associations and even some apartment buildings, are starting to use Bitcoin as a strategic reserve. For example, a property management team purchased Bitcoin for $5,000 as an operational reserve. This trend may expand from the local level to the national level.

Qiao: Yes, this phenomenon indicates that Bitcoin adoption is extending from governments to smaller community levels. Ultimately, this could become an important driving force for the continuous rise in Bitcoin prices.

Ethereum vs. Solana

Imran: Ethereum's price has been driven by ETFs and has performed strongly recently. In contrast, Solana's price growth is limited, mainly due to the legacy of FTX and the supply pressure from unlocked funds.

Qiao: The largest unlock for Solana will occur in March 2025. I believe that after the unlock pressure ends, Solana's performance may catch up with Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Imran: Solana recently submitted an ETF application, and if approved, this could change the game. Predictions on Polymarket show a 74% chance of a Solana ETF being released before July 31, 2025.

AI Metaverse and AI Agents

Imran: The AI metaverse is still in its first phase, primarily dominated by extractors, with actual builders only accounting for 30%. In the next month or two, it may enter the second phase, where builders will begin to dominate.

Qiao: AI, as one of the biggest trends, has already shown tremendous potential. We invested in Goat tokens on the first day, proving our judgment. In the future, we may see more agent platforms and markets gradually mature.

New Market Models

Qiao: Next year, we may see some entirely new market models, such as market-driven decision-making mechanisms. For example, if a sports team is choosing a coach, the prediction market can help the team select the best option by voting on the potential outcomes of different candidates.

Imran: We are incubating a similar project that uses prediction markets to drive decision-making for future events. This approach can be applied in various fields, such as sports, business, and even public policy.