QCP: It is expected that the BTC price will remain within the current range in the short term, with a rebound starting in February

ChainCatcher news, QCP released its daily market observation stating that, as expected, we have seen typical quarter-end volatility sell-offs, with volatility dropping by 2-3 volatility points since last Friday's record options expiration.

Although BTC has been consolidating near the bottom of the 1-month range and this month's returns have been flat, BTC and ETH have performed reasonably well in the fourth quarter: BTC is up 48%, while ETH is up 30%. However, it may still be too early to summarize this quarter. Just yesterday, Saylor released his BTC purchase tracker again, which may indicate another round of purchases is imminent, further supporting prices.

Despite the possibility of another round of purchases, we do not have high expectations for the market during the New Year period, especially in terms of funding health. The average return in January (+3.3%) is relatively similar to December (+4.8%), and we expect spot prices to remain in this range in the short term until a recovery begins in February.

Options flow also reflects similar sentiment, with front-end volatility gradually declining, and risk reversals mainly showing strong demand for call options in March, partly due to a large purchase of March options last Friday.