Analyst: Bitcoin faces three major influencing factors in 2025: Trump's government crypto policy, Federal Reserve monetary policy, and U.S. government debt
ChainCatcher news, according to Barron's, as Bitcoin retraced to $94,000 on Christmas Eve, Yuya Hasegawa, an analyst at the Japanese cryptocurrency exchange bitbank, elaborated on three key factors influencing the crypto market in 2025.
First, the direction of cryptocurrency policy under the Trump administration will dominate market sentiment. The proposed strategic Bitcoin reserve plan and the appointment of pro-cryptocurrency nominees are expected to directly impact the price trends of mainstream cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, XRP, and Dogecoin.
Second, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy will continue to affect the crypto market. Hasegawa pointed out that loose monetary policy has historically been favorable for Bitcoin prices, while the opposite would have a negative impact. Although the Federal Reserve has cut rates by 100 basis points this year, Trump's plan to impose tariffs of 10%-20% on all imported goods, with tariffs on Chinese goods potentially reaching 60%, could exacerbate inflationary pressures, forcing the Federal Reserve to maintain higher interest rates.
Third, the U.S. government debt issue may become a new focus for the market. Hasegawa emphasized that a high-interest-rate environment will increase the burden of government debt. If concerns about debt sustainability arise and the U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve plan is successfully implemented, Bitcoin's safe-haven properties as digital gold will gain more attention, potentially driving its valuation higher.