CNBC Survey: 93% of respondents believe the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points this month

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, CNBC's December Federal Reserve survey respondents are confident that the Fed will cut rates this week, but they are less certain about whether it should. 93% believe the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points. However, only 63% think this is what the Fed should do. Respondents expect two more rate cuts in 2025, each by 25 basis points, down from three in the last survey. By this time next year, the fund rate is expected to drop to 3.8%, and by the end of 2026, it will fall to 3.4%, slightly above the average neutral rate. A huge unknown is the fiscal policy of the new government.

The survey shows that the prospects of tariffs and potential deportations under President Trump have dampened some people's upward economic forecasts. Economist Robert Fry stated, "I have never been so uncertain about the inflation outlook." Trump offers us a combination of raising inflation (tariffs, tax cuts) and lowering inflation (deregulation, spending cuts). Who knows what we will ultimately get?