Review of the market trends of 11 new cryptocurrencies: Should one cash out during the bull market or hold long-term?

Author: Nan Zhi, Odaily Planet Daily

Recently launched MOVE and ME have showcased the enthusiasm of the crowd and the ferocity of new coins in a bull market. Looking back, for example, the new coin OL on OKX left a deep impression, as it surged after opening, briefly retraced, and then continued its "bulldozer" style rise.

So, does the strategy for new coins change in the context of a bull market, meaning there’s no need to sell early after opening like before? Odaily will review several new coins launched on recent exchanges to attempt to answer this question.

Basic Situation Explanation

This article selects new coins launched on Binance, OKX, Bybit, and those launched across the network within the last two months.

• Network-wide launches include MOVE and ME;

• Binance includes SCR and USUAL (pre-market);

• OKX includes MAJOR, MORPHO, MEMEFI, OL, and X (actually many launched but not including Binance, etc.);

• Bybit selected MOZ (Lumoz) and XION.

In terms of time, the closing prices for the above tokens were recorded at 5 minutes, 1 hour, 24 hours, 7 days, and the current price (as of December 16, 3 PM Beijing time).

Then, the price changes of each token were compared, such as the percentage change of the 1-hour closing price relative to the 5-minute closing price, to determine if it was "the peak at opening."

Is the Peak at Opening Still Present?

The price change data for each token is shown in the figure below. The average decline of the 1-hour closing price relative to the 5-minute closing price is 14%, while the average decline for the 24-hour closing price is 7%.

It can be seen that in the short term, the 5-minute opening remains a peak. If tokens can be obtained within this time frame, selling is still recommended.

There are eight tokens that have been online for 7 days, and these tokens have seen a 7-day closing price decline of 8.7% relative to the 5-minute closing price, indicating that the mid-term situation remains unchanged, with the opening still being a peak.

Will the situation change if we extend the time frame?

The average increase of the current price relative to the 5-minute closing price for 11 tokens has reached 25%, but excluding OL, it turns into an average decline of 21%, with the decline further expanding.

Opening is Still the Peak

In summary, for most tokens, the opening still tends to be the highest point. The bull market may bring higher opening prices rather than long-term increases. Additionally, one or two months is insufficient to dissipate the overly enthusiastic emotions at opening that lead to inflated prices. According to statistical patterns, it is still recommended to sell if tokens can be obtained within 5 minutes.

Binance New Coin VANA Price Estimate

Based on the past 21 periods of Binance Launchpool data, we estimate the price of VANA to be 15.9 USDT, corresponding to an FDV of 1.911 billion USD, with an initial circulating market value of 479 million USD.

The calculation is as follows: the average annualized return over the past 21 periods is 96%, assuming this period is also 96%; then based on the average amount of BNB invested in the past 21 periods and the BNB price of 726 USDT, to achieve the same annualized return, the price of VANA needs to reach:

16973725 × 726 ÷ 4080000 × 2 ÷ 365 × 96% = 15.93