Cryptocurrency Market Performance

Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $3.64 trillion, with BTC accounting for 55.15%, which is $2.01 trillion. The market cap of stablecoins is $202.1 billion, with a 7-day increase of 2.66%, of which USDT accounts for 69.46%.

This week, BTC's price showed a fluctuating upward trend, with the current price at $102,182; ETH is in a range-bound fluctuation, with the current price at $3,934.

Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most have declined while a few have risen, including: BGB with a 7-day increase of 42.07%, BabyDoge with a 7-day increase of 93.46%, and SUSHI with a 7-day increase of 34.97%.

This week, the net inflow for Bitcoin spot ETFs in the U.S. was $2.174 billion; the net inflow for Ethereum spot ETFs in the U.S. was $846.1 million.

On December 14, the "Fear & Greed Index" was at 83 (lower than last week), with this week's sentiment: 5 days of greed and 2 days of extreme greed.

According to CME's "Fed Watch," the probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain the current interest rate until December is 3.3%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 96.7%.

Market Prediction: Continuous issuance of stablecoins, net inflows in ETFs, coupled with expectations of a Fed rate cut, BTC may show a fluctuating upward trend, with a focus on the AI sector.

Understanding Now

Weekly Major Events Review

1. On December 9, Trump stated: There are currently no plans to ask Powell to resign as Chairman of the Federal Reserve;

2. On December 9, according to Scam Sniffer monitoring, funds stolen from DEXX are currently being transferred to Tornado Cash, with approximately 1,000 ETH deposited so far;

3. Morgan Stanley: It is expected that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points in December and January;

4. On December 11, Solana announced the launch of the first Solana AI Hackathon, aimed at building AI agents and tools on Solana, supported by SEND AI and leading teams in the Solana ecosystem. Prizes range from $5,000 to $30,000, aimed at encouraging serious Crypto x AI projects that can attract venture capital or launch their own tokens. Submissions will open on December 15 through a form where project teams can provide all project details, including GitHub repositories, a 2-minute demo/pitch video, a 10-page pitch document, etc.;

5. On December 11, according to voting results, major shareholders of Microsoft opposed the company's Bitcoin investment proposal on Tuesday.

Earlier, the Microsoft board urged shareholders to reject a proposal from the National Center for Public Policy Research, which suggested that the company invest 1% of its total assets in Bitcoin to hedge against inflation.

At the annual meeting, MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor gave a three-minute speech trying to persuade Microsoft shareholders to support the proposal. Data shows that Microsoft's largest shareholders are institutional investors, including Vanguard and BlackRock;

6. On December 11, Ripple Labs CEO Brad Garlinghouse posted on social media stating, "Ripple's stablecoin RLUSD has received final approval from the New York Department of Financial Services (NYDFS). You will hear the news from Ripple first when RLUSD goes live on exchanges";

7. On December 13, according to TheBlock, CNBC's Jim Cramer asked Trump in a television interview, "Are you still embracing cryptocurrencies and considering establishing a Bitcoin strategic reserve in the crypto space?" Trump replied, "I think so, we want to do great things with cryptocurrencies because we don't want other major countries to take the lead; other countries are embracing it, and we want to be the leaders."

Macroeconomics

1. On December 12, according to a public document, the SEC is seeking public opinions on the Bitwise Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF listed on the NYSE. The Bitwise Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF is a proposed spot cryptocurrency index fund composed of BTC and ETH;

2. On December 12, according to Cointelegraph, Coinbase is preparing to delist Tether's USDT stablecoin in Europe. Coinbase stated that it will assess the re-enabling of stablecoin services later to achieve MiCA compliance. As the deadline for European cryptocurrency regulations approaches, cryptocurrency trading platforms in Europe are preparing to delist locally non-compliant stablecoins;

3. On December 13, Musk revealed that the SEC had sent him a settlement request, asking him to accept fines and other conditions within 48 hours, or face multiple charges related to "Twitter stock purchases, sales, and disclosures." The SEC is investigating whether Musk committed securities fraud before acquiring Twitter (now X) in 2022, including whether his sale of Tesla stock to acquire Twitter shares violated disclosure obligations;

4. On December 13, according to CME's "Fed Watch," the probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain the current interest rate until December is 3.3%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 96.7%.

ETF

According to statistics, from December 9 to December 13, the net inflow of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs was $2.174 billion; as of December 13, GBTC (Grayscale) had a total outflow of $20.999 billion, currently holding $21.484 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $54.051 billion. The total market capitalization of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs is $116.868 billion.

The net inflow of U.S. Ethereum spot ETFs was $846.1 million.

Envisioning the Future

Event Preview

1. CoinDesk will hold Consensus Hong Kong from February 18 to 20, 2025, in Hong Kong.

Project Progress

1. Avalanche9000 will launch its mainnet on December 16;

2. The Bitcoin scaling solution Stacks announced that it will deploy sBTC in two phases, with the first phase mainnet launching on December 16, 2024, opening Bitcoin deposit functions;

3. The Starknet-based zkEVM network Kakarot will abandon the deployment of Starknet, and Kakarot on the Starknet Sepolia testnet will close on December 16, 2024;

4. Swan Chain will launch the SWAN token TGE on December 16, with a total supply of 1 billion SWAN tokens, of which 20% will be allocated for early users and future community reward airdrops, 20% will be allocated to investors, 20% will be allocated to the DAO treasury, 25% will be allocated to the ecosystem fund, and 15% will be allocated to key developers and team members;

5. Ethereum L2 Taiko Season 2 will run from September 17 to December 16, 2024, offering a reward of 6 million TAIKO tokens, with 5 million for participants and 1 million for DApps;

6. The modular blockchain Sophon will launch its mainnet on December 18. In October this year, Binance Labs announced an investment in Sophon, with the specific amount undisclosed.

Important Events

1. Hong Kong will submit the "Stablecoin Regulation Draft" for first reading to the Legislative Council on December 18. According to the proposed licensing system, anyone conducting any of the following activities must obtain a license from the Financial Management Commissioner: issuing fiat stablecoins in Hong Kong during business operations; issuing fiat stablecoins claiming to be pegged to the Hong Kong dollar during business operations; or actively promoting the issuance of their fiat stablecoins to the public in Hong Kong. To effectively implement the system, the draft also proposes to grant the Financial Management Commissioner necessary regulatory, investigative, and enforcement powers.

Token Unlocking

1. Fusionist (ACE) will unlock 3.33 million tokens on December 18, valued at approximately $9.62 million, accounting for 2.26% of the circulating supply;

2. Polyhedra Network (ZKJ) will unlock 15.5 million tokens on December 19, valued at approximately $31.03 million, accounting for 1.55% of the circulating supply;

3. Pixels (PIXEL) will unlock 53.55 million tokens on December 19, valued at approximately $12.81 million, accounting for 1.07% of the circulating supply;

4. Bittensor (TAO) will unlock 216,000 tokens on December 21, valued at approximately $12.5 million, accounting for 1.03% of the circulating supply.