Why did "old junk" public chains like LTC and ADA turn red in this round of bull market?

Author: Grapefruit, ChainCatcher

Editor: Nianqing, ChainCatcher

Since XRP achieved a more than fivefold increase in value within a month, the market's focus has once again shifted to established public chain projects, which have become new hotspots for market speculation. Notably, many established public chain assets have quietly risen in price, realizing varying degrees of appreciation. According to data from CoinGecko, in the past month, the price of public chain assets such as ADA, LTC, FTM, and ATOM has more than doubled.

Currently, there are still many unfulfilled positive expectations for established public chain projects. For example, the upcoming change in leadership at the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has led to widespread market anticipation that the new chair will adopt a more favorable stance towards the crypto industry. Additionally, the applications for spot ETFs are also potential catalysts for the development of this sector, likely bringing new growth opportunities for established public chains.

Among them, the current SEC chair Gary Gensler, who has taken an unfriendly stance towards crypto policy, has publicly stated he will step down on January 20, 2025. His strict regulatory policies during his tenure have posed challenges for many crypto projects. Many expect that the new SEC leadership may adopt a more lenient and friendly attitude towards the crypto industry. This means that crypto projects previously suppressed by regulation, such as SOL, ATOM, BNB, NEAR, ADA, and MATIC, may see new opportunities with changes in regulatory policies.

Regarding ETFs, Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas revealed that there will be 14 altcoin-related ETFs awaiting approval from the U.S. SEC within the next 12 months, including applications for crypto asset ETFs such as SOL, Ripple (XRP), Hedera (HBAR), and Litecoin (LTC). Currently, the crypto investment firm Canary Capital has submitted applications for spot ETFs for XRP, LTC, HBAR, and other cryptocurrencies to the SEC. The president of ETF Store revealed that at least one issuer is attempting to launch an ETF for ADA (Cardano) or AVAX (Avalanche).

In addition to external positive factors such as policy adjustments and ETF applications, many established public chains are also undergoing positive changes, showcasing new vitality and energy. Some public chains are actively integrating into the Bitcoin ecosystem, seeking new development opportunities; others have successfully attracted the attention of traditional financial institutions by leveraging the narrative of RWA; and some are quietly working on the research and innovation of AI products. However, some public chains have encountered difficulties due to internal disputes within their teams, hindering their development pace. Of course, some public chains have stagnated due to being mired in team disputes.

Some community users believe that after surviving multiple rounds of bull and bear markets, the established public chain projects that remain are more resilient. As the new public chain craze gradually subsides, with multiple positive factors at play, established public chains are expected to usher in their own carnival moment.

1. SEC Chair Change Benefiting Project Ripple (XRP): Market Cap Surges into Top Three, Launching Stablecoin RLUSD

Ripple (XRP) has seen its price increase more than fivefold in the past month, rising from $0.5 on November 10 to a high of $2.9 on December 3, with its market cap briefly surpassing $136.2 billion, reclaiming its position as the third-largest cryptocurrency by market cap, surpassing USDT. The massive short-term increase has made XRP a focal point of attention in the crypto market.

From a market analysis perspective, several important factors are driving the price increase of XRP. Firstly, the lawsuit with the SEC is approaching its final resolution. Secondly, the application for a spot XRP ETF undoubtedly provides another important support for the price increase of XRP. Additionally, XRP's new layout in the crypto payment sector, the launch of the stablecoin RLUSD, and new changes in its ecosystem are also opening up new space for its future development.

Since its launch in 2012, XRP has focused on cross-border payment scenarios, with its efficiency and low cost being favored by traditional financial institutions. However, since Ripple was sued by the SEC at the end of 2020 for allegedly raising funds through unregistered securities, XRP has faced four years of regulatory pressure. This lawsuit not only led to a significant drop in XRP's price but also forced multiple exchanges to suspend XRP trading.

However, with the ruling of a U.S. District Court judge in August this year and Ripple's agreement with the SEC to defer a $125 million fine, the regulatory pressure on XRP has eased somewhat. Nevertheless, in October, the SEC continued to assert that the district court's handling of the Ripple case was problematic, claiming that Ripple's distribution of XRP tokens violated federal securities laws, and filed a collective appeal notice against its founders Brad Garlinghouse and Chris Larsen, with a trial expected to begin on January 21, 2025.

With the changes in the U.S. political landscape in November and the restructuring of the SEC, Ripple may see new opportunities in regulatory policies. The unfriendly SEC chair Gary Gensler is set to step down on January 20, 2025, and the new SEC leadership may adopt a more lenient and friendly attitude towards the crypto industry, bringing new hope for XRP and other projects that have faced regulatory pressure, which is very favorable for the upcoming trial of XRP on January 21, 2025.

At the same time, Ripple is actively participating in political activities, attempting to reverse its litigation predicament with the SEC through policy reform and striving for a more favorable legal and regulatory environment for XRP. In November, Ripple donated $25 million to the Fairshake political action committee, which supports the cryptocurrency industry, and is working to secure a seat on the cryptocurrency advisory committee planned by Trump to gain more support for XRP at the policy level.

Moreover, the XRP spot ETF will undoubtedly become a focal point in the crypto market, continuously attracting widespread attention. Currently, several well-known financial institutions, including WisdomTree, 21Shares, and Bitwise, have submitted applications for an XRP ETF to the SEC.

In addition to external positive factors, Ripple (XRP) itself is also undergoing changes in its fundamentals and narrative.

In terms of products, Ripple's stablecoin RLUSD has been approved by the New York Department of Financial Services and will be launched soon. RLUSD is a dollar stablecoin designed specifically for enterprise use cases (such as payments), aimed at enhancing Ripple's cross-border payment solutions.

Despite Ripple's market cap consistently ranking in the top ten and recently attracting significant attention, its ecosystem has remained relatively quiet, lacking a strong follow-up effect. However, recently, Ripple has begun to focus on ecosystem development. The most critical aspect is that Ripple is expanding the programmability of the XRP ledger and plans to launch an XRPL EVM sidechain. Currently, its own development language is not very developer-friendly, and once the sidechain is launched, it is expected to attract many developers from the EVM ecosystem.

Additionally, Ripple's popularity has attracted the attention of venture capitalists. Robert Leshner, founder of Compound and partner at Robot Ventures, stated that Ripple currently has a large user base but only a handful of DeFi applications, and he is preparing to invest in and assist developers building applications in the Ripple ecosystem.

KaJ Labs, the developer of the innovative enterprise platform Atua AI, recently announced a $100 million investment specifically to create AI tools for the Ripple ecosystem, leveraging Ripple's infrastructure to enhance AI-driven solutions in DeFi and enterprise operations.

With the rise of meme coin issuance and speculation, the development of memes within the XRP ecosystem has also garnered attention, such as First Ledger, a meme coin issuance platform built on XRPL, which functions similarly to Pump.fun.

ChainCatcher previously summarized "Projects Related to the XRP Ecosystem: XRP Soars, Reviewing 9 Associated Ecosystem Issued Token Projects"

2. Litecoin (LTC) Starts Embracing Memes

Litecoin (LTC), as an ancient public chain token that emerged alongside Bitcoin, has not been able to regain its former popularity after last year's halving event. However, as the first established fork coin based on Bitcoin's code, LTC has continued to attract market attention. Its founder, Charlie Lee, recently stated in an interview that many institutions still have demand for LTC, as evidenced by the daily data growth of Grayscale's LTC trust fund, with its price currently more than double its net asset value.

In October this year, ETF issuer Canary Capital submitted a registration application for an LTC ETF to the U.S. SEC.

Recently, under the wave of meme popularity, LTC has also made frequent appearances. On November 14, Litecoin's official announcement stated that LTC also possesses MEME coin attributes, instantly igniting market enthusiasm, pushing LTC's price up 15%, and reaching a new high since May at $85. Litecoin has engaged in a meme mascot competition with several crypto companies such as Coinbase and Binance, and the DOGE community spontaneously designed a mascot named Lester, which was issued as a meme token called lestercoin by a third party, sparking speculation around the Lester token, with its market cap nearing $100 million. However, the Litecoin official quickly stated that it is unrelated to the project and emphasized that Lester is not its official mascot.

As of December 12, LTC was priced at $120, with a 100% increase over the past month.

3. Hedera Takes Off with RWA Narrative

Hedera (HBAR) is a blockchain platform launched in 2019 based on the DAG consensus algorithm, initially appearing as a consortium chain serving traditional financial giants, but has now transformed into a public blockchain in the traditional sense.

On November 13 this year, crypto investment firm Canary Capital officially submitted an ETF application for HBAR to the U.S. SEC. Compared to well-known coins like SOL, XRP, and LTC that have applied for ETFs, HBAR is relatively unfamiliar.

Hedera gained widespread attention in April this year when the RWA narrative announced a partnership with global asset management giant BlackRock. It is reported that BlackRock has teamed up with crypto exchange Archax, tokenization infrastructure provider Ownera, and the HBAR Foundation to utilize the Hedera network for tokenizing its U.S. Treasury money market fund (MMF). Upon the announcement, Hedera's token HBAR saw an immediate price surge, doubling in value.

However, the good times did not last long, as BlackRock later clarified that it had "no direct commercial relationship" with Hedera and did not directly participate in the decision to tokenize its Treasury fund with Archax and Ownera, nor did it choose Hedera as a tokenization platform for any of its funds. This clarification led to a more than 30% drop in HBAR's price within 24 hours.

Despite the partnership with BlackRock not meeting expectations, Hedera has successfully attracted public attention and established a good image in the crypto community. Especially with the gradual warming of the RWA field, institutional investment in RWA is increasing, and the Hedera blockchain is actively developing RWA business, supporting developers to utilize the Hedera blockchain for the tokenization of real-world assets. Hedera has been regarded as an ideal platform for traditional financial institutions to tokenize and trade assets.

According to official data from Hedera, assets worth up to $50 million have been tokenized through the platform, serving clients including trust investment firm Abrdn and Shinhan Bank.

In October this year, Canary Capital launched the HBAR Trust fund targeting institutional investors.

Additionally, HBAR board member Brian Brooks is also a potential candidate for the next SEC chair. If Brian Brooks is successfully nominated as SEC chair, it could not only mean a more favorable attitude from the SEC towards cryptocurrencies but also bring significant positive effects for HBAR, maintaining its price increase trend.

As of December 12, HBAR was priced at $0.3.

4. Cardano (ADA) New Narrative: Transitioning to Bitcoin L2

Due to the Cardano network's governance structure, which employs a tripartite organization—IOHK leading technical development, EMURGO (responsible for business and commercial applications), and the Cardano Foundation (responsible for promotion and community governance)—it is often referred to as "Japan's Ethereum," especially since the Emurgo organization is based in Japan and led the fundraising for its token ADA there.

Cardano (ADA) often ranks among the top ten public chain assets by market cap and is affectionately referred to as "Japan's Ethereum" in the Chinese community. Since its launch in 2017 by Charles Hoskinson (a co-founder of Ethereum), Cardano has adopted a proof-of-stake (PoS) mechanism, serving as an upgrade to the classic proof-of-work (PoW) consensus mechanisms used by Bitcoin and Ethereum at the time.

Additionally, Cardano's governance structure is unique, employing a tripartite organizational model that ensures the harmonious coexistence of technical development, business operations, and community governance. IOHK focuses on technological innovation, EMURGO is dedicated to business expansion and commercial applications, while the Cardano Foundation is responsible for promotion and community governance. The Emurgo organization, located in Japan, led the ICO fundraising for ADA, hence Cardano is often referred to as "Japan's Ethereum" by the community.

In October this year, Cardano experienced a historic turning point when founder Charles Hoskinson announced that Cardano L1 would transition to Bitcoin L2 and plans to integrate the BitcoinOS rollup protocol to unlock the liquidity of Bitcoin assets.

On December 11, Hoskinson again spoke on social media platform X, revealing that Bitcoin DeFi would become the core of its strategic blueprint for 2025, stating that a meaningful demonstration version would be created before the Bitcoin conference in May 2025.

Currently, ADA is priced at $1.17.

5. BNBChain Ecosystem Meme Boom, Quietly Layout in Bitcoin Ecosystem and AI

BNB Chain, as a representative of exchange public chains in the last bull market, seems to be gradually revitalizing since CZ regained his freedom. Recently, the meme scene within BNB Chain has exploded, with new projects emerging one after another. The Binance platform has successively launched a series of meme projects within the BNB Chain ecosystem, such as Cheems and KOMA from the Shiba Inu family, and the little elephant WHY. To incentivize the development of the meme ecosystem, on December 12, BNB Chain launched a MemeCoin airdrop reward activity, purchasing high-performing meme coins daily, totaling 231 BNB over seven days, and randomly airdropping these tokens to 1,000 eligible community users.

In addition to the booming development of meme projects, BNB Chain's DeFi is also steadily progressing. In November, Binance not only launched its DEX project Thena (THE) within its ecosystem but also announced investments in BNB Chain's re-staking infrastructure Kernel.

In terms of token price, BNB has also shown strong momentum. On December 4, BNB reached an all-time high of $794, with a daily increase of over 24%.

Moreover, Binance is also deeply involved in the Bitcoin ecosystem and AI fields.

In the BTCFi sector, projects like Solv Protocol, Avalon Labs, Lorenzo, Lombard, and Kinza rank high in TVL. Among them, several projects like Solv and Kinza were incubated through its MVB program and received investments from Binance Labs.

In the AI direction, over 30 AI-related projects have been deployed on BNB Chain, and Binance Labs has also invested in and incubated several AI projects, covering various fields such as AI agents, content creation applications, middleware, and infrastructure, including decentralized AI network Sahara AI, chatbot My Shell, AI virtual human game Sleepless AI, AI virtual human HoloWorld AI, and content creation tool NFPrompt.

6. Avalanche (AVAX) Seeks Legitimacy: Collaborating with U.S. Government and Multiple Traditional Giants

Avalanche, once a public chain project that could rival Solana in the last bull market, has seen a significant drop in on-chain activity since the DeFi craze among public chains subsided. Even with Solana's strong recovery, the Avalanche ecosystem has neither followed the meme coin trend as before nor birthed any blockbuster projects, instead facing negative news such as network outages and layoffs.

However, over the past year or two, Avalanche has been actively exploring integration with the traditional financial sector, particularly making significant progress in RWA and collaborations with traditional enterprises. A major advantage of Avalanche's RWA development is that it allows developers or enterprises to create their own independent subnets, enabling some RWA projects to create dedicated subnets that flexibly meet cooperation requirements based on different national or regional legal requirements.

For example, in August last year, asset management giant Franklin Templeton announced plans to expand its on-chain money market fund FOBXX to the Avalanche network; in November of the same year, Citigroup partnered with T. Rowe Price and Fidelity International to develop a foreign exchange solution based on Avalanche, which also became part of the Monetary Authority of Singapore's Project Guardian tokenization initiative; meanwhile, JPMorgan's digital asset platform Onyx also announced plans to utilize Avalanche to create tokenized funds.

Although these collaborations have yielded some results for Avalanche, its network's popularity has not significantly increased. It wasn't until August this year that Grayscale announced the launch of the AVAX Trust—Grayscale Avalanche Trust—that Avalanche began to regain the attention of the crypto market.

Recently, the president of The ETF Store revealed that applications for ADA or AVAX spot ETFs are about to be submitted, undoubtedly adding more expectations for Avalanche's future.

Following this, on December 2, Avalanche founder and CEO Emin Gün Sirer responded to community user inquiries on platform X, revealing that they are in communication and cooperation with the newly appointed U.S. government organization. This news sparked significant interest among users, with AVAX seeing an approximately 80% increase in price over two days.

On December 12, the Avalanche Foundation announced it had raised $250 million through a private token sale, with Galaxy Digital, Dragonfly, and ParaFi Capital among over 40 participating companies, and AVAX was priced at $51.

7. Near Integrates "AI + DA + Chain Abstraction" Narrative

As a representative of sharding technology, Near was once seen as the ultimate form of Ethereum's scalability, naturally attracting attention from the crypto market.

In March this year, when Near founder Illia Polosukhin was announced to appear at the NVIDIA AI conference, the Near public chain became the market's focus, with its token price soaring from around $3 to $9, achieving a cumulative increase of 300% within the month. It was noted that Illia Polosukhin has a strong AI background, having co-built the Transformer architecture, which is the foundation for training today's large language models like ChatGPT.

With the rise of the crypto AI wave, the founder's AI background has led Near to be viewed as a high-quality asset in the crypto AI field. In May this year, Near officially launched its AI initiative, stating that it is entering the next phase of development: aiming to establish Near as a hub for AI development. To this end, the NEAR Foundation will increase investment efforts and has created the NEAR.AI R&D laboratory led by the two founders Alex Skidanov and Illia, planning to first build an "AI Developer" tool to address core issues from user intent to end-to-end Web3 application construction. Additionally, they will hire a team of AI researchers.

On November 11, Near announced the launch of the AI Agent product NEAR Intents, which simplifies users' on-chain operations. Users only need to input commands like "trade," and NEAR Intents will automatically assist users in completing a series of on-chain interactions.

In addition to the AI field, Near is also expanding into popular narratives such as chain abstraction and DA data availability. On November 5, NEAR announced the establishment of a chain abstraction accelerator; as early as November last year, Near had laid out the Near DA modular data service.

In terms of tokens, in November this year, the world's largest crypto ETP provider 21Shares announced the launch of a NEAR protocol staking ETP, allowing investors to reinvest NEAR's staking rewards into the ETP.

As of December 12, Near was priced at $7.

8. Fantom Fully Upgrades to Sonic, Riding the Parallel EVM Narrative

Fantom was once regarded as a powerhouse public chain representative led by DeFi figurehead Andre Cronje during the last bull market. However, due to severe losses of user funds caused by the Multichain cross-chain bridge incident, its ecosystem fell into a quagmire. Recently, with signs of recovery in the crypto market, Fantom is showing signs of revival.

On August 2 this year, the official Fantom team announced that the brand would fully upgrade to Sonic Labs, launching a new L1 blockchain called Sonic Network, which can directly bridge with Ethereum's L2 network and features parallel EVM functionality. Its director Andre Cronje has been appointed as the Chief Technology Officer (CTO) and will continue to lead the design and development of the Sonic network.

In the Sonic ecosystem, the S token will replace the original FTM token as the new token introduced in the Sonic upgrade, becoming a key force driving the development of the Sonic network ecosystem. The initial supply of the S token is as high as 3.175 billion, consistent with the total supply of FTM tokens. At the official launch of the Sonic network, Fantom will provide users with a convenient 1:1 conversion mechanism from FTM tokens to S tokens.

On December 12, Sonic Labs officially announced that its mainnet would be launched next week, revealing that over 100 applications have already been deployed on the network. Currently, the FTM token is priced at $1.2, with a 100% increase over the past month.

9. Polygon (POL) CEO: Bias Against Founders Being Indian Hinders Mass Adoption

Polygon, as a flagship project of the last public chain craze, announced its upgrade to Polygon 2.0 last July, fully transforming into a ZK Rollup-driven L2 multi-chain network ecosystem. The MATIC token was upgraded to POL, and the issuance cap was removed, leading to a continuous decline in on-chain data.

Despite the emergence of blockbuster applications like Polymarket on the Polygon chain during this year, which shone during the U.S. presidential election, and despite Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin praising Polygon for maintaining stability and low fees to support important applications like Polymarket on December 7, Polygon, as the underlying infrastructure for Polymarket, has not received much attention.

On November 25, Polygon Labs CEO Marc Boiron posted on social media platform X, stating that bias against the Indian co-founder has become a significant factor hindering the development of the Polygon network. He wrote that the Indian heritage of co-founder Sandeep Nailwal has sparked bias, limiting Polygon's mass adoption. If Sandeep were not Indian, Polygon might have received enthusiastic support from the Web3 community rather than being viewed as marginalized.

As of December 12, POL was priced at $0.64.

10. Cosmos (ATOM) Governance Turmoil and Ongoing Controversy

Cosmos (ATOM), as a star representative project of cross-chain technology, has always attracted attention from the crypto market. Just as Bitcoin reaches new heights and various projects compete to shine in this bull market, the accelerator within the Cosmos Hub ecosystem is mired in personnel turmoil. The Cosmos Hub serves as a bridge for communication between various chains within the Cosmos ecosystem through the IBC protocol, playing a role similar to a logistics hub and being a key node for many blockchains.

On October 8, Amrani, co-founder of the Cosmos ecosystem accelerator DAO organization (Atom Accelerator), was dismissed, followed by the collective resignation of several executives. This turmoil stemmed from serious disagreements over the distribution of performance bonuses.

Atom Accelerator is the accelerator for the Cosmos Hub ecosystem, primarily dedicated to promoting the development of the Cosmos Hub ecosystem and the ATOM token, having invested millions of dollars in support. The organization was founded in 2023, with most members being part-time personnel funded by Cosmos Hub. In its founding year, it received a grant of 1 million ATOM tokens (valued at over $8 million at the time) to support the development of crypto projects in 2024, reserving 100,000 ATOM tokens for team performance and bonus distribution. So far, Atom Accelerator has provided over $6 million in cryptocurrency funding to more than 80 organizations.

Following the dismissal of founder Amrani, the team has differing opinions on the "reserved 100,000 ATOM tokens distribution." Based on ATOM's recent price of $10, this fund is valued at $1 million. Some support direct liquidation, while others disagree, arguing that the current investment returns are problematic and accusing Amrani of potential favoritism or nepotism in funding projects during his tenure, calling for a thorough investigation.

As early as August this year, LI.FI researcher Arjun published an in-depth analysis of the severe challenges facing the Cosmos ecosystem. He pointed out that the Interchain Foundation (ICF), responsible for overseeing the Cosmos ecosystem, has faced criticism for mismanagement, conflicts of interest, and lack of transparency, which have severely eroded the community's trust. The community has called for a comprehensive audit of the ICF and a complete reform of its leadership. Subsequently, in September, the Interchain Foundation faced a vote of no confidence due to questions about its leadership's mismanagement and was asked to publish years of financial records.

In response to community concerns, as of December 12, the Interchain Foundation has not made any positive responses. However, since August this year, the organization has been releasing a monthly financial report. Currently, ATOM is priced at $9, with an approximate 200% increase over the past month.