Will Bitcoin be killed by quantum computers? What should Bitcoin do next?

The time waiting for results feels torturous, and when that moment arrives, looking at the 0.xxxx BTC in your wallet, the dopamine from your adrenal glands suddenly leaks out. You predicted the right number but didn't buy; the jackpot has nothing to do with you, and you feel like a loser. What's even more frustrating is the impact and anxiety brought by the A8 withdrawal of close friends and soul mentors in the circle, just hoping for another chance to get back in.

Knowing is easy, doing is hard—this is a common problem for everyone, and there are as many roadblocks as there are people who think they know where the bottom is.

On December 10, Google introduced its latest quantum chip, Willow, in an official blog post, sparking renewed discussions in the crypto community about quantum computing attacks. Will quantum computing undermine existing encryption security mechanisms, especially posing a threat to mainstream cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin?

Part of this is influenced by news; according to Coinglass data, a severe correction in the crypto market triggered $1.758 billion in liquidations within 24 hours. Bitcoin fell from $100,000 to $94,000, a drop of about 6%. Ethereum and other altcoins fared even worse. From last night's peak, Ethereum saw a minimum drop of about 10%, while other altcoins dropped as much as 20%.

Did you seize the opportunity in front of you? As for whether quantum computing will kill crypto, if you don't understand the technology, that's fine, but you need to calculate the cost of investment. Whether it's mining the remaining Bitcoin or addressing the security issues of existing Bitcoin, is using quantum computers for encryption more profitable than costly, or is it just a way to doom you?

If we simplify the Bitcoin protocol, it can be divided into two parts: mining (based on hash) and transactions (based on elliptic curve signatures). To attack Bitcoin's hash and signatures in a short time, it is estimated that a quantum computer with about 13 million qubits would be needed to complete decryption within 24 hours. In contrast, Google's Willow chip, while a significant advancement, only has 105 qubits, and the required computing power might be as Musk said, needing solar panels installed in all deserts; using a cannon to kill a mosquito is not cost-effective.

However, some ancient wallets that used the Pay-To-Public-Key format could leak public keys. Once the public key is exposed, the adjusted Shor algorithm for ECDSA can run on an ideal quantum computer to find the private key in polynomial time, including Satoshi's 1 million Bitcoins. Today's crypto wallets no longer use this format, and Vitalik Buterin has proposed a method to mitigate quantum computing risks. He explained in a March X post that this issue could be resolved through a simple hard fork. Users would need to download new wallet software, and most users would not lose their funds.

Of course! Bitcoin is continuously evolving, and in the future, hash-based Lamport signatures could be introduced. Quantum-resistant methods, such as lattice-based cryptography, could also be implemented. Moreover, these can be activated through soft forks. Besides developers, good usage habits can effectively defend against quantum threats. For instance, changing the receiving address (one address per transaction) instead of reusing addresses. Assets can also be transferred to relatively safer segregated witness addresses before quantum computers pose a significant threat, and so on.

Quantum computers still need a long time to mature, and during this period, the encryption algorithms of blockchain will continue to iterate and upgrade, with both sides in a game state, jointly promoting technological progress and development.

On the same day, another major event also affected Bitcoin's trajectory. Microsoft's major shareholders voted against including Bitcoin on the company's balance sheet, believing that incorporating Bitcoin does not align with the long-term interests of shareholders. They are concerned that Bitcoin's high volatility could negatively impact the company's financial stability and are uncertain whether such an investment can guarantee positive returns for investors. Market sentiment was thus somewhat impacted.

What will the market look like next?

Now, Trump's power and ambition, with the three powers combined, surpass those of previous policymakers, including himself in 2016, but there is still more than a month until he can truly spread his wings. Additionally, there are liquidity demands from the Western Christmas and Eastern Spring Festival, which will intensify market fluctuations. Opportunities lie within, wishing you well!