Crypto's "money-making time"

Author: Joe, Foresight News

Now, we are in the "money-making time" of the cryptocurrency market.

One month after Trump's election, "traders" experienced a "money-making moment" in the cryptocurrency market. Marking November 6, the day Trump was elected as the new President of the United States, during the month (November 6 - December 6), over half of the top 100 tokens by market capitalization saw gains exceeding 100%, with instances of tokens doubling in value almost daily, officially entering the "altcoin season."

According to the latest statistics from Foresight News, during the period from November 6 to December 6, 55% of the top 100 tokens by market capitalization saw gains exceeding 100%, 84% saw gains exceeding 50%, and 97% saw gains exceeding 30%. Among the top 100 tokens, only three tokens had gains below 30%: BNB (24%), XMR (24%), and Popcat (---1.56%). During the same period, even among tokens ranked 100 to 200 by market capitalization, 39% saw gains exceeding 100%, and 87% saw gains exceeding 30%.

In just one month, over half of the top 100 tokens in the cryptocurrency market saw gains exceeding 100%, indicating that this period was a "gold rush" for the cryptocurrency market (Note: Currently, even the lowest market cap token among the top 100 cryptocurrencies has a market cap exceeding $1 billion, based on post-gain statistics).

So, when did this altcoin season start? Why did it start? How long will such a "money-making moment" last? Does the lack of significant gains in some cryptocurrencies mean they have been abandoned by the market? How should ordinary cryptocurrency practitioners position themselves? This article provides a relatively subjective analysis by the author, not investment advice, and is for record reference only.

How Did the "Altcoin Season" Come About?

Trump's election is considered the most critical event that initiated this round of cryptocurrency "altcoin season."

If you randomly open the "one-year chart" of any cryptocurrency, you will find that November 6 is an important turning point and watershed. For investors or traders, it becomes particularly important to seize this critical time point of Trump's election for focused positioning.

On November 6, 2024, Trump successfully defeated Harris and was elected as the new President of the United States. Due to Trump's many promises to voters supporting the development of the cryptocurrency industry during his campaign, he is referred to as the first "Bitcoin President" of the United States, which also opened the floodgates for global capital to flow into the cryptocurrency industry.

As the curtain rises on this phase of the bull market, the "flow" and "velocity" of funds within the cryptocurrency market—specifically, which sectors funds choose first and which tracks they follow—became the focus of traders.

How to Efficiently Capture the "Altcoin Season"?

The author believes that from the perspective of Bitcoin breaking through key levels, this round of "altcoin season" can be roughly divided into three phases: the initiation phase, the acceleration phase, and the full take-off phase.

(1) Initiation Phase of Altcoin Season. The first phase lasts one week, from November 6 to November 14, during which Bitcoin rose from $69,000 to $90,000. The characteristic of this phase is that Bitcoin and the Memecoin sector led the entire cryptocurrency market.

(2) Acceleration Phase of Altcoin Season. The second phase lasts nine days, from November 14 to November 23. After briefly consolidating at $90,000, Bitcoin quickly broke through $99,000 but stopped at $100,000. The characteristic of this phase is that "popular public chains" like Solana and SUI experienced rapid increases, with the market seeing instances of tokens rising by hundreds or even thousands of times. The phenomenon of altcoins doubling in a single day began to occur frequently.

(3) Full Take-off Phase of Altcoin Season. The third phase lasts two weeks, from November 23 to December 5, during which Bitcoin consolidated at $99,000 before finally breaking through $100,000. The characteristic of this phase is that altcoins took off collectively, with the cryptocurrency market blooming, and most altcoins achieving doubling.

It can be observed that in the first and second phases, funds primarily flowed into the hottest cryptocurrency tracks of the year, such as memecoins and popular public chains. By the third phase, funds began to "fill in the gaps," flowing into relatively less popular tracks and sectors.

Firstly, in the first phase, the explosion of Memecoins left a deep impression on the author.

This phase started on November 6 and ended on November 14, lasting about a week. During this week, Bitcoin rose from $69,000 to $90,000. In this phase, the gains of Memecoins were significantly higher than most sectors in the cryptocurrency market. The leading Memecoin, Dogecoin, led the charge, rising from $0.17 to $0.46 from November 6 to November 23, a gain of 170%. The leading memecoins on Solana and Base, WIF and BRETT, also saw gains exceeding 100% within a week. As a hotly discussed sector during this cycle, Memecoins, particularly Dogecoin, benefited from the key figure of this election, Elon Musk's DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency) hype, which initiated growth, aligning with the trading and liquidity habits of large capital.

Additionally, during this phase, the "listing effect" of leading exchanges like Binance was amplified. On November 11, Binance announced the listing of two spot trading pairs, PNUT and ACT. From November 11 to 14, PNUT saw a 20-fold increase in three days, while ACT saw a 40-fold increase in three days. They only stopped their frenzied rise once Bitcoin reached the new resistance point of $90,000.

In the second phase, the comprehensive explosion of public chains left a deep impression on the author, with two "dark horse public chains" leading the charge, and many altcoins doubling in a day.

The second phase lasted nine days, from November 14 to November 23, during which Bitcoin rose from $90,000 to $99,000. This phase was marked by the continued explosion of various promising public chains, which, as one of the largest tracks, further attracted a significant influx of funds. Solana and Sui became hot tracks in 2024, also becoming the primary choices for large capital inflows. From November 6 to November 23, over 17 days, Solana and Sui rose by 73% and 100%, respectively.

During this phase, several new hundred-fold or even thousand-fold tokens emerged on-chain. For example, the new hundred-fold token Clanker on Base rose from $2 on the 13th to $140 on the 27th before retreating, achieving a maximum increase of 70-fold in two weeks.

In the third phase, altcoins took off comprehensively.

The third phase lasted two weeks, from November 23 to December 5, during which Bitcoin consolidated at $99,000 before finally breaking through $100,000. During this period, not only did altcoins take off collectively, but most altcoins also doubled within a month, with some achieving three or even four times their value within the month.

For instance, TRX rose from $0.23 to $0.44 in just one night on December 3, a gain of 97%; the "U.S. SEC Chairman candidate concept coin" RSR rose from below $0.01 to $0.025 in one day from the early hours of December 3 to December 4, a gain of 150%; and "RWA leader" Ondo rose from $1.2 to $1.72 in less than a day on December 3, gaining nearly 50% in one day and tripling within a month…

These tokens already had high market capitalizations, many exceeding $1 billion, with some tokens like TRX even exceeding $10 billion, capable of doubling in a single day. At this stage, most cryptocurrency practitioners had realized that the altcoin season had arrived, and it was "money-making time" in the crypto space.

During the period from November 6 to December 6, among cryptocurrencies with a market cap exceeding $100 million, seven achieved gains of over three times, including: XRP (three times), XLM (four times), HBAR (five times), ALGO (three times), IOTA (three times), PNUT (16 times), and CRV (3.4 times).

However, the author found that except for PNUT, which achieved super gains due to being listed on a leading exchange like Binance at the right time, other tokens do not possess universal trading applicability. Notable trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio stated on social media on November 16, "XRP, ADA, and DOGE performed excellently, completely crushing all other assets that the crypto Twitter community touched during the early stages of the bull market, which was absolutely not on my expected list, but I gladly accepted it."

Overall, seizing the critical time point of Trump's election as President of the United States for heavy positioning may be more important. Choosing relatively high-quality cryptocurrencies, such as Solana, SUI, Arb, OP, ENA, etc., is secondary; at least during this time period, their gains were roughly similar.

Sector Rotation: Who Was Left Behind?

A month is enough time for most cryptocurrency sectors to rotate through, yet there are still some crypto sectors that have not yet been rotated.

These sectors may become key directions for market exploration in the future, or they may be completely abandoned by the market.

The author found that during the period from November 6 to December 7, the major cryptocurrency sectors that had already been rotated included: public chain sector (Ethereum up 50%, SUI up 90%, ARB up 120%); stablecoin sector (ENA up 164%); AI sector (WLD up 106%); CEX sector (Bitget up 135%); DEX sector (Uniswap up 100%); RWA sector (ONDO up 147%); staking and re-staking sector (PUFFER up 216%); NFT sector (BLUR up 100%); memecoin sector (DOGE up 111%, PEPE 131%); metaverse sector (SAND up 261%); DEPIN sector (RENDER up 115%); Web3 gaming sector (GALA up 188%); decentralized storage sector (FIL up 121%), among others. Most of them are leading tracks or "new dark horses" emerging from large tracks.

However, there are still many sectors that have not been fully rotated, such as the Bitcoin sector, TON sector, Web3 gaming sector, and Web3 social sector. The leading tokens in these sectors and most tokens in the ecosystem have not performed strongly in this nearly "full bloom" altcoin season.

The Bitcoin ecosystem had often been a hot topic in the market in 2024, but during the period from November 6 to December 6, when altcoins took off comprehensively, its performance was not satisfactory. Among the top 200 cryptocurrencies by market cap, Bitcoin ecosystem tokens, Ordi rose by 41%, Sats by 31%, and DOG by 55%, none of which exceeded 100% gains.

The TON sector and track also became a focus of market attention multiple times in 2024 and saw several tokens listed on major exchanges, but overall performance did not show strong momentum. TON rose by 44%, NOT by 53%, and DOGS by 51%, while other tokens have not yet entered the top 200 cryptocurrencies by market cap. Most of the TON ecosystem tokens in the top 500 cryptocurrencies have also not achieved gains exceeding 100%.

The Web3 gaming sector currently has GALA as the highest market cap token, with a gain of 188%, but this is mainly reflected at the infrastructure level. In terms of specific gaming products, GMT, ACE, etc., although they also saw gains exceeding 50%, none exceeded 100%, indicating that the market has not yet decided to fully buy into them.

The same goes for the Web3 social sector, where none of the Web3 social-related cryptocurrencies made it to the list of the top 200 cryptocurrencies by market cap. This seems to indicate that the development of the Web3 social track is still in its early stages, and the market has not found sufficiently good investment targets within it.

However, although these sectors have not performed strongly, it may indicate that the sector rotation has not yet ended, and structural opportunities still exist.

How Long Will the Altcoin Season Last?

The altcoin season has lasted a full month, and when it will end has become a key focus of the market.

The author believes that the end time of the altcoin season needs to be analyzed over a span of one or two weeks. The first month of the altcoin season can be divided into three phases: initiation phase (Bitcoin $69,000 - $90,000), acceleration phase ($90,000 - $99,000), and full bloom phase ($99,000 officially breaking through $100,000). The first phase lasted one week, from November 6 to November 14; the second phase lasted nine days, from November 14 to November 23; and the third phase lasted two weeks, from November 23 to December 5.

If Bitcoin fails to break through new highs again within two weeks, for example, if it does not surpass $110,000 within two weeks, this may indicate a lack of new liquidity in the market, and the altcoin season may end. Similarly, for Ethereum, if it does not continue to push prices higher on the basis of $4,000 within two weeks, it may also indicate that the market lacks momentum.

Additionally, the U.S. Ethereum spot ETF has seen net inflows for seven consecutive days; if net outflows occur, this may also indicate a turning point for this round of altcoin season.

The altcoin market in cryptocurrency has already reached a scale of hundreds of billions of dollars, which naturally generates some market rules.

The start of the altcoin season is often triggered by a significant event, such as the approval of the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF on January 10 or Trump's victory in the U.S. presidential election on November 6. After these two events occurred, the entire cryptocurrency market entered a frenzy of bull market, often lasting a month or even several months.

However, the funds flowing into the cryptocurrency market are limited, and the altcoin season will eventually come to an end. The more fervent the altcoin season, the shorter its duration tends to be. If Bitcoin and Ethereum do not reach new highs within a week or two, this may be a warning signal worth paying attention to.