Exclusive Interview with Xiao Z: The Business Insights of a "Listing Expert" in CEX

Author: A Ray's New World, Blockbeats

Since October, listing new coins on CEX has become a new science. Whether it's ACT, PNUT, or MOODNEG, countless people have become wealthy because of these new coins. Every batch of players who are waiting for these potential listings hold their breath when CEX releases announcements, hoping to be that lucky one.

However, apart from preemptive positioning, there is a group of players like Xiao Z who focus on studying CEX announcements, forming a strategy known as "announcement trading." With his understanding of CEX, Xiao Z not only successfully positioned himself in some potential listings (like CAT MOODNEG) but also made considerable profits after the CEX announcements were released (such as PEPE, ACT, OL). Therefore, Blockbeats specifically chatted with Xiao Z about the lesser-known world of announcement trading.

Blockbeats: When did you start paying attention to "announcement trading"?

Xiao Z: I entered the market during the last bull run in 2021, so I have experienced a full cycle of bull and bear markets. In 2022, I saw an article by the founder of a project on Zhihu, and inspired by Vida's article on Zhihu, I began to study CEX announcements. There are actually many opportunities in announcements, but they are often overlooked. For example, during the last bull market, the listing effects of Binance and Coinbase were very good; many people made significant profits by preemptively positioning themselves, but some also chased after the announcements and still got results.

Moreover, during the 2021 bull market, there weren't as many VC coins as there are in this bull market. For instance, some coins would launch with market caps of hundreds of millions or even billions, only to end up cutting retail investors. At that time, many coins launched with only a few million or tens of millions in market cap, so these "announcement traders" could achieve considerable profits through preemptive positioning. Some smart money would exploit testing loopholes in announcements, discovering them in advance and positioning themselves accordingly. Meanwhile, in this round, the listing effects of Upbit and Binance are also good, but it seems that not many people in the Chinese community are paying attention. I think this track is still relatively blue ocean, so I started researching this area. However, the gameplay in this round is quite different from the last; the listing effect of Coinbase is not as strong, and there are very few small-cap projects listed on exchanges.

Blockbeats: Can you give some examples of testing loopholes? How do smart money discover these loopholes?

Xiao Z: Let me give a few simple examples of loopholes. The first loophole is due to engineer oversight. Taking a certain CEX as an example, CEX not only has a main webpage but also different announcement pages. For instance, when they want to release some listing announcements, they will publish them on the announcement page. There are many interfaces across different websites, and sometimes developers or testing engineers may overlook something; for example, a news announcement that was expected to be released at 10 PM might leak on the backend at 9:50 PM, and then the official announcement comes out 10 minutes later. This is a relatively common loophole.

Another example is the loophole of testing engineers. For instance, a testing engineer at a certain CEX might repeatedly test a token on a specific chain using the same wallet. For example, if the CEX is testing a B token on the Solana chain, and the engineer previously tested an A token, this wallet might be the one the engineer has been using. Some on-chain experts can capture these testing wallets to obtain potential listing information.

Blockbeats: What do you think about the listing effect of Coinbase this time? Why is it much weaker compared to the last round?

Xiao Z: Coinbase's performance this time is indeed not as impressive, and the beneficial effect is not as strong as it was back then. I think the main reason is regulatory issues. However, some coins still have good listing effects. For example, ONDO in the RWA sector initially launched on Coinbase and surged several times. Another one is AERO; Aerodrome Finance is a DEX on Base, and when it launched on Coinbase earlier this year, its price was only $0.09. After launching, it started to rally, reaching a peak of $2.3, which is about a 20-fold increase from the bottom. Of course, this is also due to their low market cap at launch; AERO initially had only a $10 million market cap, making it easier to pump.

In addition to the low market cap opportunities mentioned above, there are also some high market cap opportunities, such as some meme coins that have recently launched. For example, PEPE surged 50% after launching on Coinbase. Of course, there are other factors involved, like Upbit and Robinhood. However, meme coins like WIF and FLOKI also saw increases of over 30% after launching on Coinbase. Overall, while there are still opportunities, the listing situation on Coinbase this time is relatively average, possibly due to regulatory reasons. However, this bull market on Coinbase has sparked a wave of innovation from the Base ecosystem. If Ethereum has a chance for salvation, the only savior lies within the Base ecosystem. All the interesting innovations in the Ethereum ecosystem, such as new concepts like AI pump.fun, are flourishing on Base, while other L2 chains are basically dead chains.

Blockbeats: What aspects of announcement research are you focusing on the most now?

Xiao Z: During the last bull market, I was still in a novice stage, randomly researching everything—sometimes leverage, sometimes contracts, sometimes chain games. In fact, I only started researching announcement-related information from this round, 2023 to 2024. A friend of mine developed a monitoring program similar to the formula news that can track more CEX announcement information. In addition to a few leading CEXs, I am also paying attention to some second-tier CEXs.
After each CEX releases an announcement, I study to see if there are any opportunities. I analyze the content of the announcement and its news effect, and I continuously review my findings. Gradually, I also learned about news trading, or what is now popularly called event-driven trading. For example, the well-known formula news has made millions from ACT through this "news trading." Of course, the trading method of the formula requires some technology, which is not suitable for everyone to apply. So I began to carefully study some manual trading opportunities that are more friendly to players without much technology.

For instance, there was a case with a16z's Eliza that had a case sensitivity dispute. It actually follows the same logic as Neiro, but the latter launched on leading CEXs. Can it be replicated? I don't think so. Eliza also had controversies regarding "community" and "conspiracy groups," with both sides fighting fiercely. At that time, the uppercase ELIZA surged much more than the lowercase version, and many people relied on the previous logic of Neiro to chase the lowercase version, leading to many being trapped. I didn't jump in at the beginning of the debate; I was just observing. The turning point for me was when I saw on HTX's announcement that HTX would list the lowercase version, so I started to get involved. This indicated that CEX supported lowercase tokens. As a result, the lowercase version did indeed surpass the uppercase version.
In fact, not just the leading CEXs, but announcements from various CEXs hide wealth codes, but they need to be analyzed in conjunction with specific hot topics, the overall environment, and the fundamentals of the tokens.

Blockbeats: Can you share more examples of "announcement trading"?

Xiao Z: Of course. For example, there have been many opportunities in recent announcements from OKX. For instance, I bought the token OL at a price of 0.025 and sold it at 0.1; very few people noticed such opportunities. On November 18, OKX announced that it would launch the spot trading of Openloot's native token OL. The deposit opening time was set for 2 PM that afternoon, with the auction time from 8 PM to 9 PM on November 19, and the opening time at 9 PM. Most people would stop reading here and might not even click on the announcement. Let's look at the fundamentals of Openloot. Openloot is an NFT trading platform for the game Bigtime, where users can use OL as a payment method when purchasing or renting high-value currencies or buying NFTs from major sales. OL's initial circulation was only 200 million, while the total supply is 5 billion, making the initial circulation rate extremely low. The game token for Bigtime initially launched at a very low opening price. However, Bigtime initially restricted trading for Chinese users, allowing only API orders or requiring users to deposit Bigtime into the exchange to trade, so many people were unaware. It opened at 0.002 and surged dozens of times the next day.
So after researching, I believe OL has the same low opening gene as Bigtime. Meanwhile, during the auction phase on November 19, OL's auction price was around 0.02 (eventually opening around 0.025). Based on 0.02, OL's circulating market cap was only $4 million. Even if you didn't buy the cheaply priced OL during the auction, OL maintained a market cap of around $10 million for a long time after opening, still offering a favorable risk-reward ratio.

Another example is the recent Morpho. Although MORPHO's market cap is not as "cheap" as OL, opportunities still exist. First, it is essential to research the project's fundamentals. MORPHO is an old DeFi project from 2021, with a total supply of 1 billion tokens, just like OL, but only 100 million tokens are circulating, with a total market cap of around $100 million. A $100 million market cap is neither high nor low and may not seem attractive to most people. However, on November 21, from 5:05 PM to 6:05 PM, MORPHO began its auction. The opening auction price once reached $4, while on-chain MORPHO initially fluctuated around $1. After seeing the auction price, we had about an hour to withdraw tokens on-chain and deposit them into the exchange. Even if the withdrawal speed was slow, there were still about two hours after the listing to smooth out the price difference.

So the core is still to study CEX announcements, to research all CEX announcements, and to see if there are any opportunities that are not easily discovered.

Blockbeats: After seeing each exchange announcement, what strategies do you use to respond?

Xiao Z: You need to look at different types of exchange announcements. Some reflect the timing for you; for example, as we discussed above with the OL listing announcement, it was released two days in advance, giving you ample time to research the fundamentals and information about the coin. For instance, what is the cost for gold miners or early players? Additionally, how much is the initial circulating supply locked, and how much is actually available for sale? How much is there for each different exchange? This type of announcement gives you sufficient time to study.

Another type of announcement does not give you time to research; you need to be prepared in advance to position yourself. For example, with the ACT coin listed on BN, when you see this announcement, you should immediately check its fundamentals, such as market cap and where there is liquidity, and then quickly buy according to your strategy. Generally, the beneficial effect of spot trading is far greater than that of futures. When you see that ACT has a market cap of only a few tens of millions, you should buy immediately because the risk-reward ratio is very favorable. A listed target with a market cap of a few tens of millions can be considered very cost-effective. At the same time, you should review and summarize why these coins were listed and how their fundamentals are. What strategy should I adopt next time I encounter a similar situation? However, such sudden announcements require quick reflexes. Formula news has made a lot of money through this method, and after the ACT incident, I believe everyone is starting to gradually understand their trading methods. Some even specifically follow their addresses.

In addition to spot announcements like ACT, there are also contract announcements. We usually believe that the listing effect of spot trading is far greater than that of contract trading. For example, MOODENG had a market cap of only 60 million before listing and had been in a prolonged downtrend. Although this coin only had contracts, its market cap was low enough, and the fundamentals at that time were very good, so even if it was listed as a contract, it still had a strong listing effect. Buying MOODNE at that time with its market cap could result in a maximum loss of 50%, but once it was listed on Binance's spot market, it could potentially see a 3-5 times increase, offering a very favorable risk-reward ratio. This kind of gameplay is feasible, but if a coin's market cap is already in the hundreds of millions, then whether you preemptively position or not, it may not be very suitable.

Blockbeats: What do you think about projects from other ecosystems? For example, the recently popular Desci concept.

Xiao Z: The Desci narrative actually started appearing back in 2022, but it was during a bear market. At that time, there was not much liquidity in the market, so this concept did not take off. During the bear market from 2022 to 2023, Coinbase's founder invested in a project called RSC, and he often promoted it on social media. For a long time, there was no buzz, but suddenly in December last year, it exploded.
Then it fell silent for a long time until this year when BN announced investments in Bio, including some actions by CZ and Vitalik in Bangkok regarding Desci, which I won't elaborate on here. Because of these opportunities, the Desci concept has reignited this year. Desci definitely belongs to a powerful narrative, but this narrative was pushed by "top influencers" rather than naturally fermenting from the grassroots. Such a strongly pushed concept is hard to say.

For example, some concepts led by Coinbase, like Depin. The entire track of Depin is currently quite quiet; you basically see everyone talking about "meme" and "AI," and very few people are discussing Depin. At that time, Coinbase listed many Depin tokens, such as MOBILE HONEY, and later BN also followed suit with IO. However, the market may not necessarily buy into such strongly pushed concepts, and the results have already shown that. Desci is also of this type, so I think everyone needs to do their research on Desci, be ready to act, and respond flexibly.