By doing these four things, you can also become a winner in the bull market

Source: Talking About Li, Talking About Outside

Time sometimes flies by quickly, and before we know it, the Spring Festival will be here in two months. I remember during the last Spring Festival (February 9, 2024), I posted a memo in the group, briefly discussing my views for this year and expressing my personal expectations for this year's bull market. As shown in the figure below.

In many articles from last year, we actually sorted and introduced quite a few narratives (tracks) and corresponding projects. For example, in the e-book "Blockchain Thinking Advancement" (released in December 2023) from Talking About Li, we listed over 20 narrative categories. As shown in the figure below.

However, since entering 2024, we have gradually stopped focusing on too many projects. This can also be observed in the historical articles of Talking About Li; most of the themes we have output this year are more about methodological sorting, which is also the main reason I named this year's e-book "Blockchain Methodology."

Looking back over the past two years, our suggestions based on operational aspects can be summarized into the following directions:

First, we must insist on dollar-cost averaging into Bitcoin.

From the very beginning, our advice has always been to allocate at least 50% of your position to BTC, while the remaining position can be split according to personal risk preferences. This way, even if the positions in altcoins and meme coins are trapped or go to zero after this bull market ends, the 50% BTC that serves as a foundation will likely make up for it.

For example, in this cycle, we started dollar-cost averaging into BTC from May 2022 and officially ended the plan in January 2024. The specific dollar-cost averaging plan has been shared and mentioned multiple times in previous articles from Talking About Li.

Let’s briefly review: our dollar-cost averaging plan spanned 21 months, with consistent investments for 20 months, buying BTC each month. However, there was a small episode; I remember in June 2022, I did not buy as planned because I hesitated. But starting from the next month (July of the same year), I resumed the normal "twenty-month" dollar-cost averaging plan without hesitation, as after a brief moment of doubt, I chose to believe and stick to my judgment.

However, considering that some friends entered this field midway, I later provided a new suggestion in my articles: BTC and ETH can be accumulated until the third quarter of 2024. The reasons for this have been elaborated in the historical articles of Talking About Li. If you have been following Talking About Li for a while, you should understand the points here. If you don’t understand now, I won’t explain further, as these are past matters. Interested friends are advised to download previous e-books from Talking About Li for a review.

But if you just entered the market in the past few days and ask me whether to start accumulating BTC, I won’t give you any specific advice. The only advice I can offer is to read more of our articles or those from other bloggers, observe the market, and keep learning. Improve yourself first; there will be many opportunities in this circle in the future.

Although BTC is currently in an overall upward trend, to be honest, for newcomers (new investors), participating now is likely to lead to difficulties in holding onto positions or falling into a cycle of chasing highs and selling lows. Moreover, BTC has already risen significantly from $15,000 to the current $97,000 in this cycle, and the risks for newcomers will only increase as time goes on.

But for veterans (experienced investors), the saying remains: In terms of the future, buying BTC at any time now is not expensive.

Additionally, many new entrants have been asking what coins (altcoins, memes, or lesser-known coins) can yield at least 10 times returns, or they directly throw a token name at me to see how much it can rise… For such questions, my answer remains: I don’t know.

As mentioned earlier, since entering 2024, we have gradually stopped focusing on too many projects. Therefore, the various project names or tokens sent to me in the backend that I am unfamiliar with, I do not wish to spend time and energy to understand. Perhaps, when the next bear market arrives, we will consider spending some time and energy to pay more attention to and research some interesting projects.

Second, focus on leading projects under popular narratives.

We have mentioned multiple times that everyone’s time and energy are limited. Besides accumulating coins, it is sufficient to focus on 1-3 tracks and delve into research and potential opportunities, or keep an eye on the dynamics of leading projects within those tracks.

Moreover, do not compare yourself with Talking About Li; for example, questioning why we can focus on so many tracks. Don’t forget, Talking About Li is currently a self-media IP, and Da Long is also a blogger. If one focuses on trading, then for most people, concentrating on 1-3 tracks is enough. If you also want to be a blogger, or like Da Long, rarely trade aside from accumulating coins, then you can follow your personal interests to explore many aspects. However, you may find, like Da Long, that you cannot delve too deeply into many areas; this is something you will truly understand only after you have done it.

As mentioned earlier, we have sorted through many narratives before. However, looking back now, we have had both correct and incorrect judgments in this regard.

In terms of narrative dimensions:

We previously emphasized focusing on the AI, RWA, and GameFi tracks. However, as of now, while some projects under the AI and RWA narratives have performed well overall, the overall performance of GameFi has not met our expectations. Nevertheless, the bull market is still ongoing, and perhaps GameFi still has opportunities for speculation.

In terms of ecological dimensions:

We previously focused on the Arbitrum, Avalanche, and Solana ecosystems, but ultimately found that Arbitrum, which we were optimistic about, seemed to lose its spotlight and attention after completing its airdrop, while Solana later became the most eye-catching and attractive ecosystem in this bull market.

However, I did buy a bit of ARB, AVAX, and SOL last year, and the specific buying time and prices have been shared in previous articles from Talking About Li, including the reasons for buying, which have been summarized and shared in detail in earlier articles. For example, one of the main reasons for buying AVAX last year was its new layouts in the RWA and GameFi fields.

In terms of time dimensions:

As mentioned earlier, we started dollar-cost averaging in this cycle from May 2022, which means we believed the bear market for this cycle had begun at that time, and bear markets often last 1-2 years. Hence, we formulated a so-called "twenty-month" dollar-cost averaging plan.

At the same time, we expected that the bull market would likely appear in 2024-2025, possibly lasting until the end of 2025. From the current situation, this expectation has largely been met, but the actual bull market seems to have arrived a bit earlier than we initially anticipated, mainly due to the ETF variables (we did not expect that it would be officially approved this year). Moreover, the bull market is still ongoing, and there may still be some variables or new black swans next year; no one can say for sure.

As for how others should operate next, we do not comment or provide any specific trading guidance. However, our own operations will definitely continue to follow the original plan. That is, we will only make selling operations next and will not make any buying operations. When Bitcoin reaches $100,000, we will begin to sell in batches.

Perhaps, by then, the market trend may still be upward, but we will continue to strictly adhere to our trading discipline. The price target is merely a setting based on dollar-cost averaging average cost + personal expectations; our main logic is still based on the consideration of the larger cycle time dimension. In previous articles from Talking About Li, we have outlined four expected outcomes for this cycle, summarized as follows:

The first is that before the end of 2024, Bitcoin reaches over $100,000 (execute Plan A).

The second is that in the first or second quarter of 2025, Bitcoin reaches over $100,000 (execute Plan A).

The third is that before the end of 2025, Bitcoin reaches over $100,000 (execute Plan A).

The fourth is that Bitcoin fails to reach over $100,000 in this cycle (execute Plan B).

We have corresponding plans and execution schemes for these four situations, which have been shared and elaborated in previous articles from Talking About Li, so I won’t elaborate further. From the current market situation, we will likely execute the second one, meaning we should conduct batch selling operations in the first or second quarter of next year.

Third, if you have the energy, you can research new concepts more.

In the past two years, we have also provided some basic knowledge sorting and introductions on new narratives like BRC20, BTC L2, and ERC404. According to the patterns of each bull market, new narratives often have the most short-term speculation space. What many people refer to as "speculating on new rather than old" actually expresses this idea.

However, looking back now, some narratives have indeed exploded with sustained speculative potential. For example, BRC20 has experienced several rounds of speculation over the past two years, while ERC404 has been more of a flash in the pan. Reflecting on the longer period, many wealth stories and cases have emerged in these new concept areas, even leading to various "eternally profitable masters," attracting many retail investors to join and follow. However, from my personal perspective, most of the retail investors who entered later are likely trapped inside.

New concepts often present greater short-term speculation opportunities and operational space, but this requires a person's ability to filter channels and information, research the underlying logic of early projects, and judge the development of market sentiment… The opportunity for overnight wealth always hides the potential for overnight losses.

Theoretically, heavily investing in new concepts can yield miracles, but investing is also a long-term and comprehensive practice. If you die directly in the darkness before dawn, then the sunlight after dawn will have nothing to do with you.

Many people (especially newcomers) do not know much about the crypto field, and some do not even know basic concepts. Yet, once they enter, they only want to take shortcuts, hoping to learn from or blindly follow those so-called eternally profitable masters to become rich overnight. The outcome of this is predictable.

If a person does not have a reasonable understanding of the relationship between the time and energy they invest and the results they reap, then the market will ultimately become your best teacher.

Fourth, try to maintain focus and patience.

The introduction of the Talking About Li public account currently states: Maintain focus, maintain thinking, maintain patience.

The underlying logic of the market is liquidity. Once the big direction is chosen correctly, money will often flow slowly from the impatient to the patient. Yesterday, I saw a partner in the group post a joke about ETH, with the price change from 2100 to 3700 reflecting a very interesting mindset change process of ordinary investors. In contrast, those who maintain focus are often able to ambush in advance and wait patiently. As shown in the figure below.

In previous articles from Talking About Li, the frequency of the words focus and patience is actually very high. I just did a simple search in the backend; in over 500 past articles, the word focus appeared 111 times, and the word patience appeared 84 times. As shown in the figure below.

It’s like almost everyone knows and agrees that as long as one focuses on dollar-cost averaging into Bitcoin during a bear market and patiently waits to sell during a bull market, they can achieve considerable returns. Yet, the proportion of those who can truly stick to it seems to be quite small. Perhaps only those veterans who have experienced at least 1-2 complete cycles can truly achieve focus and patience.

Although everyone is a different individual, with different backgrounds, experiences, capital sizes, and knowledge accumulations… Sometimes, we always find various reasons for our failures or missed opportunities, but some things are attainable for everyone, such as:

- Learning opportunities

We are now in an era of massive information; you can conveniently access almost any knowledge you want anytime and anywhere, aided by tools like Google and ChatGPT.

Everyone has 24 hours in a day. If a person truly wants to learn and accumulate, no one can stop them; the only one who can stop themselves is themselves.

- Earning opportunities

For example, recently, a friend complained to me in the backend that he heard the U.S. stock market was doing well, but he couldn’t download a trading app. He even mentioned some sensitive political topics in his message. However, some people facing such problems do not choose to complain; they always find ways to seek solutions.

For instance, another friend complained that he knew about Bitcoin years ago, but he couldn’t use a VPN or download trading software, which led him to enter the market only this year, feeling he missed many opportunities to get rich.

How should we interpret this? Some opportunities are beyond our control; for example, some are born into wealthy families, while others are born into poor ones. But some can be actively solved; as long as the direction is correct, it depends on whether you are willing to invest more time, energy, and effort than others. Missing out is not scary; what’s scary is being trapped in past missed opportunities and losing oneself in the present.

Moreover, many times, our choices or the self-changes we need to make are not about surpassing those chosen by destiny or becoming the top 1; it’s enough to be ahead of the vast majority of peers.

For ordinary people, the path to success is not easy. But "though the road is long, it will be reached. Though the task is difficult, it will be accomplished."

The Earth itself is round, not flat, and similarly, society is not "flat." Now, we cannot change our past, and what has been missed can only become a part of history. As ordinary individuals, we cannot change the world, but we can still decide our future "within a suitable range."

Maintaining focus is not just about keeping it simple; it is about pursuing a deeper commitment.

Maintaining patience is not just about ignoring time and fluctuations; it is about pursuing a higher mindset.

A few days ago, Boss Heng in the group shared some of his money-making strategies with me. After chatting for a bit, we mentioned Ahr999. In terms of investment strategies, perhaps we should all learn from Jiu Shen, until we can finally do what Jiu Shen said: "Having coins in hand, but no coins in heart."

Note: The above content is merely personal opinions and analyses, intended for learning records and communication purposes, and does not constitute any investment advice. Any projects or websites mentioned in the article have no direct interest relationship with Talking About Li (Talking About Li does not accept any advertising from project parties). Please evaluate the safety of corresponding projects or websites on your own. Investment always carries risks; avoid entering situations you do not understand, and do not play in situations you cannot afford to lose.