4E: U.S. stocks collectively fell before Thanksgiving, and the October PCE met expectations, boosting rate cut expectations
ChainCatcher news, a report released on Wednesday shows that the Federal Reserve's favorite inflation indicator, while meeting expectations, rebounded in October compared to September, marking the largest increase since April. This data supports the Fed's cautious stance on interest rate cuts, but market expectations for a rate cut in December have not been dampened.
According to 4E monitoring, the three major U.S. stock indices collectively closed lower on Wednesday, ending a recent streak of gains. The Dow Jones fell by 0.31%, the S&P 500 dropped by 0.38%, ending a seven-day winning streak; most large tech stocks declined, and the U.S. stock market will be closed for one day on Thursday, with an early closure on Friday by three hours. Traders seem to be taking profits on large tech stocks that have performed well this year, leading the Nasdaq to drop by 0.60%, the biggest loser among the three indices.
Earlier this week, Bitcoin experienced a pullback as some investors took profits when the price approached a historical milestone. On Wednesday, the crypto market saw a strong rebound, with Bitcoin rising nearly 4.4% in the last 24 hours and Ethereum increasing over 10%, boosting crypto-related stocks, with MicroStrategy up 9.94% and Coinbase up 6.03%.
In the forex commodities sector, the market was quiet ahead of Thanksgiving, with the dollar weakening by about 0.9% to reach a two-week low, while non-dollar currencies rose; news that the OPEC+ meeting on Sunday may delay production increase plans supported oil prices, with U.S. oil closing slightly lower on Wednesday and Brent crude roughly flat; gold prices rose on Wednesday, but the increase narrowed after data showed stagnation in inflation progress, which suppressed rate cut expectations.
Data from recent months suggests that the process of reducing inflation seems to have stalled, which may limit the Fed's room for rate cuts in 2025, but is unlikely to affect the Fed's decision to continue cutting rates at its last monetary policy meeting of the year. The market currently believes that the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in December has risen to nearly 70%.
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