CHILLGUY 12 times a day, but most people can't benefit from the wealth created by Moonshot
Stop it, Azu. There are news arbitrage bots outside. The average drop in the first 24 hours after the token listing announcement in the past week is 2%, with a cumulative drop of 40%.Author: Nan Zhi, Odaily Planet Daily
Last month, the Meme trading platform Moonshot became popular, with the community claiming it solved the "last mile" problem of Meme tokens and had a strong listing effect. In our article "Promoting Meme Barometer, Does Moonshot Really Have a Listing Effect?," we verified through backtesting that the listing effect of Moonshot is extremely short-lived, only significantly effective around the 5-minute mark, with no medium to long-term benefits, which is inconsistent with community claims.
However, last week, after CHILLGUY was listed on Moonshot, its market cap surged from $16 million to $200 million in just one day, and reached a market cap of $500 million four days later.
To explore whether Moonshot has reversed the fundamental rule of "short-lived listing effects," we reviewed the price data of tokens listed on Moonshot over the past week, aiming to verify the accuracy of our conclusions once again.
Short-term Listing Effect Strengthened, Long-term Still Ineffective
In our previous article, we concluded that the Moonshot listing saw a significant price increase in the first 5 minutes, slight differentiation after 1 hour, and began to diverge after 4 hours, with most tokens ultimately trending towards zero.
The price changes of the 11 tokens listed in the past week at 5 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours, 24 hours, and to date are shown in the following chart.
It can be seen that the average increase in the first 5 minutes rose from 14.7% a month ago to 30.6%, and most tokens maintained this increase during the 1-hour period. This indicates that Moonshot listings have likely become the domain of "quantitative announcement bots," with the 5-minute price increase almost entirely driven by bot news arbitrage.
Extending the timeframe, price changes began to diverge; aside from CHILLGUY, most tokens continued to decline, with some approaching zero.
Detailed Data Presentation
The price changes of tokens in the first 5 minutes after the Moonshot listing are shown in the following chart. In this chart, we included the closing market cap one minute before the token was listed for comparison, clearly showing a significant negative correlation between the 5-minute price increase and the initial market cap; the larger the market cap, the less likely it is to rise, which again confirms that the price increase during this phase is driven by news arbitrage bots.
The price changes of tokens in the first hour are shown in the following chart, where most maintained their original increases. The author speculates that this may be due to trading between bots and real users.
The price changes at 4 hours and 24 hours are shown in the following chart (excluding CHILLGUY due to its excessive increase). The price changes of various tokens began to diverge, with most "breaking" and continuing to decline. By the 24-hour mark, 6 out of 10 tokens had decreased, not counting CHILLGUY's average increase of 5% over 4 hours, with a 24-hour increase of -2%.
The price changes from the token announcement to the present are shown in the following chart, with an average decline of 41.5% not counting CHILLGUY.
In summary, it is very clear that CHILLGUY is just an exception among the tokens listed on Moonshot. The "short-term listing effect" of Moonshot has strengthened, but only arbitrage bots can profit, while the "medium to long-term wealth effect" still does not exist.
