Will there be a raging bull market this year? | Q&A

1 The problem with the stock market is the lack of confidence. Can stimulus bring it back to life?

The stock market certainly needs confidence.

There are two types of confidence: long-term confidence and short-term confidence.

Establishing long-term confidence requires fundamental institutional guarantees.

I will quote Mr. Buffett: the reason he has long-term confidence in the U.S. stock market and American enterprises is that he believes the U.S. can always uphold a market economy and the rule of law.

Whether our country has the institutional guarantees of "market economy" and "rule of law" for long-term confidence is subjective. I cannot judge. Therefore, in all my articles discussing A-shares, I have never claimed that A-shares will experience a long-term bull market like the U.S. stock market.

All my comments on A-share trends refer to short-term or at most medium-term.

Short-term and medium-term trends can completely deviate from the fundamentals of economic development and institutions and be stimulated by external conditions (either from the government or speculative capital).

If certain large-scale stimulus measures are introduced, short-term confidence can also be stimulated: "Three consecutive bullish candles change three views" refers to this kind of short-term confidence.

Such examples are always repeating, not only common in the history of A-shares but also occurring in other countries with similar systems (such as Vietnam).

2 How to view Aleo with zero-knowledge proof?

I think I have shared this project in previous articles.

However, after reading some reports on zero-knowledge proofs recently, I have gained some new insights into this field.

Overall, I still hold a relatively conservative attitude towards layer-one blockchains; the quality of such projects still depends on what their core functions are.

Specifically regarding this project, it is essentially still a smart contract platform, but with the addition of zero-knowledge proof features.

I actually think that a category of tools, components, or middleware specifically designed for handling zero-knowledge proofs may have broader applications. These tools, components, or middleware can better modularize and integrate with existing smart contract blockchains, making them more flexible and focused.

I have not participated in this project.

3 Will there be a raging bull market this year?

Readers often leave comments asking whether there will be a bull market this year or next year, and they particularly emphasize whether there will be a "raging" bull market.

I don't know.

But I suggest that as investors, we should avoid such thoughts and let things take their natural course.

During a bear market, focus on learning; during a downturn, focus on positioning. As for when the bull market will come and what will happen when it does, just maintain an attitude of "doing what you can, leaving the rest to fate."

Additionally, from a metaphysical perspective: often, the more we anticipate something, the less likely it is to happen. And if what we expect does come true, that is entirely a blessing from past lives, and then we can only ask ourselves, not others.

4 How is TON?

The biggest potential of TON is the expectation of converting Telegram's vast user base into TON's user base. According to relevant data, Telegram has nearly 200 million daily active users, and if just 1% of these users convert to TON users, it would be significant.

This potential is indeed large.

However, I am skeptical of this reasoning.

The reason is simple: among these seemingly vast users, what urgent needs or at least 1% of needs can only be met by TON?

I do not see it at the moment.

Some readers might mention payments.

But if it's payments, blockchain technology is not necessary; traditional mobile internet (WeChat, Alipay) can handle it, and the user experience is better. In this case, why must we use TON?

Aside from payments, the only other things that come to mind are entertainment, gambling, or speculation.

If we talk about entertainment, current mobile internet games far exceed blockchain games in terms of user experience, and blockchain games have yet to develop their own killer scenarios.

As for gambling and speculation, I do not believe they are high-frequency urgent needs for the vast user base.

Therefore, I think the small applications currently active on TON are merely experimental and localized applications, and they are likely to find it very difficult to convert Telegram users into TON users on a large scale.