"Speculation" becomes "Investment," is meme no longer just PVP?

Author: CMed, BlockBeats

The "Speculation" Era of Memecoins

Many people say that Solana in this cycle is like Ethereum in the previous cycle, with a significant piece of evidence being the wealth effect brought by Pump.fun in this cycle, which is strikingly similar to the wealth effect from Ethereum's ICO in the last cycle. We have seen many thousandfold and ten-thousandfold coins emerge within just a few days.

Anyone can issue their own Memecoin on Pump.fun, undoubtedly attracting funds to the blockchain, including a considerable amount of Web3 funds that were previously in CEXs, as well as a lot of incremental funds from Web2. There has even emerged Moonshot, a perfect fiat trading platform that connects Web2 and Web3 Memecoins in the last mile.

Perhaps it is precisely because of this "get-rich-quick" effect and the extremely low threshold for token issuance that many people are just "taking a bite and running." Many believe that investing in Memecoins has turned into a speculative behavior akin to "passing the parcel," with many Memecoin players thinking that the key to chasing memes is to "run fast."

This wealth effect has attracted many new on-chain users, while the market capitalization of most Memecoins is inflated. Some "hard-to-find angles" can trigger a lot of FOMO, quickly pushing up market caps, and when the market cap approaches $20 million, many early holders or project teams quickly cash out, causing a rapid return to zero. Many Memecoins with a "narrative angle" have gradually shown a "return to zero" pattern after a brief surge.

Interestingly, in Web3, a place where we traditionally perceive information transmission to be extremely fast, it takes a long time to reach consensus and realize value discovery. Many Memecoins that now seem to have emerged have gone through this process. For example, GOAT quickly reached a market cap of around $20 million after its token issuance, then rapidly fell back, and after spending a long time around $10 million, it was finally discovered for its value and continued to rise. Similarly, Ban reached a market cap of around $5 million after its token issuance, then fell over 80% amid PVP and group FUD, only to gather community consensus after more than 20 hours, quickly pushing its market cap up. The same goes for ACT and Pnut, which were "backstabbed by the project team."

Why do these Memecoins with narrative angles take so long for price discovery? Undoubtedly, this has a strong correlation with the deeply ingrained PVP logic. "Speculators" fear that early holders will "cash out and profit," leading to a rapid return to zero, and they remain trapped in the "PVP" logic.

However, everything has recently changed.

The "Crypto Gold" Memecoin Era

Trump's election as President of the United States marked the beginning of the "Crypto Gold" era.

This not only signifies that mainstream cryptocurrencies represented by Bitcoin have gained market recognition, with BTC ETFs receiving political backing, leading more U.S. stock investors to invest in the cryptocurrency market, but also represents a relaxation of cryptocurrency regulation in U.S. politics. The possibility of DeFi tokens being classified as "securities" and thus regulated has decreased, allowing meme coins to enter the investment horizon of U.S. investors.

CoinBase has included Pepe in its listing roadmap, Binance has launched ACT and Pnut, and with Elon Musk's repeated support for the squirrel Peanut on social media, calling for the establishment of a government efficiency department named after Doge coin, the influence of meme coins is rapidly expanding and being recognized. Undoubtedly, Elon Musk is a staunch supporter of meme coins, stating, "America is saved by a squirrel and meme coins."

As Murad once said, "We are at the beginning of the Meme SuperCycle." The average market cap of meme coins is also continuously rising. After CoinBase listed Pepe, its total market cap briefly exceeded $10 billion. After Binance listed Pnut and ACT, Pnut's market cap peaked at $2.5 billion and currently stands at $1.8 billion, while ACT's market cap is close to $1 billion, Goat's market cap is around $1 billion, and Doge's total market cap ranks in the Top 5. The market's recognition of meme coins is visibly increasing.

On November 13, Moonshot announced on its social platform that the platform's fiat inflow set a new record. "Non-crypto native users are flooding in."

The "Investment" Era of Memecoins

Binance is also making efforts to support the development of meme coins. The previous logic for listing meme coins on CEXs may have primarily focused on market cap, supplemented by so-called "Listing Fees." However, Binance's listing of ACT and Pnut signifies a new beginning for CEX support of meme coins.

The importance of meme coins is no longer just their market cap, but rather their community and narrative. After all, ACT, with a total market cap of $20 million, can still be listed on top CEXs, and after the announcement, it generated a significant wealth effect. Currently, ACT's market cap is $800 million, and individual investors can use information asymmetry to arbitrage over 10 times through purely manual methods.

This wealth effect not only reflects Binance's recognition and support for the memecoin industry but also points the way for the memecoin community. Communities with outstanding narratives and culture have a good chance of being listed on CEXs. We can also see from the recent projects launched on Binance that nearly half of the newly listed projects are memecoins, spreading memecoin culture through CEX channels and better developing memecoin culture.

For individual investors, the perspective on investing in memes has changed. It is no longer about rushing into the internal market PVP; meme coins lacking angles and narratives are no longer appealing. Some first-tier investors believe that this is more beneficial for the market, eliminating the need to "pan for gold in the muck," stuffing a bunch of coins that cannot launch into the internal market, consuming capital in PVP. Instead, the focus is now on angles and narratives, followed by community building and pushing projects onto exchanges. This returns to the essence of memecoins, rather than relying on "getting in early and running fast" to make money.

The market's imagination space for Memecoins has been opened up. The previous rapid profit-taking when market caps approached $20 million, leading to many stepping out and almost "returning to zero," has become less common. The market's dividing line for whether a coin is a "golden dog" was originally $20 million, with many "semi-golden dogs" falling at the $20 million threshold.

Now, Pepe is preparing to list on CoinBase with a market cap exceeding $10 billion, ACT has launched on Binance with a market cap exceeding $500 million, GOAT has a strong AI meme narrative platform behind it with a market cap exceeding $1 billion, and after Elon Musk's frequent support for Pnut, its market cap has surpassed $1.5 billion. The market is once again filled with expectations and aspirations for "big golden dogs" with market caps above $1 billion. The market is gradually understanding Murad's statement that "the direction of the Memecoin super cycle is for 7-8 Memecoins to become huge digital tribes valued at over $20 billion."

For developers issuing Memecoins, the pricing of Memecoin market caps has increased, reducing the tendency to "cash out after a wave" and increasing the focus on community building and cultural development, as well as improving the integration process with CEXs.

This is also good news for individual investors. Investing in memes feels more like an investment. Assessing angles and communities, finding early-stage memecoins with potential, and waiting for price discovery to list on CEXs targeting more Web3 groups or Moonshot's Web2 groups.

There are also many voices of "diamond hands" emerging in the market, with the market positioning the value of memecoins at billions or even tens of billions of dollars. Many people say, "Pnut is either going to $4 billion or back to zero; absolutely not selling in between!" The logic of PVP seems to have changed. Early internal market buyers of Pnut have already made over 210,000 times profit, gaining over $4 million in profit with a cost of 0.1 SOL, yet they remain steadfast in holding.

As of the time of writing, many "semi-golden dogs" that once had achievements but ultimately did not fully emerge, have seen significant increases in their market caps.

Many Memecoin projects that we once thought had "returned to zero" are being rediscovered for their value. Their value may be uncovered in the future with expectations of being "Listed on CEX." Many memecoins that truly represent a community culture are being issued, returning to the original cultural value of Memecoins. Behind them may be an AI agent, a new "internet celebrity animal," or an eagle that needs to be released.

As Murad said, "Memecoins are a test. Treating them as jokes and funny pictures is a failure. Understanding them as unstoppable tokenized communities is the true insight." We have already seen signs that the gears of the Meme SuperCycle are slowly beginning to turn, as meme culture moves beyond PVP and opens a new chapter.