Predicted Market Rising Star: What is Truemarkets that Attracted Vitalik to Mint 400 NFTs?
Author: Nan Zhi, Odaily Planet Daily
Last night around 7 PM, the VItalik address transferred 32 ETH to Base across chains and minted 400 NFTs named Oracle Patron. After gaining community attention, the minting speed surged. OpenSea data shows that after the minting was completed, the trading price quickly rose from a cost of 0.08 ETH to a peak of 0.25 ETH. As of the time of publication, the floor price still reached 0.232 ETH, an increase of nearly 200%, with a total market value of approximately 10.8 million USD.
(Note: The VItalik address is 0xd8dA6BF26964aF9D7eEd9e03E53415D37aA96045)
What project does the Oracle Patron NFT come from? What are its use cases or rights? Odaily Planet Daily will analyze this in this article.
Prediction Market Truemarkets
The issuer of the Oracle Patron NFT is Truemarkets, a binary prediction market whose trading mechanism is fundamentally similar to Polymarket. For each event, it simplifies the question to a yes or no answer and creates a corresponding binary trading market. The two answers are priced in real-time based on the odds perceived by the market, balanced by traders and market makers providing liquidity for YES and NO tokens. When the result is determined, the token corresponding to the correct answer can be redeemed for 1 USD, while the opposite token becomes worthless.
What’s Different?
Unlike Polymarket, which creates markets through proposal reviews, the current market creation on Truemarkets is limited to whitelisted addresses. In the official documentation, Truemarkets states that market creation will also be delegated to AI Agents and will achieve permissionless market creation by 2025, although the specific processes and methods have not yet been disclosed.
NFT and Token Use Cases
According to the official documentation, the current sole purpose of the Oracle Patron NFT is as proof of rights for the TRUE token airdrop, with each NFT allocated 2666.67 TRUE tokens, totaling 40.19 million tokens, which accounts for 40.19% of the total token supply. Therefore, based on the current market value of the NFT, the total market value of the tokens is estimated to be 25 million USD.
So what is the use of the tokens? According to the current official documentation, TRUE is used solely as a governance token, granting token holders the authority to control protocol fees, manage the oracle committee, and more. The oracle committee is responsible for managing market creation, incentive distribution, dispute resolution, and other affairs, but there has been no substantial incentive content related to the tokens.
How Are Prediction Markets Doing After the Elections?
The U.S. elections are undoubtedly key to supporting Polymarket and other prediction markets. After Trump's victory, DefiLlama data shows that the TVL of prediction markets dropped from a peak of 545 million USD to the current 134 million USD, remaining flat at this level for a week. In the TVL rankings, Polymarket leads with about 100 million USD, while the second place, Azuro, has only 7.8 million USD, showing a significant gap.
In terms of products, Polymarket has not updated for several days, with the current focus still on updating various markets. The top-ranked market is "How many basis points will the Fed cut in December?"
Similarly, Azuro has not had significant updates in products and mechanisms in recent months, focusing on expanding the market. At the end of October, Azuro launched special markets, allowing the creation of events outside the regular sports or political scope, with examples like "Will CZ return to Binance after being released from prison?" and "Will BTC hit a new high before December 2024?"
It can be seen that the prediction market mechanism has entered a relatively mature and stable stage, and how to discover and create betting topics that are "popular with the people" will be a key development focus for a considerable time in the future.