When will the bull market wind blow into the Bitcoin ecosystem?
The cycle of bull and bear markets in the Bitcoin ecosystem is 3 to 6 months, and we still believe that the wind will come.Author: Golem, Odaily Planet Daily
The Bitcoin ecosystem was once considered one of the most promising ecosystems in this bull market, with a total market value expected to reach the scale of tens of billions of dollars.
However, since the end of the inscription craze from late 2023 to early 2024, the Bitcoin ecosystem has slowly entered a bear market, with a sharp decline in new users and funds. Although subsequent projects like Rune, the 5-character BRC-20 token pizza, the Fractal ecosystem, and CAT-20 have provided some lifelines to the Bitcoin ecosystem and attracted attention, their scale has never matched the previous heat of the entire network's inscriptions.
On one hand, Bitcoin's price continues to rise and set new highs, with $100,000 seemingly within reach; on the other hand, the gradual prosperity of the Solana ecosystem and other ecosystems (such as Base, Sui, etc.). When will the winds of the bull market blow towards the Bitcoin ecosystem? Odaily Planet Daily will outline some clues in this article regarding the potential resurgence of the Bitcoin ecosystem.
Major Exchanges Support the Development of the Bitcoin Ecosystem
Support from major centralized exchanges is crucial for the ecosystem, as it means significant traffic, new funds, and potential development resources. Recently, users have primarily focused on which Solana memes Binance will list, but in reality, Binance has been consistently supporting the development of the Bitcoin ecosystem.
During the last inscription bull market, Binance actively listed BRC-20 tokens ORDI, SATS spot trading, and RATS contract trading. Subsequently, other excellent asset protocols such as Rune, Atomical, and CAT-20 emerged in the Bitcoin ecosystem, all of which are expected to receive support from Binance.
Especially yesterday (November 18), Binance Pool announced support for Fractal Bitcoin (FB) joint mining, with the token FB surging over 80% shortly after the announcement. Although Binance noted in the announcement that "the launch of Fractal Bitcoin (FB) mining services on Binance Pool does not guarantee that the token will be listed on Binance.com," this is still a positive signal for the struggling Bitcoin ecosystem and Fractal.
In addition to Binance, OKX has also been supporting the development of the Bitcoin ecosystem. Whether it's BRC-20, Atomical, Runes, or the recent Fractal and CAT-20 ecosystems, OKX Wallet has been continuously updating to enhance user experience within the Bitcoin ecosystem. Besides UniSat, OKX Wallet has also become the most widely used wallet in the Bitcoin ecosystem.
Since November, OKX's Chinese official Twitter has frequently mentioned the Bitcoin ecosystem. On November 11, when Bitcoin set a new historical high, OKX posted about "the BTC ecosystem also thriving," with images covering almost all tracks and protocols of the Bitcoin ecosystem.
On November 12, OKX's Chinese official Twitter again posted about the Bitcoin ecosystem, featuring BRC-20, Runes, CAT-20, and Fractal, which are the four protocols/segments with relatively high enthusiasm and discussion within the Bitcoin ecosystem community.
According to OKX's latest announcement, it will officially launch DOGUSDT perpetual contracts and open trading on November 19, 2024, at 2:00 PM (UTC+8). (Odaily Note: DOG is a fully open-source, community-driven meme coin based on the Bitcoin rune standard.)
Runes Surpass BRC-20 to Become the Leading Asset Protocol in the BTC Ecosystem
Previously, the Bitcoin ecosystem was still in the early exploration stage, with developers actively conducting various experiments on the Bitcoin network, leading to the emergence of various asset protocols. Actively exploring the possibilities of the Bitcoin ecosystem is a good thing in itself, but it also has "side effects," as existing asset protocols may operate independently, dispersing community consensus and funds within the Bitcoin ecosystem, which is not conducive to forming a collective force.
However, this situation is beginning to change, as Runes are becoming the largest consensus for asset issuance protocols in the Bitcoin ecosystem, even surpassing the "big brother" BRC-20. From the data, since the official release of the Runes protocol in April this year, Runes trading has long occupied over 50% of the share on the Bitcoin chain, followed by regular Bitcoin transfer transactions or transactions of other asset protocols (some asset protocol transactions are not recognized), while the trading share of BRC-20 and Ordinals has shrunk to less than 10%.
Data source: https://geniidata.com/user/orddata/bitcoin-protocols-analysis
Compared to other asset protocols, Runes currently have the best community activity and hot money-making effect in the Bitcoin ecosystem.
As the heat of the ecosystem fades and asset prices decline, many communities within the Bitcoin ecosystem have gradually "declined." However, in Runes, communities such as DOG•GO•TO•THE•MOON, PUPS•WORLD•PEACE, BILLION·DOLLAR·CAT, and RSIC·GENESIS·RUNE are still active, and other high-quality communities like MEMENTO·MORI and GIZMO•IMAGINARY•KITTEN continue to emerge.
Although there are situations of PVP and "gas arbitrage," Runes remain the asset protocol in the Bitcoin ecosystem that continuously generates hotspots and has some hot money-making effects. The AI Meme boom in the Solana ecosystem naturally drives up the heat of other ecosystems' AI Memes. Among the many asset protocols in the Bitcoin ecosystem, only Runes have captured this wave of heat and brought about wealth effects, with the current leading project in the Runes AI track, CYPHER•GENESIS, having a market cap exceeding $30 million. (Recommended reading: November 15 and November 18 Odaily editorial team's complete record of Meme operations)
Last night, the new Rune MILO•THE•MILLIONAIRE•GATOR completed its etching, and I personally tested minting a set (25 pieces) at a cost of about 60 USDT. Due to the project's deployer having some connection with the largest IP puppet in the Bitcoin ecosystem, the market price for a set on Magic Eden has already risen to around 118 USDT today.
Although in terms of market capitalization, the current total market cap of Runes is $1.91 billion, still less than BRC-20's total market cap of over $3 billion. However, as the Bitcoin ecosystem gradually warms up, the total market cap of Runes is also climbing, and surpassing BRC-20 is just a matter of time.
Data source: Geniidata
Today, OKX announced the launch of DOG•GO•TO•THE•MOON, which also represents the recognition of Runes by major exchanges. If one had to guess which Bitcoin ecosystem asset will be listed on Binance first, the leading assets within Runes are the most likely candidates.
Of course, there are also other very high-quality asset protocols and ecosystem segments in this round of the Bitcoin ecosystem, such as the Lightning Network, Fractal, CAT 20, and the Bitcoin staking and re-staking narrative led by Babylon. However, at this stage, the ecosystem should focus on uniting efforts to push the Bitcoin ecosystem back into the spotlight. Only in this way can other high-quality assets and narratives attract more attention.
Waiting for the Wind
Once the decision to buy is made, everything else is left to time.
- The first bull market of the Bitcoin ecosystem occurred from June to July 2023, when the small images of Ordinals and the new asset issuance method represented by BRC-20 attracted people's attention;
- The second bull market of the Bitcoin ecosystem occurred six months later, from November 2023 to February 2024, when some BRC-20 tokens were listed on major exchanges and the inscription gameplay was replicated across all chains, leading to many overnight wealth stories, similar to the current Meme trend;
- The third small bull market of the Bitcoin ecosystem occurred in April 2024 when the Runes protocol was officially launched, lasting about a month.
Based on past experience, the cycle of bull and bear markets in the Bitcoin ecosystem is 3 to 6 months. Now, it has been half a year since the last bull market, and although there have been some ecosystem hot projects that attracted short-term attention during this period, there has not been a large-scale effect. At the end of June this year, Odaily Planet Daily published an analysis suggesting that a bull market for the Bitcoin ecosystem might be approaching. A few months have passed, and we still believe that the wind will come.
