$CHAMP token launch price prediction

Author: Da Chengian | Shrapnel

$CHAMP Token Launch Price Prediction + Trading Plan

$CHAMP token will be launched on the decentralized exchange @AerodromeFi this Wednesday, the 20th, at 3:00 PM. Below is my personal prediction for the token price and my trading plan (DYOR).

First, the conclusion: Buy small below 0.05, buy large below 0.03, do not sell before breaking 0.1, aim for 0.2.

1. First, why I won't sell before breaking 0.1:

Referencing other chain game projects that launched tokens this year

CHAMP raised 30 million, and based on the average market cap/funding of the above projects, the theoretical market cap of CHAMP is 238 million, with a total token supply of 1 billion, so the theoretical token price is 0.238. However, whether it can actually reach 0.238 is unknown; I wish all CHAMP holders can wait for 0.238 and prosper together!

But I will not sell below 0.1; I will consider selling only after it breaks 0.1.

Additionally, the CHAMP project team chose to launch on DEX first, which is also a reason why I won't sell early. Each subsequent CEX listing will be a positive factor that boosts the token price. Moreover, CHAMP's investor lineup includes OKX Venture, Coinbase, and KuCoin. It is relatively difficult to list on OKX (many projects backed by OKX Venture have not listed on OKX), but I estimate that the other two will list after some time.

Why buy small below 0.05

0.05 is the price given to their NFT holders for pre-sale on the Lizlabs platform in September, and I speculate it is also the price for some KOLs. If the price falls below 0.05, optimistic investors will likely start to buy the dip.

Why buy large below 0.03

If the token price is at 0.03, the market cap would be 30 million, which is also the total funding amount for SuperChamps. In my experience, for a legitimate web3 project, if the market cap equals the funding amount, the price is significantly undervalued.

The last project like this was Big Time (which also used a Fair Launch model like CHAMP). On its first day of listing last October, due to a large number of users selling the tokens received from airdrops, the price dropped to a low of 0.014, with a market cap of 70 million. Previously, Big Time raised 90 million through VC funding and NFT sales. Then the token price began to surge: within a week, it rose from 0.014 to 0.3, and by December, the price approached 1 dollar.

Sharing my views on the project team's shift from a VC model to a Fair Launch model:

Support + Expectation!

Because most VC tokens in this round peaked immediately upon launch, with continuous selling pressure from investors + the overall weakness of altcoins, leading many tokens to drop over 90%. Community players who initially believed in the project and bought tokens hoping to hold long ended up losing a lot. Retail investors lost money, and the project team also lost users.

From this perspective, SuperChamps' decision to unlock all investors' shares at the time of the token launch is correct, as it mitigates potential selling pressure. This way, the token has a better chance of increasing in value over the long term. Meanwhile, the team's share will still follow the original plan: locked for six months, unlocked over two years. This indicates that the project team clearly intends to develop long-term.

Lastly, it is worth mentioning that SuperChamps has always been the project with the highest user count on the Base chain (excluding multi-chain supporting DEXs like Uniswap). If Trump indeed promotes the development of blockchain business in the U.S. after taking office, Coinbase will likely benefit, and Base and SuperChamps will benefit together. The future looks bright!

Conclusion: I didn't buy enough of last year's Big Time; will CHAMP give another opportunity this year?