The Great God said: On November 13, Trump may reduce the number of interest rate cuts after taking office! Bitcoin failed to break through the 90,000 mark!
Due to the potential new economic policies that may come with Trump's leadership, the Fed may not lower interest rates as many times next year as the market previously expected in September.Thanks to Trump's victory in the U.S. presidential election, the cryptocurrency market has recently experienced a wave of celebration, with Bitcoin soaring since November 5, breaking historical highs multiple times and surpassing the $90,000 mark yesterday. In addition to Trump's election potentially bringing a more lenient regulatory environment for the cryptocurrency industry, another major catalyst for this bull market is the interest rate cut cycle initiated by the Federal Reserve at the end of September. However, due to the possibility of new economic policies under Trump, the number of rate cuts by the Fed next year may not be as many as the market previously anticipated in September. Next year, the pace of rate cuts will be influenced by Trump's fiscal policies.
** This is not good news for the safe-haven asset market, as the market's expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in December has significantly dropped from 84.4% a month ago to 55.2%. The probability of the Fed pausing rate cuts in December and maintaining the interest rate in the 4.75%-5% range has risen from 15% a month ago to 44.8%.**
** In terms of cryptocurrency, Bitcoin faced a setback around 8 PM last night, dropping to a low of $85,112. However, it quickly rebounded to challenge the $90,000 mark, but unfortunately fell back after failing to break through, and as of the time of writing, it is quoted at $87,436, down 1.94% in the last 24 hours.**
** Bitcoin Daily Chart**
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** First, according to the Bollinger Bands indicator on the Bitcoin daily chart, the current price of Bitcoin has broken through the upper band and is running above it, which is a clear sign of overbought conditions. When the price breaks above the upper band and continues to hover near it, it indicates a strong upward trend, but one must also be cautious of potential pullbacks at any time. If the price continues to run along the upper band, it may maintain an upward trend. If the price falls back within the upper band, it may undergo a short-term adjustment or pullback.**
** Second, according to the KDJ indicator on the Bitcoin daily chart, the KDJ three-line values are already in the high overbought area, indicating that there is a risk of overheating in the current market, and a pullback may occur in the short term. If the KDJ three-line values form a death cross at high levels, the likelihood of a pullback will increase.**
** Finally, according to the MACD indicator on the Bitcoin daily chart, the DIF line is above the DEA line and is running above the zero axis, forming a bullish pattern, indicating that the market's upward momentum remains strong and may continue to maintain an upward trend in the short term. Additionally, the MACD red histogram is also continuously lengthening, confirming the bullish trend. However, the MACD indicator has reached a high position, and one should be cautious of the risk of a pullback.**
** Bitcoin Four-Hour Chart**
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** First, according to the Bollinger Bands indicator on the Bitcoin 4H chart, the current Bollinger Bands are widely open, and although the price has retreated from the upper band, it is still running between the middle and upper bands. If the price continues to fall and breaks below the middle band, the risk of a short-term pullback will increase, potentially reaching the support of the lower band. The middle band serves as a short-term support point; if it can rebound from here, the bulls will still have the advantage; otherwise, it may continue to decline.**
** Second, according to the KDJ indicator on the Bitcoin 4H chart, both the K line and D line values are at high levels and show a downward trend, indicating that the market is in an adjustment phase after being overbought in the short term. If the K line and D line values form a death cross downward, it may further push the price down. The KDJ three-line values have already pulled back from high levels, and the upward momentum in the short term is insufficient, increasing the likelihood of a pullback.**
** Finally, according to the MACD indicator on the Bitcoin 4H chart, the current DIF line has crossed down through the DEA line at the zero axis, forming a death cross. Additionally, the MACD red histogram has turned from red to green, indicating that bullish strength is gradually weakening, which significantly increases the downward pressure in the short term.**
** In summary, based on the Bitcoin daily chart, Bitcoin still shows a strong upward trend, but multiple indicators have entered the overbought range, indicating potential pullback risks in the short term. Based on the Bitcoin 4H chart, there are clear signals of adjustment. The bullish momentum of the MACD is weakening, the KDJ indicator is pulling back from high levels, and the pressure from the upper Bollinger Band is also evident. If the KDJ forms a death cross subsequently and the MACD continues to weaken, Bitcoin may continue to pull back. The area near the middle band of the Bollinger Band can serve as a short-term support level; if the price finds support here and does not break, it may rise again; if the middle band is lost, it may seek support at the lower band.**
** In conclusion, the following suggestions are provided for reference**
** Suggestion 1: Short Bitcoin near 87,800, targeting 86,000-85,200, with a stop loss at 88,300.**
** Suggestion 2: Long Bitcoin near 85,200, targeting 88,000-89,000, with a stop loss at 84,600.**
** Writing time: (2024-11-13, 17:15)**
** (Article by: Daxian Says Coin)**
