Keywords:

1. Historical patterns and halving cycles

2. Market sentiment: bullish, conservative, skeptical?

3. Factors that may accelerate Bitcoin's rise

4. When can Bitcoin reach 100,000?

Author: 636Marx

The last Bitcoin halving occurred in May 2020, and the last bull market peak was in November 2021, marking a complete halving bull market cycle with an interval of 520 days. This April, Bitcoin will undergo its fourth halving. If we calculate based on the historical bull market cycle of 520 days, we can speculate that September 2025 will be the peak of this bull market cycle.

The above inference is based on the classic economic cycle analysis of recovery ------ prosperity ------ recession ------ and depression from the book "Technical Analysis of the Futures Markets." Whether Bitcoin will break through the 100,000 USD mark, equivalent to about 710,000 RMB at the current OTC exchange rate, and when it will break through is a topic filled with speculation but lacking certainty. Currently, the Bitcoin price has surpassed its historical high of 76,849 USD, influenced by various factors including economic conditions, investor sentiment, and the cyclical patterns of the crypto market.

Follow me as we explore which factors may influence Bitcoin's journey to six figures.

1. Historical patterns and halving cycles

The "halving cycle," which occurs every four years, is one of the most frequently cited predictive factors for Bitcoin's price movements. This event roughly halves the rewards for Bitcoin miners every four years, limiting the creation of new Bitcoins. Historically, this has led to price increases due to changes in supply and demand dynamics. Bitcoin's cycles typically peak 18 to 24 months after a halving. Since the most recent halving occurred in 2024, if historical patterns hold, a peak around 100,000 USD could be expected by the end of 2024 or in 2025.

Institutional investment and ETF effects

The increasing adoption of Bitcoin by institutions may further support its price trajectory. For example, BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF saw a record inflow of 1.1 billion USD on November 7. This trend is significant as institutional investors bring substantial capital and legitimacy to Bitcoin, potentially accelerating its price growth. As financial institutions position Bitcoin as a long-term alternative to traditional assets, demand could surge, pushing it towards 100,000 USD.

Market sentiment and economic background

Global economic uncertainty and inflation have increased Bitcoin's value. During economic turmoil, Bitcoin is often favored as an alternative "store of value," similar to gold. An analysis by Goldman Sachs suggests that if Bitcoin could capture half of the gold market share, it could drive Bitcoin's value above 100,000 USD, especially in a context where traditional markets remain unstable.

2. Market sentiment: bullish, conservative, skeptical?

Predictions regarding the timeline for Bitcoin to reach 100,000 USD vary widely:

Bullish scenario

Some market forecasts suggest that Bitcoin will reach 100,000 USD within 12 to 18 months, driven by strong halving cycle effects and increased institutional interest. This optimistic prediction is supported by historical price patterns, particularly the trend of Bitcoin doubling or tripling within a year following halving events.

Conservative scenario

More cautious market views suggest that Bitcoin may reach 100,000 USD, but only under certain conditions—such as improved regulatory clarity or sustained inflation. This perspective acknowledges Bitcoin's potential while recognizing that market volatility and regulatory hurdles may slow its progress.

Skeptical scenario

A minority of skeptics believe that Bitcoin's price is inherently unstable and that even if it briefly reaches this milestone, it may not maintain a six-figure valuation in the long term. Their caution stems from market volatility, regulatory pressures, or significant declines due to shifts in market sentiment.

3. Factors that may accelerate Bitcoin's rise

Global economic instability

Economic recessions, currency devaluation, and rising inflation may prompt more investors to view Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset, potentially driving its price up more quickly.

Surge in institutional investment

If more major financial institutions invest heavily in Bitcoin or launch more digital currency products, it could further legitimize Bitcoin in mainstream finance, making 100,000 USD a more achievable short-term target.

Technological advancements

Improvements to the Bitcoin network or the development of related technologies like the Lightning Network could enhance Bitcoin's utility as a medium of exchange and store of value, making it more attractive.

4. When I think Bitcoin can reach 100,000

Bitcoin's rise is not without potential obstacles, as many countries are beginning to actively address the classification and regulation of digital currencies. Additionally, market volatility remains a significant factor; Bitcoin has experienced substantial price fluctuations in the past, even during bull markets.

I believe that while reaching 100,000 USD is possible, Bitcoin's ascent depends on a combination of historical patterns, market demand, institutional interest, and macroeconomic factors. Whether Bitcoin can achieve this goal by the end of 2024 or will take longer remains to be seen, but dollar-cost averaging is a good strategy. However, current trends suggest that if these supportive factors remain consistent, we will definitely see six-figure Bitcoin before the next halving.