Analysis: A 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve this week is still a high probability event

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, analysts believe that considering the previous statement by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, a reasonable rate of interest rate cuts should be 25 basis points. Coupled with the relatively stable economic data performance over the past two months, although the October non-farm payrolls weakened significantly, it was largely affected by one-off factors. Therefore, a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve this week remains a high probability event, rather than a further 50 basis point cut or no cut at all.

Currently, the market has basically priced in a 25 basis point rate cut in November, with a probability of 97.6%, while the probability of another 25 basis point cut in December is 68.4%. Currently, the main institutions' analysis views on rate cuts are:

• Goldman Sachs: A continuous cut of 25 basis points is needed;
• JPMorgan Chase: Rate cuts still hold up;
• Deutsche Bank: The election will not affect the Federal Reserve's decision this week.