QCP: A large number of $75,000 call options were observed being bought at the end of November, while the market remains cautious

2024-11-04 18:02:07

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ChainCatcher news, QCP released a daily analysis stating that the election battle between Harris and Trump is in a deadlock, with Polymarket's odds gradually approaching actual polling estimates. Currently, Polymarket still favors Trump, giving him a 55% chance of winning, but this is a significant drop from 66% a week ago.

The weekend's sideways price movement and the decline of leveraged perpetual contract positions from $30 billion to $26 billion indicate that the market remains cautious. The options market has observed a large number of purchases for $75,000 call options expiring at the end of November since last Friday. As the election date approaches, related options positions are also increasing, with implied volatility exceeding 87 on Friday, even though the actual volatility is only 40.

Spot prices are expected to fluctuate within this range until the election results become clearer this week. If Trump wins, it may trigger a rapid price increase; conversely, if Kamala wins, the market may decline.

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