Bitcoin's rally takes a breather, waiting for more macro data
Net outflow from the exchange indicates an increased willingness to hold for the long term.Author: BitpushNews
On October 30, the financial markets showed mixed performance. Spot gold reached a new historical high, while Bitcoin entered a consolidation phase after approaching its historical peak the previous day.
In the U.S. stock market, the S&P 500 index, Dow Jones index, and Nasdaq index all closed lower, down 0.33%, 0.22%, and 0.56% respectively.
Macroeconomic data was a mixed bag: the U.S. GDP growth rate for the third quarter slowed to 2.8%, below the expected 3%. However, the labor market performed better than expected, indicating strong economic fundamentals.
The latest data did not change the market's expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut at the November FOMC meeting, but investors chose to remain cautious ahead of key data releases such as the September monthly PCE index and employment report.
Although BTC has seen a short-term pullback, various factors including the derivatives market, on-chain data, and the macroeconomic environment indicate that the long-term upward trend of Bitcoin remains intact.
Derivatives Market: Strong Demand Supports High Premiums
Data from laevitas.ch shows that the annualized premium for Bitcoin futures contracts currently stands at 13%, far exceeding neutral market levels. This indicates a strong bullish sentiment in the market regarding future Bitcoin prices, with investors willing to pay a higher premium for longer holding periods.
The options market also remains active, reflecting investors' heightened attention to future price volatility. The combination of high premiums and an active options market suggests a long-term bullish outlook for Bitcoin.
On-Chain Data: Net Outflows from Exchanges Indicate Increased Long-Term Holding Willingness
On-chain data shows an increase in net outflows of Bitcoin from exchanges, indicating that investors are transferring Bitcoin to cold wallets for long-term holding. This further supports the market's long-term bullish sentiment towards Bitcoin.
Glassnode's chart of the 6-hour average net transfer volume from exchanges shows that although there was a brief increase in deposits after BTC broke through $70,000, it subsequently turned into net outflows, indicating that investors are locking in profits and preparing for future increases.
From a technical perspective, TradingView analyst Arman Shaban believes that once Bitcoin breaks its historical high, its price could rise to $77,000 or even higher.
He stated, "By analyzing the Bitcoin chart on a weekly timeframe, we can see that Bitcoin has risen over 10% since the last analysis, climbing from $66,500 to $73,600, now just $100 away from the historical peak. After that, Bitcoin slightly retraced to $72,000, and I still expect the previous high to be broken soon, with Bitcoin reaching higher levels. The next bullish targets are $77,000, $81,700, and $93,800."
Technical analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated on the X platform that $86,200 is an important technical level for Bitcoin in the current cycle. By conducting an in-depth study of short-term holder data, he found that this price level represents the upper limit of current market risk appetite.
Adler remarked, "At the $86,200 level, the fate of the bull market will be determined. If the price breaks through this point and forms strong bullish momentum, we will eventually see the trend that everyone has been waiting for."
