Crypto Morning Report: TIA, OP, SUI and other tokens will see large unlocks this week, and the US election may trigger significant market volatility
The election may trigger significant market volatility, with delayed vote counting being a key risk factor.Author: Deep Tide TechFlow
Yesterday's Market Dynamics
Data: TIA, OP , SUI and other tokens will see large unlocks this week, with TIA's unlock scale reaching 900 million USD
According to data from Tokenomist.ai, several tokens will experience large unlocks this week. Among them:
Celestia (TIA) will unlock approximately 176 million tokens on October 30 at 20:00, accounting for 80.13% of the current circulating supply, valued at about 900 million USD.
Optimism (OP) will unlock approximately 31.34 million tokens on October 31 at 8:00, accounting for 2.50% of the circulating supply, valued at about 50.15 million USD;
Sui (SUI) will unlock approximately 64.2 million tokens on November 1 at 8:00, accounting for 2.32% of the circulating supply, valued at about 112 million USD;
Immutable (IMX) will unlock approximately 32.47 million tokens on November 1 at 8:00, accounting for 1.98% of the circulating supply, valued at about 43.52 million USD;
ZetaChain (ZETA) will unlock approximately 53.89 million tokens on November 1, accounting for 11.72% of the circulating supply, valued at about 36.60 million USD;
Tribal Token (TRIBL) will unlock approximately 22.07 million tokens on October 31, accounting for 19.06% of the circulating supply, valued at about 13.40 million USD;
Cardano (ADA) and dydx (DYDX) will also unlock tokens valued at 6.20 million USD and 8.10 million USD, respectively.
Morgan Stanley: The election may trigger significant market volatility, with ballot counting delays as a key risk factor
Morgan Stanley analysts Monica Guerra and Daniel Kohen pointed out in their latest research report that the 2024 U.S. presidential election could lead to significant market volatility, with the main risks stemming from ballot counting delays, economic uncertainty, and changes in voter sentiment. The analysts emphasized that while political outcomes and corresponding policy changes may affect corporate earnings, business and economic cycles are the key factors influencing market performance.
The report specifically warns that the tight race in key swing states and the uncertainty of mail-in ballot counting times could result in final outcomes taking days or even weeks to determine. Additionally, unexpected political events such as an "October surprise" could influence the election dynamics during the final stretch. Analysts suggest that investors should focus on long-term strategies and avoid overreacting to market volatility caused by the election.
Moonshot to launch AI agent concept tokens ai16z and LUNA
On October 27, according to monitoring by Moonshot Listings, Moonshot will launch AI agent concept tokens ai16z and LUNA.
DEX's share of spot trading volume relative to CEX hits a new high since May 2023, reaching 14.12%
On October 28, data from The Block and DefiLlama showed that in October, the share of spot trading volume on decentralized exchanges (DEX) relative to centralized exchanges (CEX) reached 14.12%, marking a new high since May 2023.
This data illustrates the percentage comparison of monthly DEX trading volume to CEX trading volume, excluding the impact of flash loan transactions, which are trades executed quickly after borrowing large amounts and immediately repaid, to ensure data authenticity.
Vitalik: The Ethereum Foundation does not stake ETH to avoid stance controversies during hard forks
Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin responded on social media to questions regarding the Ethereum Foundation (EF) not staking ETH. In response to community inquiries about "why the Ethereum Foundation does not stake its ETH holdings and only uses income to cover costs," Vitalik stated in a tweet that the main reason for avoiding staking is to prevent being forced to make an "official choice" during controversial hard forks.
Vitalik revealed that EF is considering a new grant model: allowing recipients to stake the Foundation's ETH and earn returns, providing some subsidies in the form of "you can stake our ETH, you can choose how to stake it, as long as it is ethical and maintains upside potential." He also pointed out that diversifying the legitimacy and resources of the Ethereum ecosystem is one of the solutions, noting that there are already several organizations considered trustworthy representatives in the ecosystem, showing significant improvement compared to two years ago.
In response to questions about the Foundation's regular sales of ETH, Vitalik emphasized that EF's expenditures are primarily used to support researchers and developers.
Coinbase launches Based Agent, enabling the creation of AI agents with crypto wallet functionality
Cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase launched a new tool called "Based Agent" on October 26. This tool allows users to create AI agents with crypto wallet functionality in just three minutes, capable of executing on-chain transactions, token swaps, and staking among other tasks. Coinbase developer Lincoln Murr stated that the template is developed based on the Coinbase SDK, OpenAI, and Replit platforms, requiring users to have API keys from the Coinbase developer program and OpenAI to use it.
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong has been actively promoting the application of AI agents in the crypto space. On October 23, he publicly provided an independent crypto wallet for the AI chatbot Truth Terminal. Additionally, Mode Network founder James Ross predicts that by April 2025, over 80% of blockchain transactions may be executed by AI agents.
Willy Woo: The current altcoin cycle is dominated by meme coins, and retail investors may have understood the nature of the insider game
Cryptocurrency analyst Willy Woo posted on social media X that after studying the performance of over 10,000 altcoins, he found that the current cryptocurrency market is experiencing its third significant cycle since 2017, and this cycle exhibits completely different characteristics from previous ones. The first cycle began in 2017 when altcoins first entered the mainstream, leading to significant losses for many retail investors. The second cycle occurred between 2020 and 2021, driven by the "innovation wave" of DeFi and NFTs, again resulting in massive losses for retail investors.
The current third cycle is dominated by meme coins. "Unlike the previous two cycles, meme coins do not disguise themselves as disruptive world-class technologies but openly showcase their speculative nature," Woo noted, "This may indicate that retail investors are finally beginning to understand the risks involved, as people typically need three lessons to truly learn from experience."
Regarding Bitcoin's dominance, Woo believes the market is still searching for long-term equilibrium. He stated that while small and mid-cap altcoins may still see price increases after Bitcoin's price rises, the intensity of this "altcoin season" may weaken with each cycle. He particularly cautioned investors that the market cap calculation for altcoins can be misleading, as this metric only reflects the sum of successful projects while excluding failed ones.
For investment advice, Woo warned investors never to hold altcoins unless they fully understand the insider situation. "If you want to participate in trading, you can, but unless you truly understand the inner workings, never hold altcoins long-term. This is essentially an insider's game, just like a casino, where the house always wins in the end."
Magic Eden: Test token TestME will be available for claiming from October 29 to 31
NFT trading platform Magic Eden announced that it will open the claiming of the test token TestME from October 29 to 31. Although this test token has no monetary value, it will serve as an important part of the process for users to familiarize themselves with the ME token claiming process. Claiming eligibility will exclude users from the U.S. and the U.K., and eligible users must complete the claiming through the Magic Eden mobile wallet.
The platform emphasizes that the claiming eligibility for TestME is not equivalent to the eligibility for the official ME token and urges users to be cautious of fake claiming links, strictly participating through official channels. Users can obtain the unique claiming entry through the official X account of the Magic Eden Foundation, and TestME holders are not required to retain the test tokens, with the platform also clearly stating that it does not encourage any trading activities.
Standard Chartered: Bitcoin may rise to 73,000 USD on election day, and if the Republicans win, it could reach 125,000 USD by year-end
According to Bitcoin.com News, Geoff Kendrick, the global head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered, stated in a recent report that Bitcoin's price is expected to reach 73,000 USD on November 5, 2024, the day of the U.S. election. The report further analyzes that if Trump wins, Bitcoin's price may rise by 4% after the election results are clear, with a cumulative increase of up to 10% within a few days.
The research team indicated that if the Republicans achieve a landslide victory in the congressional elections, Bitcoin could reach 125,000 USD by year-end. In contrast, if Harris is elected president, Bitcoin may experience a short-term pullback, but it is expected to still reach a new high of 75,000 USD by the end of 2024. This prediction is based on daily BTC volatility levels and mainstream options strike price analysis.
Market Dynamics
