Standard Chartered Bank: Whether Trump wins the election determines the rise of the dollar

2024-10-24 17:58:39

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ChainCatcher news, Standard Chartered Bank estimates that the 60% appreciation of the dollar in October is related to increased bets that Trump will win the election on November 5.

The dollar index has risen more than 3% this month, poised to achieve its best monthly performance since 2022. Many analysts indicate that Trump's election as president would boost the dollar, given the prospect of high tariffs and the ensuing market volatility, which often favors safe-haven assets.

Steven Englander, Global Head of G10 FX Research at Standard Chartered Bank, stated that the dollar is strengthening as the likelihood of a Trump victory increases. This has a greater impact on foreign exchange than on fixed income.

Englander estimates that the market expects the probability of a Trump victory to be close to 70%. If this probability is confirmed and Congress becomes divided, there will be room for profit-taking in the market. If the Republican Party gains control of both the House and Senate, it could impact the market.

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