Is there still a counterfeit season in 2024? What investment opportunities are available now?

In this round of the bull market, the long-awaited "altcoin season" seems to have stirred recently. From APE to DYDX and SUSHI, many altcoins have seen significant increases. Is this a genuine return of the bull market, or are altcoins seizing the opportunity to release good news and then offload? Why has the "altcoin season" pattern, which used to be inevitable in the crypto market, not worked this year?

How Did Previous Altcoin Seasons Come About?

In past bull markets, the arrival of altcoin seasons seemed to be a natural phenomenon. When the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum rose, investors would gain sufficient profits from mainstream coins, and funds would gradually overflow into the altcoin market, which is more volatile but potentially offers higher returns. Thus, under this influx of capital, altcoins began to rise in succession, forming a unique "altcoin season" trend.

However, in 2024, this pattern seems to have broken down. Bitcoin's price soared from $26,000 to $70,000 due to the halving event and the catalyst of ETFs, and mainstream funds have already reaped substantial profits. Logically, this should be the time for altcoins to shine, but the reality has been disappointing. Many investors who anticipated a repeat of historical trends have been deeply trapped, suffering significant losses. This year, there are very few altcoins that have outperformed Bitcoin, and selecting the right altcoin feels like searching for a needle in a haystack.

Why Is There No Altcoin Season in 2024?

In the past, altcoin seasons were a "natural phenomenon," but why are they absent this year? This is the result of multiple intertwined factors.

First is the lack of new narratives. Behind every bull market, there is a strong narrative driving it. For example, 2017 was characterized by the initial coin offering boom, while 2021 was supported by emerging concepts like DeFi, NFTs, and GameFi. However, this year, many new projects in the crypto space are essentially old wine in new bottles, repeating past ideas without enough compelling new narratives to attract capital and drive significant market movements.

Secondly, there is token dilution. This round has seen a large number of high-market-cap, low-circulation tokens launched, with data showing that the average circulation rate of these projects is only 14%, and about $90 billion worth of tokens are waiting to be unlocked. When project saturation combines with an oversupply of tokens, it becomes difficult for an altcoin season to sustain itself.

Another important factor is that the emergence of Bitcoin spot ETFs has changed the flow of funds. Previously, most investors accessed Bitcoin through centralized exchanges (CEX), and these investors often tried altcoins, boosting the altcoin market. However, the approval of ETFs has attracted a large amount of institutional capital, which is only interested in Bitcoin. This structural change in institutional funding has weakened the market demand for altcoins, breaking the traditional flow of capital.

Additionally, macroeconomic uncertainty has intensified the market's conservative sentiment. The global economic outlook is worrisome, and investors are more cautious in this environment. Altcoins, due to their higher volatility and risk, appear particularly weak in this risk-averse atmosphere.

What Should Be the Next Steps?

The direction of the crypto market is full of uncertainty. If interest rate cuts stabilize the economy, investors' risk appetite may rebound, potentially challenging Bitcoin's market dominance, and funds may flow more freely into other quality assets, including some promising altcoins. However, if recession fears continue to escalate, Bitcoin's status as a safe-haven asset will further solidify, maintaining its high market dominance.

Regardless of the scenario, one undeniable fact is that the differentiation among altcoins will increasingly intensify. Quality projects will stand out due to their unique technological advantages, application scenarios, and market potential, while inferior projects may struggle and gradually be eliminated from the market.

In such a complex and volatile market environment, blind operations will undoubtedly increase investment risks significantly. For ordinary investors, it is unnecessary to limit themselves to altcoin opportunities; they might consider looking towards more stable products to seek certainty amid uncertainty. For example, 4E Wealth Management offers financial products with an annualized yield of up to 5.5% on USDT, allowing for flexible combinations of current and fixed-term investments, ensuring funds are not idle while waiting for market changes.

Of course, diversified asset allocation helps to mitigate the volatility risks of a single market and allows for a focus on investment opportunities in other areas during this period of uncertainty. For instance, 4E also supports asset classes such as stocks, indices, foreign exchange, and gold in traditional financial markets, providing a one-stop trading experience with U-based transactions and offering more stable growth opportunities.

In summary, whether the altcoin season of 2024 will arrive remains uncertain. Against the backdrop of the ever-evolving crypto market, market rules are no longer as reliable as they once were. In the face of a complex and changing market, investors should remain cautious, reasonably diversify risks, and not rely solely on past experiences, but instead seek stable growth opportunities through diversified investments.