Scroll airdrop allocation sparks controversy: How does the high quota of Binance Launchpool affect SCR price?
Since the announcement of the token economics, Scroll has been facing doubts about "kneeling to CEX."Author: Mensh, ChainCatcher
Editor: Nianqing, ChainCatcher
Yesterday, SCR officially launched as Binance's first pre-market trading project. After opening, it experienced significant fluctuations and is currently consolidating around $1.1. As of the time of writing, the pre-market trading price of SCR is $1.186.
On October 8, Binance and Scroll announced that the SCR token would become Binance's first pre-market trading project and revealed its tokenomics. Following the announcement, voices in the community questioned whether the low airdrop allocation and high Launchpool allocation were meant to curry favor with Binance. In response, Scroll's core contributor Sandy tweeted that Binance is the best channel for achieving global distribution, as it will connect upstream and downstream channels to help Scroll develop to the next stage, especially in emerging markets. Scroll's ETH deposits and withdrawals are now live on Binance, and soon, stablecoin support on Scroll will also be directly available on Binance. This listing on Binance will help Scroll achieve global expansion.
Subsequently, Scroll co-founder Zhang Ye also tweeted to refute the "kneeling to CEX" viewpoint. He stated that this is a strategic decision to build partnerships to promote growth and gain broader support, and that Binance provides substantial support for the entry and exit of stablecoins. Furthermore, the timing for issuing tokens is completely different from the situations faced by ETH, Arbitrum, and Optimism, as CEX does not have the same leverage in allocation. He also explained that the Launchpool budget comes from growth, not community airdrops, and will not affect community rights. Token distribution is not a one-time event; it is a growth lever, and project development requires long-term growth. The Scroll technical roadmap and the next phase of ecological growth plans will be released in the coming weeks.
However, this response seems to have failed to quell the divisions within the community. In response, three co-founders of Scroll will go live in the community at 3 PM Beijing time tomorrow to address recent questions regarding the SCR release.
So, how is the Scroll token specifically allocated?
Quick Overview of Scroll Tokenomics
The total supply of SCR is 1 billion tokens, with an initial circulating supply of 190 million tokens (19.00% of the total). In the distribution of Scroll tokens, airdrops account for 15%, ecosystem and growth account for 35%, and the Scroll DAO treasury accounts for 10%. Of this, 2% will be in circulation at TGE, while the remaining 8% will be evenly unlocked over four years after TGE. Binance's Launchpool accounts for 5.5%, and of the remaining 19.5%, 2.5% will be in circulation at TGE, with the remaining 17% evenly unlocked over four years after TGE. The Scroll Foundation accounts for 10%, with 2% in circulation at TGE and the remaining 8% evenly unlocked over four years after TGE. Core contributors account for 23%, starting to unlock one year after TGE and fully unlocking over four years, while investors account for 17%, starting to unlock one year after TGE and fully unlocking over four years.
The initial circulating supply consists of 7% from the first airdrop, 2% from Scroll DAO, 5.5% from Binance mining, 2.5% from the ecosystem, and 2% from the Scroll Foundation. The specific token distribution ratios are shown in the figure below:
https://scroll.io/blog/scr-token
https://x.com/CryptoKris666/status/1843937850229952817
In terms of mining distribution, the daily mining quota for BNB is 23.375 million tokens, accounting for 85%. The daily mining quota for FDUSD is 4.125 million tokens, accounting for 15%. The farming period runs from 2024-10-09 00:00 (UTC) to 2024-10-10 23:59 (UTC), with pre-market trading starting on 2024-10-11 10:00 (UTC).
Airdrop Situation
7% of the total supply of Scroll tokens is allocated for the first airdrop, and 8% of the total supply will be reserved for future airdrops, which are planned to take place within the next 12-18 months. The snapshot time for the airdrop is October 19, 2024, and the airdrop claim date is October 22, 2024.
The Scroll airdrop, along with ZKSync, StarkNet, and Linea, has become one of the most active airdrop activities, with airdrop ratios significantly higher than similar projects that launched earlier (ZKSync airdrop 15.6%, StarkNet 18%, Arbitrum 11.6%, Optimism 5.97%). Since the launch of the testnet, Scroll has undergone a long airdrop farming period, starting airdrop interactions in May, with TVL skyrocketing since June, requiring tasks such as using Aave, liquidity inflows, and bridging. According to preliminary data, over 78,000 users may qualify for the airdrop.
https://defillama.com/chain/Scroll
However, some are concerned that a significant portion of this is false TVL aimed at the airdrop, which may shrink after TGE. The end of the airdrop era could harm on-chain value and activity before transitioning to organic traffic.
As of October 12, 18:00, the points situation for Scroll users is shown in the figure below. It can be seen that more than half of the users have points less than 50, and more than three-quarters of the users have points less than 200, indicating that a considerable number of users have rushed to Scroll for the airdrop.
What Impact Will SCR Pre-Market Trading Have on Post-Listing Prices?
Currently, Binance has not announced the specific time for TGE. If TGE occurs before the Scroll airdrop, the circulating ratio at opening will exclude the 7% airdrop, meaning the initial circulating supply will drop from 19% to 12%. Alternatively, TGE may coincide with the timing of the Scroll airdrop, which would mean that the pre-market trading period for Scroll could be quite long, while in this case, the initial circulating supply would remain unchanged at 19%. In either scenario, Binance's Launchpool will occupy a significant proportion, accounting for at least 28.94% of the initial circulating supply. As the first project to launch pre-market trading on Binance, will having a price anchor from pre-market trading help make the official opening price more reasonable?
From a positive perspective, since the circulating tokens in the pre-market trading market only come from Binance Launchpool mining output, if this pre-market trading generates a good profit effect, it will also stimulate subsequent projects that launch on Binance Launchpool. It will also encourage more users to participate in mining on Binance Launchpool.
However, at the same time, the characteristics of SCR being "high FDV, low circulation" have led the market to classify it as an institutional coin. Several researchers have compared it to ZKsync and Taiko, believing that SCR is likely to continue to face institutional selling pressure and decline. The pre-market trading on Binance and the large proportion of airdrops attracting speculators will only lead to them becoming sellers after SCR's TGE. Currently, there is no obvious selling pressure in the pre-market trading situation.
Market Capitalization Forecast
For estimating SCR's market capitalization, we can refer to comparable projects, pre-market trading, and KOL valuations.
As another Ethereum L2, Scroll has many comparables with Taiko, using Taiko's valuation as a reference for Scroll's valuation. In the two rounds of funding that have been announced, Scroll has raised a total of $80 million. In the latest round of financing, Scroll's valuation is $1.8 billion. Although Taiko's total funding amount before TGE was only $37 million, its current FDV is about $1.7 billion, which is close to Scroll's latest round of financing valuation and can serve as a reference for Scroll's circulating market capitalization after listing.
At the same time, based on the pre-market trading markets of Bitget and AEVO, the current pre-market price of SCR is around $1.6, with an FDV valuation of $1.6 billion, which has certain reference value.
According to crypto KOL @OlimpioCrypto's prediction, Scroll's market capitalization increased by $70 million last month, and before the airdrop snapshot on October 19, the market capitalization may grow to $1.5 billion. Compared to the FDV of Zksync, Starknet, Arbitrum, and Optimism. Based on the recent listing situations of Starknet and zkSync, Scroll's valuation is unlikely to approach that of ARB and OP, but it is worth noting that Scroll's TVL is $740 million, Arbitrum's is $2.4 billion, Optimism's is $650 million, Starknet's is $240 million, and zkSync's is $860 million.
According to predictions, under neutral conditions, SCR's FDV is $1.5 billion, under pessimistic conditions it is $500 million, and under optimistic conditions it is $2 billion. The following figure shows the relative valuation data, with market data sourced from Munris and Scrollstat.
https://x.com/OlimpioCrypto/status/1843659441897402725
Overall, the volume of this Scroll airdrop is quite high. According to Rootdata, as of October 12, Scroll ranks first among the Top 100 popular Web3 projects. As the first project for pre-market trading on Binance, SCR may provide insights for the subsequent development of Binance Launchpool and the market's attitude towards institutional coins.
