Deep dive into Scroll data: What is the estimated unit price of points? Is it still worth participating after a snapshot in ten days?
The predicted unit price of points is $0.1158 per point; a new account can deposit 10 ETH points in the next ten days to catch up with the low guarantee account; the annualized return on deposits in the next ten days is 17.4%.Author: Nan Zhi, Odaily Planet Daily
Yesterday, Scroll announced the launch of Binance Launchpool, where "yield farming" users will receive a 7% token airdrop. Binance Launchpool will allocate 5.5% of the tokens, and the snapshot will only take place on October 19, meaning users still have the opportunity to participate in yield farming.
How is the value of Scroll points? What is the value of yield farming in the remaining ten days? Odaily will answer these questions in this article by extrapolating the points data.
Total Points and Value Estimation
The Scroll mainnet will go live on October 17, 2023. Odaily has counted a total of 2,495,000 addresses that have conducted one or more transactions since the mainnet launch.
(Odaily Note: Although cross-chain transactions can also earn Scroll points Marks, depositing into Aave or interacting with other official protocols will earn multiple points without risk. Therefore, it is assumed that all rational addresses will conduct at least one transaction. Addresses that are not included in the statistics are those that received funds on-chain but did not conduct any transactions; such operations carry high risks, and it is assumed that rational users will not engage in such actions. For detailed interaction rules, see “ The Era of Quality Account Interaction Has Arrived, What is the Optimal Solution for Scroll? ”)
Additionally, data from LayerHub shows a total of 3,076,903 addresses, while scrollstat shows a total of 2,552,610 addresses.
Odaily extracted 10,000 wallets that have conducted transactions to estimate the overall points situation. The distribution of points for these 10,000 wallets is shown below:
From this, it can be seen that accounts with less than 100 points are the most numerous, accounting for nearly 50%. Overall, users with less than 5,000 points make up the main group, while the proportion of higher point brackets decreases sharply.
The average score of these ten thousand addresses is 2,787 points, so the estimated total score for the entire network is 2,787 × 2,495,000 = 695 million points.
In yesterday's article “With the Launch of Binance Launchpool, What is the Reasonable Price for Scroll, the Last Step of Yield Farming on Public Chains?” we estimated the single token price to be 1.15 USDT, with a total of 70 million SCR allocated to yield farming users. Therefore, the point price can be calculated as 1.15 × 70,000,000 ÷ 695 ÷ 10^8 = 0.1158 USD / point.
The top three addresses recorded here are 0xaf8ae6955d07776ab690e565ba6fbc79b8de3a5d, 0xe93685f3bba03016f02bd1828badd6195988d950, and 0xb8ff877ed78ba520ece21b1de7843a8a57ca47cb. Readers can check their interaction status through LayerHub. Scrollstat also provides detailed information on the top 100 addresses.
Is it still possible to participate now?
Scroll officials have not provided the conversion relationship between deposit amounts and Scroll Marks. According to community backtesting, depositing 0.1 ETH for one month can yield approximately 30-50 points. Here, we calculate that 0.1 ETH can earn 1 point per day.
Assuming the officials have set a minimum guarantee, we assume that users at the 50th percentile are the minimum guarantee accounts, which means they need to obtain 100 points. Based on a deposit period of 10 days, this means they need to deposit 100 ÷ 10 ÷ 0.1 = 100 units of 0.1 ETH, which requires depositing 10 ETH over 10 days.
Assuming 5,000 points are for premium accounts, this corresponds to needing to deposit 5,000 ÷ 10 = 500 units of ETH, valued at approximately 1.2 million USD.
Based on the estimated point value of 0.1158 USD / point, earning 0.1158 USD worth of tokens for every 0.1 ETH per day translates to an annualized return of 0.1158 ÷ 0.1 ÷ 2420 × 365 = 17.4%. However, since existing users will also dilute the points in the next ten days, this yield will actually be slightly adjusted downwards, but it will still be higher than the conventional ETH yield.
