Launchpool on Binance, how to value the first ZK L2 chain Scroll?
The reasonable unit price of SCR tokens is 1.15 USDT, and 22.8% of users have points exceeding 5000.Author: Nan Zhi, Odaily Planet Daily
This afternoon, Binance announced that it will launch Scroll (SCR) on Launchpool and the pre-market trading platform, becoming the first CEX to list SCR. Korean trader @definalist posted on X platform indicating that Upbit and Bithumb have tested Scroll trading on-chain, possibly hinting that these two exchanges will also list Scroll.
Odaily will briefly analyze Scroll's business, Launchpool rules, and provide a price prediction in this article.
Scroll Overview
Scroll is an Ethereum Layer 2 scaling solution based on ZK-rollup, aimed at addressing Ethereum's scalability issues, increasing transaction speed, and reducing transaction costs.
Funding Situation
Scroll has completed three rounds of funding, including:
The last round of funding was completed in March 2023, raising $50 million, with participation from Polychain, Sequoia China, Bain Capital Crypto, Variant Fund, IOSG Ventures, and others.
The Series A funding was completed in April 2022, raising $30 million, led by Polychain, with participation from Bain Capital Crypto, Robot Ventures, Geometry, and others.
The seed round was completed in October 2021, with the amount undisclosed, and included investments from Mask Network, Inception Capital, and A&T Capital.
Key Events and Data
The Scroll mainnet launched on October 17, 2023;
Scroll launched Session Zero in April 2024, which can be understood as Scroll's official points activity or loyalty program, allowing users to earn Scroll Marks by participating in officially designated cross-chain and deposit activities;
Scroll launched Session One in June 2024, further expanding the ways to earn Scroll Marks, officially entering the points era.
According to Dune statistics, there are 208,000 unique Scroll addresses, with a TVL of $160 million. The points situation is as follows:
Launchpool Details
Start Time: SCR mining will begin on October 9 at 08:00 (UTC+8) and end on October 11 at 07:59 (UTC+8), lasting a total of two days.
Token Distribution: The total supply of SCR is 1 billion tokens, with an initial circulating supply of 190 million tokens (19%). Launchpool will allocate 55 million tokens (5.5%). The BNB mining pool will allocate 85% of the Launchpool tokens, while FDUSD will allocate the remaining 15%.
Trading Time: Binance will open the SCR pre-market on October 11 at 18:00 (UTC+8), with the spot trading opening time to be announced separately. For detailed rules and participation process regarding Binance's pre-market, please refer to "Binance's renewed efforts: Will the pre-market trading trigger a BNB flywheel effect?"
Price Estimate
The Aevo pre-market shows the latest transaction price of SCR at 1.653 USDT, corresponding to a circulating market cap of $314 million and an FDV of $1.65 billion.
Based on historical backtesting of Binance's Launchpool, the average annualized return for the past 20 Launchpool events was 103%, translating to an absolute return rate of 0.6% for two days of mining, corresponding to an SCR price of 1.15 USDT, a circulating market cap of $218 million, and an FDV of $1.15 billion. Detailed data is shown in the table below:
