Greeks.live: Most market participants are cautious about betting on this month's trend, with the at-the-money implied volatility for the month falling below 45%

ChainCatcher news, Greeks.live researcher Adam posted on social media that the U.S. economic data for October is strong, and market expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on November 8 have significantly decreased. Currently, based on the 30-day federal funds futures prices, the market's expected probability for a 25 basis point rate cut at the next meeting is 85%, while the probability of no rate cut is 15%, which is significantly lower than last month.

At the same time, in recent days, the probability of Trump being elected president has been rising significantly, and the balance of the U.S. election on November 5 is tilting towards Trump. From the options data, the market's volatility expectation for October is very low, with the at-the-money implied volatility (IV) already below 45%, while the at-the-money IV for the expiration on November 8, one week later, is 55%. This indicates that most market participants are cautious about betting on this month's market, and continuing to observe is the current mainstream sentiment.