HashKey Jeffrey: The encrypted "Golden October" is worth looking forward to

Chief Analyst of Hashkey Group, Jeffrey Ding, stated that historically, October and November are often the two months with the best returns of the year, which suggests that a small bull market may be on the horizon in the coming two months.

（Data source: coinglass）

Since 2013, in the statistics of October returns, Bitcoin has recorded 9 increases and 2 decreases out of 11 instances, with an average increase of 20.66%. The median increase ranks first among all months, reaching 21.2%, making it a "Golden October" in the crypto world. Interestingly, the return rate for September this year was 7.29%, the best level in history. Even considering the impact of the U.S. elections on the global economy, the increase in 2020 was as high as 27.7%, while in 2016 it was 14.71%.

（Data source: cryptorank）

Even for the second-largest cryptocurrency, Ethereum, October and November are also good months. The average increase in October is 6.51%, and in November, it is 2.43%. Historical data shows that starting from October, the following six months can be considered a small bull market for ETH, with positive increases, especially from January to May, where all months exceeded 30% except for April, which had an increase of 20.9%.

Moreover, the monetary policies of global economies have provided sufficient support in terms of liquidity. Firstly, the Federal Reserve announced a 50 basis point rate cut on September 18, marking the first rate cut in over four years, lowering the target range to 4.75% to 5%, officially starting a period of monetary easing. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority announced a reduction of the base rate by 0.5 basis points to 5.25% on Thursday morning (19th), effective immediately. Hong Kong's Financial Secretary, Paul Chan, stated that when U.S. interest rates are lowered, it will benefit local businesses and have a positive impact on the asset market. The Chinese government has also implemented fiscal stimulus policies by cutting interest rates and reserve requirements, providing approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity to the financial market.

However, it is worth noting that there has been a trend of worsening situations in the Middle East recently. On October 1, Iran launched nearly 200 missiles at Israel, while Israel conducted airstrikes on Hezbollah and Houthi forces in Lebanon. These events may lead to a decline in the financial markets in the near term. While we are optimistic about the subsequent market, we must also guard against the negative impacts brought by geopolitical issues.