Original Title: "Where are we in the cycle?"

Author: The DeFi Investor, Crypto KOL

Compiled by: Felix, PANews

This article will introduce which stage the current crypto cycle is in and explain why there is an optimistic outlook for the recent future.

BTC Cycle Investment Returns Are at Normal Levels for This Cycle Stage

In terms of BTC performance, this market cycle is very similar to the bull markets of 2016 and 2020.

Financial markets tend to be cyclical because human nature never changes. This is why it seems unlikely that BTC has already peaked.

The last two bull markets had two common points:

• The real BTC uptrend began about 170-180 days after the Bitcoin halving.
• The BTC cycle peak was reached about 480 days after the Bitcoin halving.

It has only been 160 days since the 2024 BTC halving event.

Given past situations, it is very likely that we are only a few weeks away from BTC resuming its uptrend.

While this assumes history will repeat itself, there is no indication that this bull market is any different.

Exchange BTC Reserves Are Declining at a Record Pace

Since January 2024, over 500,000 BTC have been withdrawn from exchanges.

When whales withdraw their tokens from exchanges, it usually indicates that they plan to hold for a while rather than sell in the short term.

The chart above shows that whales have been accumulating BTC in large amounts over the past few months.

If this accumulation continues, a supply squeeze is imminent.

Historically, Bitcoin Season Is the First Phase of Each Cycle

The above chart was created years ago but summarizes well what happened in the 2016 and 2020 cycles.

• First, BTC rebounds, and its dominance rises.
• Then, market attention begins to shift to mainstream coins (ETH, SOL, etc.).
• Finally, almost every altcoin starts to rise, regardless of market cap or fundamentals.

Recently, BTC's dominance has reached a new high in years.

This may indicate that we are still in the first phase. Historically, altcoin season only begins after BTC's dominance starts to decline. The crypto industry is about to enter the second phase.

Based on all the above charts and historical data from previous bull markets, BTC is likely to set a new all-time high in the fourth quarter.

However, there are still some macro uncertainties.

If a global economic recession begins, cryptocurrencies will be severely affected.

However, the reason a recession is unlikely in the near term is that this year is an election year in the United States.

To give Harris a chance to win the U.S. presidential election, the Democrats will do everything possible to delay it.

While a U.S. economic recession may start sometime in the next 3-4 years, it will definitely not happen in 2024.

Therefore, there is an optimistic outlook for cryptocurrencies in the fourth quarter. Hopefully, faith and patience will soon begin to pay off.