Matrixport Research: As Q4 Approaches, BTC May End Summer Consolidation

October to December has always been the strongest period for market performance, and the six-month consolidation phase may be coming to an end. BTC is likely to rebound by the end of the year, surprising many market participants.

Although BTC has been in a consolidation phase since reaching an all-time high in March 2024, the year-to-date return has also reached +49%, comparable to the historically predicted +47% return. Based on Bitcoin's performance over the past decade, if this historical trend continues, October is likely to see a significant rebound.

Fed Rate Cuts Boost Market Sentiment, Preventing Weakness in Labor Market

The Federal Reserve recently announced a 50 bp rate cut. Chairman Powell indicated to the financial markets that this decision was made because the Fed is confident that inflation will return to the 2% target level. Additionally, the rate cut is a preventive measure to avoid weakness in the labor market. Powell emphasized that the overall U.S. economy is performing well, and his relatively hawkish remarks have alleviated concerns for many investors. Although uncertainty surrounding the U.S. elections still exists, the Fed's actions have successfully maintained market momentum.

As crypto assets approach a tipping point for widespread technological adoption, BTC's fate may see a turning point in 2025. The coming weeks and months will be an exciting period of transformation for all participants in the crypto asset space.

Historical Data Shows Strong Year-End Performance for Crypto Assets, Worth Looking Forward To

Historically, the period from October to March typically sees a significant increase in market performance, with an average return of +40% over the past decade, while the period from April to September has an average return of only +27%. Similar cyclical performance has been observed in 2023 and 2024. October shows the strongest performance, with an average return of +20%, and in the past decade, there have been positive returns in eight out of ten years.

ETH Miner Fees Show Slight Rebound, Summer Consolidation May Come to an End

ETH miner fees have shown a slight rebound, indicating that the summer consolidation phase for crypto assets may be coming to an end. Whether the rebound momentum will continue requires a more detailed and rigorous analysis of ETH revenue and miner fee trends. Closely monitoring these indicators can provide insights into whether the recent rebound is sustainable. If it is not sustainable, it may indicate a new shift in the logic of market activity.