Find angles, play conspiracies, crazy Ether MEME week, who will be the winner in the end?

Author: Deep Tide TechFlow

In the past week, the on-chain market of the ETH mainnet can no longer be simply described as "lively." A statement from Old Bao about interest rate cuts has rejuvenated an already active on-chain market: every day starts with a golden dog, and by the weekend, there are even two or three waves of market activity in a single day. The mainnet Gas even soared to around 70 Gwei, making it quite expensive to breathe on-chain.

From Finding Concepts to Competing Angles, the Emotion of "No One Taking Over" Spreads to MEME

Specifically, the recent on-chain market can be accurately described as a "fragmented melee." For workers, the fleeting weekend is quite saturated and fulfilling for on-chain players.

The Doge founder's dog, Musk's "Mars City" plan, Trump coins, and various concepts with their full family of tokens are making their rounds, as if it would be a waste of this wave of on-chain emotion and liquidity not to introduce some new concepts.

However, as the market has evolved, new concepts are clearly insufficient to satisfy the enthusiasm for PVP. The Meme market has upgraded from "finding concepts" to "competing angles": as soon as a new hype concept emerges, various tokens with the same name spring up like mushrooms after rain, with new, old, big, and small angles all making their rounds.

To take a recent example, the concept of Musk's "Mars City" that exploded over the weekend has already produced several large-cap tokens: $TERMINUS (Mars City Name 1), $BAR (Mars City Name 2), various spaceships, interstellar hotels, astronaut dogs… not to mention that each coin also has to differentiate between uppercase and lowercase.

It is evident that the phenomenon of "no one taking over" has been subdivided into the Meme market, where you buy uppercase while I buy lowercase, you chase three points of D.O.G.E while I chase four points of D.O.G.E. Everyone plays their own game. The actions of various big players frantically searching for angles seem to be competing for the "final interpretation" of this narrative, until more and more people recognize this angle, ultimately achieving victory in the upgraded PVP. To avoid lifting others, everyone is indeed giving their all.

The rotation of various narratives brings about one after another multi-million market cap, and various wealth myths emerge in succession. However, in the on-chain market, where there are "wealth" stories, there are naturally also "loss" stories.

Grasping Human Weakness, Do Conspiracy Groups Also Play Psychological Warfare?

Fragile "Narratives"

Even after winning among numerous concepts and angles, the土狗 players still face many threats of "force majeure." For instance, in the concept of "V God's Dog," the token $MISHA surged from 0 to a market cap of 20 million dollars in one day, only to be halved the next day after V God stated, "I don't own a dog," leading to a frantic exit by holders during the price drop, with Gas soaring amidst the panic, and countless dreams of wealth free-falling along with the price.

Yes, some so-called "narratives" that arise instantly often do not hold up, and the fragile heat generated by a celebrity's statement can be extinguished just as quickly by another statement.

However, this "fragility of narratives" has been precisely exploited by conspiracy groups, setting up one trap after another to manipulate human nature during this passionate weekend.

Hardcore Narratives?

Compared to centralized exchanges, first-level on-chain trading is much more transparent and equipped with diverse tools, making individual operations almost transparent to those with intent. Therefore, in the on-chain world, the "struggle" in trading is more face-to-face and direct.

On Saturday, a token called $DOGGO emerged, with a trajectory that was anything but sluggish, reaching nearly 20 million dollars in market cap within four hours. While many were still enjoying their weekend sleep, $DOGGO had already completed its pump.

Upon further investigation, it turns out that the $DOGGO concept is still an OG narrative:

The founder of Dogecoin $Doge, Shibetoshi Nakamoto, is well-known among old players for having sold all his $Doge holdings long ago. This time, the $DOGGO project team also allocated 6.56% of the $DOGGO tokens to Shibetoshi Nakamoto, who indeed sold all his $DOGGO. This "sell-off" narrative has been played by many projects before, but this time Shibetoshi Nakamoto not only "sold off" but also interacted wildly on topics related to $DOGGO.

The interaction of Shibetoshi Nakamoto is seen by those with intent as an ambiguous "endorsement," while the simple and crude OG narrative of $DOGGO adds a layer of conspiracy group color. Tired of fragile narratives and PVP, Degen players couldn't resist the allure, and smart wallets began to buy in. As a result, before many could react, the price of $DOGGO soared.

With some standing on the platform and others buying in, the price rose and the market cap soared, seemingly bringing $DOGGO closer to the ultimate goal of "listing." However, the subsequent plot of $DOGGO made people once again realize that the on-chain world is not a gentle fantasy land, but rather a bloody dark forest.

From Manipulation by Whales to Community Takeover, Is the "Rebirth" Behind a Conspiracy Group's Design?

Trend Reversal After Reversal

Less than a day after $DOGGO exploded, Dogecoin founder Shibetoshi Nakamoto clearly stated that he is not responsible for any Meme coins, effectively denying his previous endorsement of $DOGGO.

Upon hearing this, players who had just learned a lesson from the fragile narrative of $MISHA might immediately become alert. What should we do now? Run! Coupled with continuous FUD statements within the community and large wallets selling off in bulk, the trend of $DOGGO shifted from a correction to a crash.

However, this time $DOGGO did not continue to plummet to zero. Instead, after many panic-sold, it quickly reversed, bringing the price back to its pre-drop level, and even announced the CTO (community takeover) the next day, as if the rapid FUD-induced drop had never happened. Even after announcing the CTO, the price of $DOGGO still faced a second drop, as if this CTO was also a conspiracy group's ploy to trap people, causing retail investors to panic again, and the market cap of $DOGGO fell back to around 6 million dollars, similar to the previous drop.

Yet just when many thought $DOGGO was truly finished, the price of $DOGGO flipped again, with the market cap rising from 6 million dollars all the way to a new high in the 20-30 million dollar range.

It seems that $DOGGO has experienced one reversal after another in just two days, from a conspiracy group to a community takeover, with trust in the community being built step by step, and the current price increase being a result of "community power."

But is it really that simple?

Not Rebirth, More Like a Washout?

After the commotion with $DOGGO, some pointed out that this event is not as simple as it appears. The so-called "rebirth" of $DOGGO seems more like a series of multiple reversals for "washing out," and the community takeover is merely an excuse for the conspiracy group's deep washout.

On-chain player @Mirro7777 stated that he was one of the targets of this $DOGGO washout, having sold about 1% of the total $DOGGO supply during a deep sell-off coordinated by the DEV with negative news late at night, turning his address from profit to loss.

At the same time, user @CryptoRugMunch, who has done extensive research on conspiracy groups, openly stated that this wave of operations by $DOGGO is a textbook case of psychological warfare by conspiracy groups:

First, crash the price + FUD to induce panic selling among retail investors → Announce CTO to temporarily stabilize the price → Then execute another deep drop to completely destroy retail investor confidence → After retail investors sell off and exit, directly pump the price to break the previous high.

Additionally, @CryptoRugMunch mentioned that the conspiracy group behind $DOGGO has never left, and each time they act is to force retail investors to surrender. Unless you enjoy being a victim of psychological warfare, there are better projects for you to choose from in the market.

Conclusion

The phenomenon of splitting concepts and angles due to issues of profit distribution or differing consensus is no longer new; the hard forks of BTC and ETH essentially share similarities. However, unlike hard forks that have a "decent" pretext, the reasons for the "splitting" of Memecoins are much more direct: it is purely for profit. If we are going to hype a concept, why should I take over for you?

In the collision of consensus and consensus, different opportunities arise, and the confrontation between conspiracy groups and community takeovers is clearly a recognized mode of resistance in the current Meme market.

The confrontation between uppercase and lowercase Neiro proves that community power also has the potential for wealth, igniting a wave of enthusiasm for community takeover narratives in the market.

It's just that we are not afraid of big cuts; we are afraid that the big cuts are even more diligent than you. From the story of $DOGGO, it can be seen that the current conspiracy groups already know how to disguise themselves with a layer of CTO.

On-chain liquidity is gradually becoming abundant, and for seasoned Degens, there is still a possibility of being targeted, let alone for most "naive" on-chain players. For the majority, the crypto world remains an unadulterated dark forest, and at the moment you FOMO in, countless addresses are already prepared to take action against you.

The market environment is always changing, but the fact that the market is a zero-sum game remains unchanged. Adapt flexibly to the situation, do not let survivor bias blind you, and do not blindly go all-in. Always remember that those who lose money are still the majority. Wishing you well.