TOKEN2049: The temperature difference increases, the strong become stronger

Author: Zhou Zhou, Foresight News

"The temperature difference has increased." said first-level investor Romeo.

This year, Romeo successfully invested in well-known cryptocurrency startups such as Solv, Puffer, and Sonic. During Token 2049, he noticed significant changes in the cryptocurrency industry. "Ecosystems like Solana, Base, and TON have become stronger and more popular, while other tracks, which may have been star projects or chosen ones before, now seem increasingly quiet."

The enthusiasm for different tracks in the crypto industry has begun to polarize. Some tracks have become more sought after, while others are still alive but have actually cooled down.

The four ecosystems of Solana, Base, TON, and BTCFi have become the "new four kings" in the minds of many practitioners in the crypto industry. The Matthew effect is beginning to emerge, with the strong getting stronger. In contrast, NFT, full-chain gaming, and (short-term) AI, which were once highly anticipated star tracks, have seen slow or even stagnant development over the past six months, facing more skepticism, with many projects even being debunked, leaving practitioners feeling more confused.

Outside the industry and tracks, other new phenomena are also occurring.

Kay, the head of Hashkey Chain, had an intuitive feeling after attending TOKEN 2049: "The confidence of Chinese entrepreneurs has become stronger."

At the Token 2049 in 2022, Chinese practitioners referred to themselves as "Web3 Jews," feeling inferior and anxious, like rootless plants, worried about having no place to settle in Asia, and fearing exclusion by Western capital and ecosystems when heading west, caught in a dilemma.

However, at the Token 2049 in 2024, Chinese entrepreneurs appeared more composed and confident. After chatting with several Chinese and Western entrepreneurs from Base, Solana, and TON, the author found that a significant portion of developers and entrepreneurs in these three ecosystems come from the Asian community, and in the BTCFi track, the Chinese community even holds an absolute dominant position.

This year, the global focus is no longer solely on the US-dominated cryptocurrency ecosystem; the Asian crypto circle, centered around Singapore, Hong Kong, Japan, and South Korea, has become a new center for innovation in the global crypto industry.

This year's Token 2049 in Singapore was still bustling and is regarded as the "Spring Festival of the crypto circle." The difference is that entrepreneurs in the rapidly developing ecosystems have become more confident and determined, while another group of practitioners has become more confused.

1. The temperature difference has increased, the strong get stronger

The four ecosystems of Solana, Base, TON, and BTCFi have become the best-performing ecosystems this year. Entrepreneurs in these four ecosystems have shown stronger confidence in the future.

Over the past year, these four major ecosystems have continuously launched innovative projects and popular applications, leading the development of the crypto track. In terms of the amount of funds attracted, user numbers, and project counts, these four ecosystems maintain a very obvious advantage. This has made them the hottest ecosystems in the market, with the strongest confidence among entrepreneurs.

Each track has several tokens that have entered the top 100 by market capitalization, with Solana-related tokens reaching as high as 7. Meanwhile, Base, TON, and BTCFi each have about 3-6 new tokens that have entered the latest top 300 cryptocurrency market capitalization.

The prosperity of the ecosystems has naturally translated into the activities held during Token 2049. During the hottest five days of Token 2049 (September 16 - September 20), Base and TON held one to two events daily, with every event fully booked; the Solana Breakpoint event was considered by many attendees to be the best, most lively, and most vibrant event outside the main venue of Token 2049.

In the previous Token 2049, these four ecosystems were still quite "weak."

At the TOKEN 2049 in 2023, Solana had just revived from the FTX incident, with its price barely stabilizing at 20 U, and Ethereum was still the dominant force in the blockchain space. Few could have predicted that in just one year, it would shake Ethereum's position again, and now many practitioners believe Solana may surpass Ethereum; four months before the last TOKEN 2049, Ordi had continuously dropped, losing four-fifths of its market value, down to 3 U, with many believing the Bitcoin ecosystem was dead. No one expected that two months later, Ordi would be listed on Binance and then soar, with the Bitcoin ecosystem experiencing waves of L2, staking, and runes.

Even less was mentioned about Base and TON, which were "invisible" during the last TOKEN 2049. However, over the past six months, they have gained firm choices from many entrepreneurs through repeated successes.

With the strong momentum of Solana, Base, TON, and BTCFi, more funds and excellent developers have been attracted, and the Matthew effect of the strong getting stronger and the weak getting weaker is becoming evident. However, outside these four ecosystems, many cryptocurrency industries and tracks have become increasingly quiet.

2. Mass Adoption, a glimmer of hope

"After seeing TADA, I was excited, feeling a glimmer of hope for mass adoption," Kay said.

At this TOKEN 2049, many practitioners were actually disappointed with the overall development of the crypto industry over the past year. There haven't been enough mass adoption products emerging. However, upon arriving at Token 2049 in Singapore, Kay and many other crypto practitioners were pleasantly surprised to discover a new way to hail a ride, allowing people to smoothly experience paying for rides with Crypto.

TADA is Singapore's second-largest ride-hailing app, which created a small program called TADA mimi on Telegram, integrating the cryptocurrency TON, allowing people to pay for rides directly with TON. Throughout Token 2049, many Web3 practitioners experienced their first real-world payment using cryptocurrency. Bitget exchange participated in this, allowing users to enjoy at least one free ride, which also encouraged more people to use TADA.

Kay had noticed TADA a few years ago when she was responsible for listing reviews at Bybit. She learned that TADA's founder is Korean and had worked in cross-border transportation in Hong Kong. Cross-border transportation and the cryptocurrency industry are closely related. TADA entered the cryptocurrency space early, with its token MVL established in 2018, currently valued at 100 million USD.

Now that Kay has joined HashKey from Bybit, she discovered that HashKey is also deeply collaborating with the TON ecosystem and is one of the earliest institutions to focus on development within the TON ecosystem. Currently, Kay is responsible for Hashkey Chain, hoping to bridge Web2 and Web3 to attract more users. As I understand, exchanges like Binance, HashKey, Bitget, OKX, Bybit, and Huobi have already deeply engaged in cooperation with TON and Telegram. This has attracted many users to exchanges that entered TON early.

Practitioners have found a potential new path for mass adoption through Telegram and the TON ecosystem, leveraging the product Telegram, which has a high overlap with Web3 practitioners and users, making the 900 million user market on Telegram highly desirable.

In some unpredictable scenarios, mass adoption products are slowly being validated.

The prediction market platform Polymarket on Polygon is breaking down barriers in the crypto industry, allowing more external participants to join, such as Bloomberg terminals integrating the prediction market Polymarket. The Polymarket market is growing rapidly; according to DefiLlama data, at the beginning of this year, the TVL was less than 10 million USD, but by September, Polymarket's TVL had surpassed 110 million USD.

An engineer from Polygon revealed to me: Polygon places great importance on Polymarket and has invested many resources while actively embracing new prediction market platforms. Other ecosystems have also recognized the potential of this market, with platforms like Blast, TON, Base, Wintermute, DYDY, and BitMEX recently launching prediction markets. From what I learned at this conference, even more ecosystem projects are incorporating prediction markets into their products.

In addition to prediction markets, I also engaged in discussions with Taki, a Korean entrepreneur from the Warpcast ecosystem, and Yawn, the founder of StepN, which is most likely to achieve mass adoption in the last cycle. They both have deeper thoughts on Web3 social and whether social can achieve mass adoption of blockchain products.

Web3 social remains an imaginative market; although there are constant failures, more participants are innovating in this track. Yawn mentioned friend tech and shared his thoughts on Web3 social. "How to do connect to earn well, making social fun through maps, without collapsing the entire ecosystem's economy, is a topic that needs further thought and validation," Yawn said.

3. Confusion still lingers at TOKEN 2049

Although the strong rise of Solana, Base, TON, and BTCFi over the past year has brought much confidence to practitioners, many still feel confused about the future, especially after four months of continuous lows following the halving, which has hit many practitioners hard.

Investors are confused. This year, there are very few "VC coins" that have outperformed BTC, while Meme coins have outperformed many so-called "value coins." Statistics show that only 42 projects have performed better than BTC this year, with 11 of the top 15 being Meme coins, making so-called value investing a joke.

Entrepreneurs are also confused. Many hot tracks are being debunked this year, including full-chain gaming, NFTs, Web3 social, and most Ethereum L2s… After being repeatedly thwarted for six months, the development of these tracks has slowed or stagnated, leaving practitioners feeling pessimistic and confused.

During this TOKEN 2049, I observed that many "serious" project teams and investors have begun to invest in meme-related tracks.

"98% of AI+Web3 applications have been debunked," first-level investor Romeo told me. "I am very optimistic about the future of AI and Crypto; I believe there will definitely be an AI project that rivals Ethereum, but the current AI projects are all memes." Romeo stated bluntly.

When asked why he doesn't invest in social, Romeo said, "Doing Web3 social is too difficult; this track often has only one winner. Can a track with only one winner still be called a track?"

Investors are confused, entrepreneurs are confused, and builders and retail investors are even more confused.

One after another, so-called new tracks representing the future of the crypto industry rise and then rapidly fall. Watching them build their grand towers, host their banquets, and then see their towers collapse. Too many tracks and projects are hyped up and then debunked within a short period. Especially in the four months after the halving, many secondary investors believe the crypto market is hellishly difficult.

4. The awakening of Chinese crypto power, the rise of a multi-center ecosystem in Asia

During this TOKEN 2049, more and more Chinese teams showcased their strengths on the best stage.

The largest contract platform in the Base ecosystem, SynFutures, was created by a Chinese team, and many employees appeared at events hosted by Base; one of the largest Web3 games in the TON ecosystem, Catizen, was created by Chinese, and they were active at events organized by TON; the largest DEX in the Solana ecosystem, Jupiter, and the first L2, Sonic, were also founded by Chinese, and they were active in various major Solana events…

Exchanges, RWA, stablecoins, blockchain ecosystems… Almost every scene has the deep involvement of Chinese teams, not missing any potentially successful crypto track.

In 2022, the Chinese crypto ecosystem was in a very weak position, as almost all noteworthy innovations came from Europe and America, with the US dominating the narrative of the entire crypto industry. However, in this cycle, I see Chinese teams occupying core positions in various hot tracks, not being eliminated. They even organized themselves and successfully pulled up the Bitcoin ecosystem as a major track.

During TOKEN 2049, I also met many entrepreneurs and investors from South Korea, Japan, Singapore, and Hong Kong. These four Asian crypto ecosystems exhibited very different characteristics.

The market sentiment in South Korea is high, with Upbit becoming the strongest exchange in terms of listing effects, even surpassing Binance and Coinbase in this regard. The Japanese Web3 ecosystem is rapidly rising; at the StepN walking event, I saw many loyal users from Japan, and institutions like Sony and SoftBank have also made moves in the crypto industry in recent months, with the Japanese crypto ecosystem considered to have the opportunity to become the next rising crypto ecosystem.

The markets in Singapore and Hong Kong are also developing in different directions. The Singapore market is boldly experimenting in institutional business, with a forward-looking vision. An executive from a Singapore bank told me that 20% of the business in his fintech department already comes from Crypto, with rapid business growth. The combination of TADA and TON has also surprised many Web3 attendees. The Hong Kong market, backed by China, has greater imagination and expectations if breakthroughs occur in RWA, stablecoins, and other scenarios.

The Asian crypto circle, centered around Singapore, Hong Kong, Japan, and South Korea, has become a new center for innovation in the global crypto industry.

The crypto industry is like a giant puzzle; no one can accurately know its full picture, but through TOKEN 2049 as an "information center," its true landscape is gradually unfolding.