Hotcoin Research | Market Insights: September 9-13, 2024
Cryptocurrency Market Performance
Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $2.048 trillion, with BTC accounting for 56.14%, which is $1.15 trillion. The market cap of stablecoins is $170.1 billion.
This week, BTC's price showed a fluctuating upward trend, with the current price of BTC at $60,365 and ETH at $2,430. Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most experienced a general rise, including: CKB with a 7-day increase of 80.25% and QNT with a 7-day increase of 27.92%.
On September 14, according to CME's "FedWatch" data, as of the time of writing, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points or 50 basis points in September is both 50%.
With the certainty of rate cuts and the restoration of liquidity, market sentiment has eased, with optimism for the overall market trend in the fourth quarter.
On September 13, the "Fear & Greed Index" was at 32 (up from last week), with this week's sentiment: 7 days of fear.
Understanding the Present
Weekly Major Events Recap
On September 9, Fractal Bitcoin announced the FB tokenomics, with 80% allocated to community distribution;
Fractal Bitcoin: PizzaSwap will activate at block 21000, and network governance will use OP_CAT;
After the developers of Friend.Tech relinquished control over the smart contracts, the platform is now in a "basically closed" state;
Aave co-founder Stani: A customized market will be launched on the Ethereum mainnet in the coming weeks;
USDe supply has dropped below 2.7 billion coins, a decrease of about 25.5% from its peak;
a16z Crypto's crypto startup accelerator has launched, announcing 21 participating projects;
On September 10, Harris released a proposed policy stance list but did not mention cryptocurrencies;
DeFi movements: Multi-chain DEX Bebop saw a 427% increase in 24-hour trading volume, and FlowX Finance saw a 67.23% increase in 24-hour trading volume;
Top news: Multicoin Capital has established a large DRIFT position through private placements and public markets;
On September 13, DeFi movements: Sui chain DEX Flow Finance saw a 106% increase in 24-hour trading volume, and 7K Aggregator saw an 87% increase in 24-hour trading volume.
Macroeconomics
On September 9, local media Nairametrics reported that Nigeria's Securities and Exchange Commission Director Emomotimi Agama announced actions against individuals and cryptocurrency exchanges that do not comply with its regulatory framework, promising to protect investors;
On September 10, BeInCrypto reported that the SEC has imposed $4.68 billion in cryptocurrency fines so far in 2024, an increase of 3,018% from the previous year. The fines include various economic penalties such as asset forfeiture, recovery of illegal gains, civil penalties, settlements, and pre-judgment interest;
On September 14, according to CME's "FedWatch" data, as of the time of writing, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points or 50 basis points in September is both 50%.
ETF
According to statistics, from September 9 to September 13, the net inflow of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs was $403.7 million; as of September 13, GBTC (Grayscale) had a total outflow of $20.04 billion, currently holding $13.279 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $21.373 billion. The total market cap of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs is $55.955 billion.
The net outflow of U.S. Ethereum spot ETFs was $12.9 million.
Foreseeing the Future
Upcoming Events
TOKEN2049 Singapore 2024 will be held from September 18 to 19, aiming to define the next steps in the Web3 space;
Permissionless III, hosted by Blockworks, will take place from October 9 to 11 in Salt Lake City, Utah, USA, offering panel discussions, networking opportunities, and more.
Project Progress
The Eigen Foundation announced that the second season of Stakedrop is about to unlock, rewarding key contributors and participants in the ecosystem, including stakers and operators, ecosystem partners, and the community. The total amount of EIGEN allocated to stakers and operators in the second season is approximately 70 million EIGEN (about 4.2% FDV); the total allocation for ecosystem partners is up to 10 million EIGEN (about 0.6% FDV); the total community allocation is approximately 6 million EIGEN (about 0.35% FDV). Token claims will open on or before September 17;
The DeFi protocol Sky (formerly MakerDAO) announced that starting September 18, eligible users can upgrade DAI to USDS at a 1:1 ratio, or exchange supported cryptocurrencies for USDS, unlocking Sky token rewards in the form of SKY tokens and Sky Savings Rate;
The decentralized derivatives trading platform Rollup.Finance will cease operations, with infrastructure fully shutting down after September 21, 2024. Users will have one month to close positions and withdraw funds.
Important Events
VanEck will close and liquidate its Ethereum futures ETF "EFUT," and fund shareholders can sell their shares on the fund's listing exchange until the market closes on September 16, 2024 (which may incur trading fees from brokerage firms);
The fraud trial of former Celsius CEO Alex Mashinsky is scheduled for September 17, 2024;
The ruling date for the "hush money" case involving Trump has been postponed from the originally scheduled July 11 to September 18. Trump thus becomes the first former president in U.S. history to be convicted in a criminal case. On May 30, a jury of 12 found that Trump concealed a $130,000 "hush money" payment to a pornographic actress during the 2016 U.S. presidential election, falsifying business records and violating New York state laws, with 34 criminal charges being established;
The confirmation hearing for the Chapter 11 bankruptcy reorganization plan of Terraform Labs Pte Ltd (TFL) and Terraform Labs Limited (TLL) is scheduled for September 19, 2024, at 22:00 Beijing time;
The decentralized derivatives trading platform Rollup.Finance will cease operations, with infrastructure fully shutting down after September 21, 2024. Users will have one month to close positions and withdraw funds.
Token Unlocking
Arbitrum (ARB) will unlock 92.65 million tokens on September 16, valued at approximately $47.72 million, accounting for 2.65% of the circulating supply;
ApeCoin (APE) will unlock 15.6 million tokens on September 17, valued at approximately $11.76 million, accounting for 2.31% of the circulating supply.
About Us
Hotcoin Research, as the core investment research department of Hotcoin, is dedicated to providing detailed and professional analysis for the cryptocurrency market. Our goal is to offer clear market insights and practical operational guidance for investors at different levels. Our professional content includes the "Play to Earn Web3" tutorial series, in-depth analysis of cryptocurrency industry trends, detailed breakdowns of potential projects, and real-time market observations. Whether you are a newcomer exploring the crypto space for the first time or a seasoned investor seeking in-depth insights, Hotcoin will be your reliable partner in understanding and seizing market opportunities.
