How do the price performances of various CEX tokens compare?

Author: Simplicity Group

Compiled by: Deep Tide TechFlow

Listing on key CEXs is the biggest expectation for many people holding coins in anticipation of price increases.

However, many times, the act of listing a coin is not something that can guarantee profits just by qualitative analysis. When you enter and exit the market, which types of coins you hold, and many specific choices all determine the final size of your returns.

Therefore, you may want to know the answers to the following questions:

Does being listed on Binance necessarily mean there will be a wealth effect? Do other CEXs not have a wealth effect? After how long does the wealth effect start to diminish?

You should have a clear idea about these questions.

Last week, the research institution Simplicity Group (@SimplicityWeb3) conducted a detailed statistical analysis of the performance of over 30 tokens listed on seven common CEXs: Binance, OKX, Bybit, Kucoin, Coinbase, Gate, and MEXC, one week after their listing.

Deep Tide TechFlow has summarized the essence of this 60-page report and presents the key analyses to everyone.

Key Conclusions

Price Trends

Most tokens experience significant price increases within 24 hours of listing;

Typically, a correction begins on the second day;

Tokens listed on exchanges with smaller increases tend to have more stable prices at higher levels;

Conversely, tokens listed on exchanges that experience large increases often see severe corrections afterward;

Differences Between Exchanges

Some exchanges show remarkably similar price trends for their tokens, while others exhibit greater variability;

Researchers are still uncertain about the specific reasons for this phenomenon;

Importance of Listing Timing

If an exchange lists a token a few hours or days later than others, the price performance on that exchange tends to be worse;

Outliers

The number of outliers varies significantly between exchanges;

This indicates that the internal due diligence processes of exchanges are crucial for the overall performance of their listed tokens;

Main Recommendations

The reputation of an exchange should not be directly linked to potential price performance;

Binance

First Day Performance

The vast majority of tokens see significant increases on their first day of listing;

The average increase is about 66%, with some tokens rising over 200%;

This phenomenon may stem from high attention and investment enthusiasm at the time of new coin listings;

Second Day Market

Price increases begin to slow, with some tokens experiencing corrections;

The range of price fluctuations expands, varying from -15% to +214%;

This may reflect that some investors start to take profits, while new investors also enter the market;

Trends from the Third Day to One Week

Price fluctuations gradually stabilize;

The price change range on the third day is between -27% and +164%;

By the end of the week, most tokens still maintain positive growth, with a median increase of about 15%;

Tokens with Abnormal Performance

A few tokens, such as BONK, APE, ICP, JTO, and SUI, exhibit unusually large price fluctuations;

The performance of these tokens significantly deviates from the average and may require separate analysis of the underlying reasons;

Price Change Distribution

The price changes on the first day of listing are the most dramatic, with a median increase of 66.15%;

In the following days, the magnitude and range of price changes gradually narrow;

This indicates that the market's valuation of new coins is becoming more rational;

Overall Trend Observation

Tokens listed on Binance generally show a "rise then stabilize" trend;

The high increases in the early stages of listing are often difficult to sustain, but most tokens can still maintain positive growth after a week;

Prices gradually stabilize after experiencing initial dramatic fluctuations;

Investor Insights

There may be short-term profit opportunities in the early stages of listing, but they come with high risks;

Token prices may experience significant fluctuations within a week after listing, and investors need to be mentally prepared;

For long-term investors, it may be necessary to wait for prices to stabilize before making decisions;

Bybit

First Day Performance

The average increase reaches 806.34%, but this figure is significantly influenced by a few exceptionally performing tokens;

The median increase is 45.71%, which better represents the performance of typical tokens;

25% of tokens have increases exceeding 1685.71%, showing remarkable performances from some tokens;

The highest increase reaches 4900%, while the lowest increase is 0.94%, indicating huge performance disparities;

Second Day Market

Price increases significantly slow down, with the average increase dropping to 273.04%;

The median increase falls to 27.37%, indicating that most tokens cannot maintain the high increases of the first day;

The range of price fluctuations expands, with the lowest at -9.51% and the highest still reaching 1698%;

Volatility remains high, but is lower than on the first day;

Trends from the Third Day to One Week

The average increase on the third day further drops to 234.88%, with a median of 25%;

After one week, the average increase is 207.56%, with the median dropping to 16.96%;

Price fluctuations gradually stabilize but remain relatively high;

Tokens with Abnormal Performance

JTO stands out, maintaining an unusually high Z-score throughout the observation period;

IMX also performs well, especially on the first day and one week later;

BICO shows a significant peak on the second day but then declines;

Price Change Distribution

The price changes on the first day are the most dramatic, with most tokens (the middle 50%) seeing increases between 4.6% and 1685.7%;

In the following days, the magnitude and range of price changes gradually narrow;

By the end of the week, 75% of tokens still maintain positive growth, indicating an overall upward trend;

Overall Trend Observation

Tokens listed on Bybit generally show a "high open, low close" trend but remain at high levels;

The high increases in the early stages of listing are difficult to sustain, but most tokens can still maintain positive growth after a week;

Price volatility decreases over time but remains higher than in conventional markets;

Investor Insights

There may be huge short-term profit opportunities on the first day of listing, but the risks are correspondingly high;

Investors need to be cautious of significant price fluctuations in the short term;

For long-term investors, it may be necessary to wait for prices to stabilize before making decisions;

Data Limitations

The analysis is based on a limited sample of 17 tokens, which may not fully represent all tokens listed on Bybit;

The exceptional performances of certain tokens (like JTO and IMX) significantly influence the overall data, requiring cautious interpretation of averages;

Missing data for some tokens may affect the comprehensiveness of the analysis;

OKX

First Day Performance

The average increase is 59.33%;

The median increase is 39.13%, which better represents the performance of typical tokens;

25% of tokens have increases exceeding 74.06%;

The highest increase reaches 292%, while the lowest increase is 0%, indicating significant performance disparities;

Second Day Market

Price increases slow down, with the average increase dropping to 36.94%;

The median increase falls to 26.85%, indicating that most tokens struggle to maintain the increases of the first day;

The range of price fluctuations expands, with the lowest at -17.20% and the highest at 212%;

Volatility remains present but is lower than on the first day;

Trends from the Third Day to One Week

The average increase on the third day further drops to 32.98%, with a median of 25.91%;

After one week, the average increase is 32.52%, with the median dropping to 20.95%;

Price fluctuations gradually stabilize but still maintain relatively stable positive growth;

Tokens with Abnormal Performance

IMX stands out, maintaining an unusually high Z-score throughout the observation period;

BICO shows a significant peak on the second day but then declines;

BLUR also exhibits high volatility but remains within statistically normal ranges;

Price Change Distribution

Price changes on the first day are relatively concentrated, with 75% of tokens seeing increases below 74.06%;

In the following days, the magnitude of price changes gradually narrows;

By the end of the week, over 75% of tokens maintain positive growth, with the highest increase reaching 187.97%;

Overall Trend Observation

Tokens listed on OKX show a relatively stable growth trend;

Although the increases in the early stages of listing are not as extreme as those on Bybit, they are still considerable;

Price volatility decreases over time, indicating good stability;

Investor Insights

There are profit opportunities on the first day of listing, with relatively low risks;

Investors need to pay attention to short-term price fluctuations, but the overall volatility is less than that of Bybit;

For long-term investors, tokens listed on OKX may provide more stable growth opportunities;

Data Limitations

IMX's performance is particularly outstanding, with an increase exceeding 100,000% on the first day of listing;

Tokens like IMX, AGLD, APE, BICO, BLUR, SUI, ENS, and SHIB were removed due to their exceptional performances, which may affect the analysis of extreme cases;

Kucoin

1. First Day Performance

The average increase is 100.27%, with a median increase of 57.76%, which better represents the performance of typical tokens;

25% of tokens have increases exceeding 135.95%;

The highest increase reaches 425%, while the lowest increase is 0%, indicating significant performance disparities;

2. Second Day Market

Price increases slow down, with the average increase dropping to 82.54%;

The median increase falls to 44.58%, indicating that most tokens struggle to maintain the high increases of the first day;

The range of price fluctuations expands, with the lowest at -2.47% and the highest at 435.14%;

Volatility remains high but is lower than on the first day;

3. Trends from the Third Day to One Week

The average increase on the third day further drops to 67.59%, with a median of 40.68%;

After one week, the average increase is 61.96%, with the median dropping to 48.49%;

Price fluctuations gradually stabilize but remain relatively high;

4. Tokens with Abnormal Performance

MASK performs exceptionally well on the first day, with a Z-score of 5.47;

JTO performs outstandingly after the second day, with a Z-score consistently above 5;

These outliers significantly affect the overall data distribution;

5. Price Change Distribution

Price changes on the first day are the most dramatic, with 25% to 75% of tokens seeing increases between 39.98% and 135.95%;

In the following days, the magnitude of price changes gradually narrows;

By the end of the week, 75% of tokens still maintain increases above 83.50%;

6. Overall Trend Observation

Tokens listed on KuCoin generally show a "high open, high rise" trend;

The high increases in the early stages of listing are difficult to sustain, but most tokens can still maintain considerable positive growth after a week;

Price volatility decreases over time but remains at high levels;

7. Investor Insights

There are huge short-term profit opportunities on the first day of listing, with average increases exceeding 100%;

Investors need to be cautious of significant price fluctuations in the short term, especially the potential corrections that may occur on the second day;

For long-term investors, prices remain high a week later, potentially providing good holding returns;

8. Data Limitations

The analysis involves 26 tokens, and the significant performances of some outlier tokens (like MASK and JTO) notably affect the overall data, requiring cautious interpretation of averages;

Analysis after removing some outliers may underestimate the probability of extreme cases;

Coinbase

First Day Performance

The average increase is 24.41%; the median increase is 3.90%, indicating that most tokens have relatively mild increases;

25% of tokens have increases exceeding 16.68%;

The highest increase reaches 268.36%, while the lowest increase is 0%, indicating significant performance disparities;

Second Day Market

Price increases slightly improve, with the average increase rising to 26.21%;

The median increase rises to 5.96%, indicating an overall improvement in performance;

The range of price fluctuations expands, with the lowest at -31.51% and the highest at 209.16%;

Volatility remains relatively high but is more dispersed than on the first day;

Trends from the Third Day to One Week

The average increase on the third day drops to 10.87%, with a median of -0.15%;

After one week, the average decrease is 1.87%, with the median decrease being 4.36%;

Price fluctuations gradually stabilize but show an overall downward trend;

Tokens with Abnormal Performance

ACH performs outstandingly on the third day and one week later, with Z-scores of 3.64 and 5.06 (the larger this metric, the more abnormal the price compared to other tokens);

CLV performs well on the first day and third day, with Z-scores of 2.26 and 3.63;

SHIB shows abnormal performance in the first two days, with Z-scores close to 5;

Price Change Distribution

Price changes on the first day are the most dramatic, with 25% to 75% of tokens seeing increases between 1.28% and 16.68%;

On the second day, the range of price changes expands, with 25% to 75% of tokens seeing increases between -0.52% and 17.98%;

By the end of the week, 75% of tokens have decreases not exceeding 6.20%;

Overall Trend Observation

Tokens listed on Coinbase show a "rise then fall" trend;

The increases in the early stages of listing are relatively mild, which may be related to Coinbase's delayed listing strategy;

Price volatility decreases over time but the overall trend turns downward;

Investor Insights

There are profit opportunities on the first and second days of listing, but the increases are relatively mild compared to other exchanges;

Investors need to be cautious of price fluctuations in the short term, especially the potential declines that may occur after the third day;

For long-term investors, prices are generally lower than the listing price a week later, requiring careful assessment;

Uniqueness of Coinbase

Coinbase adopts a delayed listing strategy, possibly to minimize volatility and comply with regulatory requirements;

This strategy may lead to the initial prices of tokens on Coinbase being higher than on other exchanges, affecting short-term performance;

The case of the APE token shows that Coinbase's delayed listing may lead to significant differences in price performance compared to other exchanges;

Data Limitations

This analysis is based on a sample of 31 tokens, and the significant performances of some outlier tokens (like ACH, CLV, and SHIB) notably affect the overall data, requiring cautious interpretation;

Coinbase's delayed listing strategy may lead to some data being not fully comparable;

Gate.io

First Day Performance

The average increase is 82.88%; the median increase is 39.46%, indicating significant increases for most tokens;

75% of tokens have increases exceeding 14.19%;

The highest increase reaches 538.89%, while the lowest increase is 0%, indicating huge performance disparities;

Second Day Market

Price increases slightly decline, with the average increase dropping to 33.18%;

The median increase falls to 10.35%, indicating an overall correction in performance;

The range of price fluctuations expands, with the lowest at -67.00% and the highest at 440.00%;

Volatility remains high but is lower than on the first day;

Trends from the Third Day to One Week

The average increase on the third day drops to 17.44%, with a median of 9.50%;

After one week, the average increase is 0.54%, with the median decrease being 6.35%;

Price fluctuations gradually stabilize but show an overall downward trend;

Tokens with Abnormal Performance

ICP shows exceptionally high performance on the first day, with a Z-score of 5.22;

BONK performs well on the second day, with a Z-score of 4.29;

ERN performs well on the third day and one week later, with Z-scores of 3.29 and 3.33, respectively;

Price Change Distribution

Price changes on the first day are the most dramatic, with 25% to 75% of tokens seeing increases between 14.19% and 87.06%;

On the second day, the range of price changes narrows, with 25% to 75% of tokens seeing increases between -9.01% and 20.65%;

By the end of the week, 75% of tokens have decreases not exceeding 20.62%;

Overall Trend Observation

Tokens listed on Gate.io show a trend of rising then falling;

The increases in the early stages of listing are very strong but quickly decline;

Price volatility decreases over time but the overall trend turns downward;

Investor Insights

There are huge short-term profit opportunities on the first day of listing, with average increases exceeding 80%;

Investors need to be cautious of significant price fluctuations in the short term, especially the potential significant corrections that may occur on the second day;

For long-term investors, prices are generally close to or below the listing price a week later, requiring careful assessment;

Uniqueness of Gate.io

Tokens on Gate.io show very strong initial performance but also face significant downside risks;

About 29.4% of tokens are classified as outliers, indicating huge performance disparities among tokens on Gate.io;

After removing outliers, the remaining tokens' performance is closer to "average" levels, but may underestimate the probability of extreme cases;

Data Limitations

The original sample includes 34 tokens, but the analysis is primarily based on 24 tokens after removing outliers;

The presence of numerous outliers may lead to analysis results that do not fully reflect the true situation;

Consideration should be given to the possibility that Gate.io has unique listing strategies or market characteristics that affect token performance;

MEXC

First Day Performance

The average increase is 405.09%; the median increase is 277.90%, indicating extremely significant increases for most tokens;

75% of tokens have increases exceeding 153.32%;

The highest increase reaches 1680.0%, while the lowest decrease is 64.0%, indicating huge performance disparities;

Second Day Market

Price increases slightly decline, with the average increase dropping to 390.49%;

The median increase falls to 236.67%, but remains high;

The range of price fluctuations expands, with the lowest at -90.0% and the highest at 1610.8%;

Volatility remains high but is slightly lower than on the first day;

Trends from the Third Day to One Week

The average increase on the third day drops to 376.98%, with a median of 266.63%;

After one week, the average increase is 330.83%, with the median dropping to 242.50%;

Price fluctuations gradually stabilize but overall maintain high increases;

Tokens with Abnormal Performance

BLUR shows exceptionally high performance on the first day, with a Z-score of 3.35;

BONK performs well on the third day, with a Z-score of 3.84;

IMX performs well one week later, with a Z-score of 4.44;

Price Change Distribution

Price changes on the first day are the most dramatic, with 25% to 75% of tokens seeing increases between 153.32% and 402.98%;

On the second day, the range of price changes narrows slightly, with 25% to 75% of tokens seeing increases between 152.28% and 390.00%;

By the end of the week, 75% of tokens still have increases exceeding 121.33%;

Overall Trend Observation

Tokens listed on MEXC show a sustained strong upward trend;

The increases in the early stages of listing are extremely strong, followed by a slight decline but still maintaining high levels;

Price volatility decreases over time but overall maintains a significant upward trend;

Investor Insights

There are huge short-term profit opportunities on the first day of listing, with average increases exceeding 400%;

Investors need to be cautious of significant price fluctuations in the short term, but the overall trend is strong;

For long-term investors, prices generally remain above the listing price after one week, indicating sustained market interest;

Uniqueness of MEXC

Tokens on MEXC show extremely strong initial performance, and this strength lasts for a long time;

Even after one week, most tokens still maintain significant increases, indicating that MEXC may have a unique market environment or user base;

Compared to other exchanges, tokens on MEXC exhibit more persistent upward momentum;

Data Limitations

The analysis is based on a sample of 27 tokens, and some tokens (like SHIB) may show outliers due to data processing issues, requiring cautious interpretation;

Extremely high increases and durations may reflect MEXC's unique market environment and may not apply to other exchanges;

Comprehensive Comparison of Exchanges

Overall Performance Ranking (Average Increase After One Week)

ByBit (539.57%)

MEXC (330.83%)

Kucoin (152.30%)

OKX (174.77%)

GATE (86.79%)

Binance (17.61%)

Coinbase (-1.87%)

First Day Performance

ByBit performs the best, with an average increase of 2738.83%;

OKX and Kucoin follow closely with 630.61% and 603.05%, respectively;

GATE and MEXC also perform strongly, with 414.94% and 405.09%, respectively;

Binance and Coinbase show relatively conservative performances, with 111.18% and 24.41%, respectively;

Price Volatility Trends

ByBit: Extremely high increases on the first day, followed by a rapid decline but still maintaining high levels;

OKX and Kucoin: Significant increases on the first day, followed by considerable declines;

MEXC: High increases on the first day, with subsequent declines relatively slow, maintaining high levels;

GATE: Shows a moderate but sustained upward trend;

Binance and Coinbase: Relatively small fluctuations, with a more stable trend;

Sustainability

MEXC shows the best sustainability, maintaining high increases from the first day to one week later;

ByBit, while having the highest initial increase, also experiences the most severe declines;

OKX and Kucoin perform strongly in the early stages but struggle to maintain high increases;

GATE shows stable medium-level performance;

Binance and Coinbase exhibit small fluctuations, but overall increases are limited;

Risks and Volatility

ByBit shows the highest risk and volatility;

OKX, Kucoin, and MEXC also exhibit high volatility;

GATE is at a medium level of volatility;

Binance and Coinbase show the lowest volatility, with relatively low risks;

Special Observations

After removing outliers, significant performance differences remain among exchanges;

ByBit's extreme performance may reflect its unique listing strategies or user base;

MEXC stands out in terms of sustainability;

Binance and Coinbase may be more focused on the initial listings of mainstream tokens, hence their relatively conservative performances;

Investor Insights

Short-term speculators may be attracted by the high initial increases on ByBit, OKX, and Kucoin;

Mid-term investors may prefer MEXC due to its good sustainability;

Risk-averse investors may choose Binance or Coinbase;

GATE may suit investors seeking a balance between risk and return;

Note: All data in this article represents the views of the original report authors and does not represent the views of Deep Tide TechFlow.