The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision and economic projections summary next Thursday at 2 PM, and analysts have differing opinions on the extent of the rate cut

ChainCatcher message, according to the schedule, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision and economic projections next Thursday at 2 PM. Traders are pricing in nearly equal chances of a 25 basis point and a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week. The shifting bets reflect one of the key issues facing today's market: whether the Federal Reserve will aggressively cut rates to prevent a weakening labor market or take a slower approach to maintain a wait-and-see stance.

Federal funds futures pricing shows that the Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by more than two percentage points over the next 12 months, a scenario that is rarely seen outside of a recession. James St. Aubin, Chief Investment Officer of Ocean Park Asset Management, which manages $5.3 billion in assets, stated, "With the S&P 500 near historical highs and credit spreads narrowing, it seems that a major rate cut to kick off a rate-cutting cycle would only happen if the Federal Reserve knows something that others do not. I believe that, in terms of market sentiment, a 50 basis point cut could do more harm than good."

In any case, even if the Federal Reserve cuts rates by 25 basis points next week, as long as Powell does not oppose the expectation of cutting rates once or even twice by 50 basis points in the last two meetings of the year, this meeting could still be viewed as a dovish rate cut.