The new coin mining has been long awaited, and the 18th issue data deeply reveals the trends of Binance Launchpool returns and strategies

Author: Nan Zhi, Odaily Planet Daily

In June this year, during a bleak market, "VC coins" were thrust into the spotlight, being blamed as the culprit for the market downturn, and Binance also halted its Launchpool after IO (io.net).

By August, Binance reopened its Launchpool, including TON and DOGS, but the yields were far from those at the beginning of the year.

Yesterday, Binance launched the Launchpool for HMSTR (Hamster Kombat) again. How is the price estimated this time? What changes have occurred in the operational strategies and data characteristics of the Launchpool compared to the beginning of the year? Odaily will answer these questions in this article by delving into the data from the past 18 periods.

Core Questions and Answers Preview

Due to the large amount of data and charts involved in the main text, this section summarizes the core questions and related conclusions as follows. Readers who are not interested in the specific process can directly check the answers:

HMSTR Price Estimation

Maintaining the average annualized yield of 108% over the past 18 periods, the dream price is 0.0593 USDT, with an initial circulating market cap of 3.817 billion USD and an FDV of 5.93 billion USD;

Maintaining the average annualized yield of 46.8% over the past 5 periods, the ideal price is 0.0256 USDT, with an initial circulating market cap of 1.648 billion USD and an FDV of 2.56 billion USD;

Referencing the initial circulating market cap of DOGS, a reasonable price would be 0.0104 USDT, with an initial circulating market cap of 671 million USD and an FDV of 1.04 billion USD.

Is the Current BNB Price Reasonable Based on Annualized Yield?

Even when calculated based on an initial circulating market cap of 671 million USD, the absolute yield for this period of HMSTR is only 0.36%, corresponding to an annualized yield of 19%, which is far below the previous average of 108%.

If we also consider the time interval of the Launchpool, the passive income from BNB has dropped to the level of stablecoins like USDT.

With BNB's burn now unrelated to Binance's profits, the Launchpool yield is the only objective measure. If similar "low Launchpool, high circulation" low-yield tokens continue to be launched, there is a risk of overvaluation for BNB itself.

Does BNB Price Still Have Launchpool Effect?

The Launchpool effect has disappeared; after the Launchpool announcement, there is no direct price surge, and in most cases, there may even be a slight decline;

Buying an hour after the announcement is more cost-effective compared to buying immediately after the announcement.

Is the Pure Mining Strategy Still Effective?

Is the strategy of "buying after the announcement to participate in the Launchpool and selling at the end" still effective during a bull market?

No, buying after the announcement will only lead to losses, making it more suitable for long-term holding, or at least choosing to hedge or borrow for short-term mining.

HMSTR Price Estimation

Absolute yield = number of reward tokens × closing price after one hour ÷ (number of staked BNB × BNB price at the start of mining), annualized yield = absolute yield ÷ mining duration × 365 days.

The annualized yields for the past 18 periods are shown in the chart below, clearly indicating a significant decline in annualized yields in recent periods.

Thus, taking the average annualized yield of the past 18 periods (108%) as the dream value and the annualized yield of the past 5 periods (46.8%) as the ideal value, we get a dream price of 0.0593 USDT and an ideal price of 0.0256 USDT.

Under the dream price, the initial circulating market cap is 3.817 billion USD, and the FDV is 5.93 billion USD;

Under the ideal price, the initial circulating market cap is 1.648 billion USD, and the FDV is 2.56 billion USD.

Even at the ideal price, the initial circulating market cap would rank 52nd among all tokens, which is very unreasonable. Rationally, the estimated annualized yield can only be significantly adjusted downward.

The reason for this unconventional figure is that HMSTR's initial circulating ratio is 64.38%, but the Launchpool only accounts for 3%. To maintain the yield, a significantly higher circulating market cap than usual is required. However, with DOGS as a precedent, which had an initial circulating ratio of 93.95% but only 4% entering the Launchpool, DOGS also had a circulating market cap of 671 million USD at launch, so HMSTR may have the potential to "create miracles."

If calculated based on DOGS' initial circulating market cap, the price should be 0.0104 USDT, with an FDV of 1.04 billion USD.

Does BNB Price Still Have Launchpool Effect?

Previously, every time Binance announced the launch of a Launchpool, BNB would "rise in advance" or surge after the announcement. Does this effect still exist now?

Assuming the coin listing announcement is made at 14:25 (or any time at 14:00), the corresponding calculation time points are defined as:

• The price at 14:00 (closing price of BNB one hour before the announcement), the price at 15:00 (closing price of BNB at the time of the announcement), and the price at 16:00 (closing price of BNB one hour after the announcement);

• Direct increase after the announcement (current period - one hour before the announcement), increase after the announcement (one hour after - current period);

• Increase difference (increase after the announcement - direct increase), negative values may indicate insufficient market confidence in new tokens or "insider" profit-taking, while positive values indicate stronger market confidence.

Other announcement times can be similarly adjusted, yielding the following data:

The following chart shows the bar graph of "direct increase after the announcement." Combining the above table, it can be seen that BNB no longer has the Launchpool effect; there is no direct price surge after the announcement, and more often it is "insider" profit-taking.

Additionally, one hour after the announcement has shifted from an increase at the beginning of the year to a decrease. If one does not buy in advance, waiting for a certain period after the announcement to buy is actually more cost-effective.

Is the Short-Term Pure Mining Strategy Still Effective?

Is the strategy of "buying after the announcement to participate in the Launchpool and selling at the end" still effective during a bull market?

Buying after the announcement and holding BNB has resulted in a decline in most cases (72%), and even if there are mining rewards to compensate, the overall losses are still significant. Therefore, it is not recommended to buy BNB for short-term mining; at least choose to hedge or borrow for short-term mining.