Investment Uncertainty | Q&A

1. Has Magic been sold?

I have never sold my Magic since I bought it. The black text in the article is a quote from a reader's comment.

I still hope our readers do not pay too much attention to how I operate, and definitely do not follow my operations completely, because my actions could very well be wrong, and the frequency of errors is quite high.

Among all the sectors I have focused on, the one with the highest returns is NFTs.

I remember in a previous article or during an online discussion, a reader asked me what the success rate of investing in NFTs is. My answer at that time was that the success rate is only about 20% to 30%, meaning that 70% to 80% of the projects I invested in ended in failure.

But why does such a low success rate bring me decent returns? Because a few projects have brought me returns that far exceed the losses from other projects.

Does this mean that to catch these 20% to 30% of projects, one does not need logic and can rely solely on guessing?

Absolutely not.

I believe that, of course, luck is needed first. But luck can probably only help us find the NFT sector at the right moment; to catch these 20% to 30% of projects within this sector still requires a certain level of logic and thinking.

So I always emphasize that the reason I share some projects is to encourage readers to focus on the thought process involved, learn from my experiences and mistakes, and develop their own methods.

If readers' focus completely shifts to the projects themselves, that would be problematic.

I have also thought: taking NFTs as an example, if I were to publicly disclose all the projects I have invested in, I can confidently say that the 20% to 30% of projects that performed the best are likely ones that no one would want to co-invest in, while many would co-invest in the 70% to 80% of projects that failed; and even if someone does co-invest in those 20% to 30% projects, it is very likely that the co-investors would not buy or sell alongside me.

For example, when I had only 15 ETH in CryptoPunks, I confidently recommended CryptoPunks to a few trusted friends, but the vast majority did not buy.

This is human nature, deep-rooted and irresistible human nature.

Therefore, I generally do not answer questions like "What coins do you hold?" or "What is the ratio?" in detail. I only respond when the coins in question can significantly illustrate a type of investment phenomenon or investment thinking.

2. Can LPT sprout new growth? Riding the AI wave, Grayscale's held coins.

I do not have a deep understanding of this coin, nor have I bought it.

In fact, I feel that readers already have an answer in their hearts when they ask this question, because they themselves mentioned that this coin is "riding the AI wave."

Since it is "riding," according to my approach of not engaging in short-term operations, I would not buy this type of coin.

Additionally, whether Grayscale or other major institutions hold a coin has never been a standard I consider for buying or holding. The holdings of these institutions are commercial behaviors that must directly face their clients.

Since they have to face clients, they, like the vast majority of Wall Street institutions, must deal with short-term considerations and profit pressures from clients. Moreover, they also have non-investment considerations based on their own interests.

These factors have little to do with whether the coins they hold have long-term potential.

Of course, I occasionally look at their Bitcoin and Ethereum holding data. But I do not look at that data to find confidence for myself; rather, I analyze the changes in their holdings to judge the flow of funds and what kind of impact this flow might have on prices.